Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win, 2004

By Jason Wojciechowski on November 28, 2004 at 7:45 AM

I've built the spreadsheet and run the numbers. Here are the Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win data for 2004, ordered alphabetically first.

MWpMD, alpha
Team Wins Losses Win % Marginal Wins Payroll Marginal Payroll Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win
Anaheim 92 70 .568 43.4 $101,084,667 $92,684,667 $2,135,591
Arizona 51 111 .315 2.4 $70,204,984 $61,804,984 $25,752,077
Atlanta 96 66 .593 47.4 $88,507,788 $80,107,788 $1,690,038
Baltimore 78 84 .481 29.4 $51,212,653 $42,812,653 $1,456,213
Boston 98 64 .605 49.4 $125,208,542 $116,808,542 $2,364,545
Chicago (A) 83 79 .512 34.4 $65,212,500 $56,812,500 $1,651,526
Chicago (N) 89 73 .549 40.4 $91,101,667 $82,701,667 $2,047,071
Cincinnati 76 86 .469 27.4 $43,067,858 $34,667,858 $1,265,250
Cleveland 80 82 .494 31.4 $34,569,300 $26,169,300 $833,417
Colorado 68 94 .420 19.4 $64,590,403 $56,190,403 $2,896,413
Detroit 72 90 .444 23.4 $46,353,554 $37,953,554 $1,621,947
Florida 83 79 .512 34.4 $42,118,042 $33,718,042 $980,176
Houston 92 70 .568 43.4 $74,666,303 $66,266,303 $1,526,873
Kansas City 58 104 .358 9.4 $47,609,000 $39,209,000 $4,171,170
Los Angeles 93 69 .574 44.4 $89,694,342 $81,294,342 $1,830,954
Milwaukee 67 94 .416 18.8 $27,518,500 $19,118,500 $1,016,069
Minnesota 92 70 .568 43.4 $53,585,000 $45,185,000 $1,041,129
Montreal 67 95 .414 18.4 $43,197,500 $34,797,500 $1,891,168
New York (A) 101 61 .623 52.4 $182,835,513 $174,435,513 $3,328,922
New York (N) 71 91 .438 22.4 $100,629,303 $92,229,303 $4,117,380
Oakland 91 71 .562 42.4 $59,825,167 $51,425,167 $1,212,858
Philadelphia 86 76 .531 37.4 $93,219,167 $84,819,167 $2,267,892
Pittsburgh 72 89 .447 23.8 $32,227,929 $23,827,929 $999,192
San Diego 87 75 .537 38.4 $54,639,503 $46,239,503 $1,204,154
San Francisco 91 71 .562 42.4 $82,019,167 $73,619,167 $1,736,301
Seattle 63 99 .389 14.4 $81,543,833 $73,143,833 $5,079,433
St. Louis 105 57 .648 56.4 $75,633,517 $67,233,517 $1,192,084
Tampa Bay 70 91 .435 21.8 $29,506,667 $21,106,667 $966,653
Texas 89 73 .549 40.4 $54,825,973 $46,425,973 $1,149,158
Toronto 67 94 .416 18.8 $50,017,000 $41,617,000 $2,211,770

Now, ordered by winning percentage:

