Projections

By Jason Wojciechowski on March 21, 2006 at 6:10 PM

SG over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has run some simulations using Diamond Mind Baseball and three different projection systems (PECOTA, Diamond Mind, and ZiPS). A's fans will be happy to know that Oakland is really the class of baseball, with only St. Louis close behind.

Under Diamond Mind, the A's project to 95-67, best in baseball, with the Cardinals second at 94-68. Making the playoffs 91% of the time, they were more likely to be in the postseason than any other team. St. Louis was second at 86%. The next-best teams in the AL West were Texas and Seattle, with .500 winning percentages. That's right, the Angels are projected to last place, under .500.

PECOTA has the A's at 93-69, tied with St. Louis and the Dodgers, and a game ahead of the Yankees. Oakland finishes nine games ahead of Anaheim and Seattle. Their playoff percentage drops to 80%, though, a stat the Dodgers lead with 87% of their seasons resulting in playoff berths. That's a function of weaker competition in the NL West, certainly.

Finally, ZiPS puts the A's nine games up on the Angels, at 96-66. The only other team that matched that record was, again, St. Louis, and, again, no team made the playoffs more often (92%).

It's nice to see the objective projections have vastly more faith in this team than I do. Not that I don't think they're good, but I'm a pessimist by nature, so I'm convinced that Esteban Loaiza is going to blow, all the sophomore stars are going to hit the dreaded slump, and Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby will again fail to stay healthy.

Technorati: Oakland A's, Projections, ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind.

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