A worse loss to the Mantae

By Jason Wojciechowski on April 10, 2005 at 5:39 AM

So, uh, pretty much Barry Zito still sucks. Jesus, this is going to be a longer year than I thought it would be. Eleven runs allowed? To the Devil Rays!? And then the devestating axis of Hideo Nomo, Lance Carter, and Seth McClung (that's sarcasm, folks) shut the A's "offense" down to boot. Good lord. This combined with the 4-0 loss in the first game of the season makes for the most depressing first week in recent memory.

I'm searching for some kind of positive here. Keiichi Yabu had a decent outing in his debut, though he didn't do well with the runners he inherited from Barry Zito. He did, however, have an impressive run of three innings after that, including one in which he struck out the side. Keith Ginter also tied for the team lead with his second homer of the year, though it was meaningless except for his stats.


Since that's the only positive news for the day, let's get to the ARC:

MVOP: Mark Kotsay, 1.388, for homering and walking in his only two trips to the plate before being removed in the sixth with the A's down by ten.

LVOP: Erubiel Durazo, -1.1729, who's in a funk, winning this award two days in a row. He went 0-4 with two men left on base. Scott Hatteberg had the same performance, but Durazo kept making outs in front of him, lowering the cost of his outs.

MVP: Huston Street, 0.5379, for a scoreless eighth inning.

LVP: Barry Zito, -5.3288, for (duh) giving up an uncountable infinity of runs.

Updated Standings


  1. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes, Mark Ellis, Mark Kotsay -- 1


  1. Erubiel Durazo -- 3
  2. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty -- 1


  1. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren, Justin Duchscherer, Huston Street -- 1


  1. Barry Zito -- 2
  2. Ricardo Rincon -- 1


Using Larry Mahnken's DIPS Worksheet, I've calculated the projected (by PECOTA) DIPS ERA for each of the A's seven relievers plus a few others who could see time for Oakland this year.

Octavio Dotel4.05
Chad Bradford4.13
Huston Street4.26
Ricardo Rincon4.40
Kiko Calero4.49
Juan Cruz4.50
Jairo Garcia4.63
Justin Duchscherer4.67
Seth Etherton4.71
Tim Harikkala4.76
Keiichi Yabu4.84

And by VORP/IP, also projected by PECOTA:

Octavio Dotel0.343
Kiko Calero0.255
Huston Street0.232
Chad Bradford0.232
Juan Cruz0.192
Justin Duchscherer0.184
Ricardo Rincon0.169
Tim Harikkala0.165
Jairo Garcia0.162
Keiichi Yabu0.139
Seth Etherton0.126

The lists, as you might expect, are pretty close. Thus we see a pecking order that we'd hope to also see in the run differential of the games that these pitchers are entering. Thus far, that pecking order looks like this:

PitcherAvg. Run Diff.

Best candidate to see his ARD go down very quickly? Dotel. Best candidate to have a Duchscherer-type year and see his ARD go down slowly as Ken Macha and Curt Young gain more confidence in his ability? Huston Street, as predicted by PECOTA.