MWpMD, win%
Team Wins Losses Win % Marginal Wins Payroll Marginal Payroll Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win
St. Louis 105 57 .648 56.4 $75,633,517 $67,233,517 $1,192,084
New York (A) 101 61 .623 52.4 $182,835,513 $174,435,513 $3,328,922
Boston 98 64 .605 49.4 $125,208,542 $116,808,542 $2,364,545
Atlanta 96 66 .593 47.4 $88,507,788 $80,107,788 $1,690,038
Los Angeles 93 69 .574 44.4 $89,694,342 $81,294,342 $1,830,954
Anaheim 92 70 .568 43.4 $101,084,667 $92,684,667 $2,135,591
Houston 92 70 .568 43.4 $74,666,303 $66,266,303 $1,526,873
Minnesota 92 70 .568 43.4 $53,585,000 $45,185,000 $1,041,129
Oakland 91 71 .562 42.4 $59,825,167 $51,425,167 $1,212,858
San Francisco 91 71 .562 42.4 $82,019,167 $73,619,167 $1,736,301
Chicago (N) 89 73 .549 40.4 $91,101,667 $82,701,667 $2,047,071
Texas 89 73 .549 40.4 $54,825,973 $46,425,973 $1,149,158
San Diego 87 75 .537 38.4 $54,639,503 $46,239,503 $1,204,154
Philadelphia 86 76 .531 37.4 $93,219,167 $84,819,167 $2,267,892
Chicago (A) 83 79 .512 34.4 $65,212,500 $56,812,500 $1,651,526
Florida 83 79 .512 34.4 $42,118,042 $33,718,042 $980,176
Cleveland 80 82 .494 31.4 $34,569,300 $26,169,300 $833,417
Baltimore 78 84 .481 29.4 $51,212,653 $42,812,653 $1,456,213
Cincinnati 76 86 .469 27.4 $43,067,858 $34,667,858 $1,265,250
Pittsburgh 72 89 .447 23.8 $32,227,929 $23,827,929 $999,192
Detroit 72 90 .444 23.4 $46,353,554 $37,953,554 $1,621,947
New York (N) 71 91 .438 22.4 $100,629,303 $92,229,303 $4,117,380
Tampa Bay 70 91 .435 21.8 $29,506,667 $21,106,667 $966,653
Colorado 68 94 .420 19.4 $64,590,403 $56,190,403 $2,896,413
Milwaukee 67 94 .416 18.8 $27,518,500 $19,118,500 $1,016,069
Toronto 67 94 .416 18.8 $50,017,000 $41,617,000 $2,211,770
Montreal 67 95 .414 18.4 $43,197,500 $34,797,500 $1,891,168
Seattle 63 99 .389 14.4 $81,543,833 $73,143,833 $5,079,433
Kansas City 58 104 .358 9.4 $47,609,000 $39,209,000 $4,171,170
Arizona 51 111 .315 2.4 $70,204,984 $61,804,984 $25,752,077

And finally, sorted by Marginal Wins per Marginal Dollar:

MWpMD, mpwmd
Team Wins Losses Win % Marginal Wins Payroll Marginal Payroll Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win
Cleveland 80 82 .494 31.4 $34,569,300 $26,169,300 $833,417
Tampa Bay 70 91 .435 21.8 $29,506,667 $21,106,667 $966,653
Florida 83 79 .512 34.4 $42,118,042 $33,718,042 $980,176
Pittsburgh 72 89 .447 23.8 $32,227,929 $23,827,929 $999,192
Milwaukee 67 94 .416 18.8 $27,518,500 $19,118,500 $1,016,069
Minnesota 92 70 .568 43.4 $53,585,000 $45,185,000 $1,041,129
Texas 89 73 .549 40.4 $54,825,973 $46,425,973 $1,149,158
St. Louis 105 57 .648 56.4 $75,633,517 $67,233,517 $1,192,084
San Diego 87 75 .537 38.4 $54,639,503 $46,239,503 $1,204,154
Oakland 91 71 .562 42.4 $59,825,167 $51,425,167 $1,212,858
Cincinnati 76 86 .469 27.4 $43,067,858 $34,667,858 $1,265,250
Baltimore 78 84 .481 29.4 $51,212,653 $42,812,653 $1,456,213
Houston 92 70 .568 43.4 $74,666,303 $66,266,303 $1,526,873
Detroit 72 90 .444 23.4 $46,353,554 $37,953,554 $1,621,947
Chicago (A) 83 79 .512 34.4 $65,212,500 $56,812,500 $1,651,526
Atlanta 96 66 .593 47.4 $88,507,788 $80,107,788 $1,690,038
San Francisco 91 71 .562 42.4 $82,019,167 $73,619,167 $1,736,301
Los Angeles 93 69 .574 44.4 $89,694,342 $81,294,342 $1,830,954
Montreal 67 95 .414 18.4 $43,197,500 $34,797,500 $1,891,168
Chicago (N) 89 73 .549 40.4 $91,101,667 $82,701,667 $2,047,071
Anaheim 92 70 .568 43.4 $101,084,667 $92,684,667 $2,135,591
Toronto 67 94 .416 18.8 $50,017,000 $41,617,000 $2,211,770
Philadelphia 86 76 .531 37.4 $93,219,167 $84,819,167 $2,267,892
Boston 98 64 .605 49.4 $125,208,542 $116,808,542 $2,364,545
Colorado 68 94 .420 19.4 $64,590,403 $56,190,403 $2,896,413
New York (A) 101 61 .623 52.4 $182,835,513 $174,435,513 $3,328,922
New York (N) 71 91 .438 22.4 $100,629,303 $92,229,303 $4,117,380
Kansas City 58 104 .358 9.4 $47,609,000 $39,209,000 $4,171,170
Seattle 63 99 .389 14.4 $81,543,833 $73,143,833 $5,079,433
Arizona 51 111 .315 2.4 $70,204,984 $61,804,984 $25,752,077

So, let's first congratulate Arizona on their accomplishment. Not since all the way back in 2003, when the Tigers actually won fewer games than a random team of minimum-wage players should, has a team put up such an astounding number. In Detroit's case, it was hard to notice, because it just turned everything negative, so that they, in some way, paid about $7 million for each loss below replacement they managed to be. Anyway, that $25, almost $26, million figure is astounding, five times worst than the next worse team and three and a half times worst the second worst team in payroll efficiency from 1995 to present, the 2002 Detroit Tigers, who won four more games than these Diamondbacks while spending about $15 million fewer bucks.

The top of the list is dominated by the usual bad teams with low payrolls: Tampa Bay, PIttsburgh, and Milwaukee are three of the top five. They're not spending much money, but they're not winning much, either. Of the three, only Milwaukee can get many people excited about their future, so these aren't your 1997-1998 Oakland A's here.

On the other hand, Cleveland's team is quite exciting, and this list shows why their front office is so well regarded in the right circles: they appear to be on their way to winning with cheap, homegrown talent. Their payroll is coming down from the excesses of the late '90's and early '00's, but their win total seems to be now moving in the opposite direction, after tracking with the payroll since 1999: 97, 90, 91, 74, 68, and then back to 80 this year. There's no reason to think they won't fight it out with the Twins for the rest of the decade, at least.

Minnesota used to lose on the cheap and now they win on the cheap. They're going to have one of the lower MDpMW numbers regardless, but right now, it's a positive one. They make their share of mistakes (Shannon Stewart), but, as slow and methodical as they are about it, they've let a number of their young players come in and have an impact (Johan Santana, Justin Morneau).

As I mentioned before, Oakland is slipping: this is the first time they've been over a million bucks per marginal win in the Beane era. That can be chalked up to two things off the top of my head: bad luck combined with overpayment to Jermaine Dye, and four disappointing lefties (Mulder, Zito, Redman, Rhodes, in order of level of disappointment), two of which should have been avoided by the front office (Redman, Rhodes). Having those two guys on the team wasn't negative in itself. Paying them what the A's were paying them was the problem. Somehow, they've managed to turn it into a good thing for the next two years, getting Jason Kendall, but they way they've pushed the punishment for the mistakes back to 2007 reminds me too much of the Forty Niners of the mid- to late-nineties for comfort.

I'm sure I'll be able to have plenty of fun with these numbers over the next year.

UPDATE: Jesus Christmas. BP just published these numbers on the 19th. I wonder why they didn't Google. Maybe they're subscriber-only. Oh well. I'm leaving this here, though, especially since they don't have their numbers run together as a whole league or in the various sortings I have.

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