Beaneball

Things are getting crazy in Oakland! An umpire actually ruled that a batter didn't make an attempt to get out of the way of a pitched ball and did not allow that batter to go to first base. I complain constantly about this rule not being enforced at any level of the game. One time, when I was pitching in a Little League All Star game in Santa Cruz, the rule was actually enforced: I hit a guy with a knuckleball, but the umpire ruled that the batter had made no attempt to move and refused him the base. I attribute his call to my loud complaining (I worked the umps when I was 14, man!) after an earlier hit batter didn't move either. He gave that one the base, but got the call right the next time. There's not much incentive for a batter to try to move out of the way of an errant knuckleball unless the umpire is going to call the rule as it should be, and I'll always remember him for that. In this case, it was Joe Crede leaning into a Justin Duchscherer pitch. Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox manager, got tossed for arguing and Joe Crede managed to last the at-bat, but got tossed for arguing after he popped up. What made Crede's ejection worse for the White Sox is that Juan Uribe, Tadahito Iguchi, and Pablo Ozuna could not play, leaving the team with no shortstops. Guillen started Crede at short instead of his usual third, and put Chris Widger, a backup catcher, at third, a position he'd seen nary an inning of in his long and winding major league career. When Crede was ejected, the Sox were forced to go with Jermaine Dye at short! Dye's major league career to date included 9 games in center field, 27 in left, and 966 in right. Never before had he ventured into the infield dirt, not even for an inning of first base or something, and here he found himself playing the most important infield position. What I find a little weird is that they didn't move Willie Harris over from second to short at this point. Sure, Harris has never played short in the majors, either, but at least he's spent half of his career at second base, which is closer to the six than spending 95% of your career in right field. Of course, they would have then been left with the problem of filling second base, but I'd rather put Dye (or Timo Perez, or whatever other random fill-in you choose) at second than short late in a tied ballgame. Let's not forget that, by the way! Like last year's epic Red Sox-Yankees tilt when Gary Sheffield wound up playing third base, this game wasn't over. The two starting pitchers, Freddy Garcia and Kirk Saarloos, had dueled, each in their own way: Garcia by being traditionally effective, giving up just six baserunners in seven innings, for one run; Saarloos by relying on his defense, getting 13 ground ball outs, including three double plays (and benefitting from one more DP to erase some runners he left on base for Huston Street). The game came down to defense in the end, just like yesterday. You might expect a base hit that Jermaine Dye couldn't get to or something, but instead, Erubiel Durazo reached on a fly ball that Aaron Rowand, generally an average defensive center fielder, lost in the sun. After a sacrifice and an intentional walk, Marco Scutaro came through with the game winning hit into left field off Dustin Hermanson. Is it any wonder A's fans love Scutaro? He's a decent-to-good defensive infielder with a .389 on-base percentage! Granted, he won't keep that OBP up, but he's a spare part anyway, and when you get that kind of production from your fill-ins, you're supposed to end up with a decent offense. Fifth worst in MLB in runs scored, you say? I guess it can't work all the time. What the hell's the deal with the sacrificing, by the way? Ken Macha made Mark Ellis sacrifice Erubiel Durazo from first to second with no outs twice! Granted, the second time, it "worked" in that Durazo scored the winning run, and also granted, Ellis isn't hitting that well (.317/.321 OBP/SLG), but, recalling James Click's findings from last May (sub. req.), he doesn't hit enough like a pitcher to justify bunting the runner from first to second, especially in the seventh inning, when maximization of run scoring should still be the goal, rather than maximization of the probability of pushing one baserunner across.

Standings

With a tightly-bunched, early-season, four-team division, you get funny results like the A's jumping from a tie for last into a tie for second in one day. As of right now, the teams are lined up in the order I predicted for them. On the other hand, I didn't figure the A's would be in second place but be outscored by eleven runs (out of just 173 total scored, remember).

ARC

What's ARC? MVP for 4/27: Huston Street, who worked out of a sixth inning jam and pitched a scoreless seventh. LVP for 4/27: Nobody in the negative. Ricardo Rincon was closest. MVOP for 4/27: Erubiel Durazo, though that's helped out by his "single" in the ninth. I won't quibble about whether certain kinds of errors should be errors or not, but the difference between his performance and Marco Scutaro's is small enough that a catch by Rowand makes a difference there. On the other hand, if Rowand catches that ball, Scutaro doesn't have the chance to hit the RBI single to win the game. Maybe he gets a hit, but it likely doesn't earn him enough ARC to win the MVOP title for the day. We could do this all day. LVOP for 4/27: Scott Hatteberg, who hit into a huge inning-ending, bases-loaded double play in the eighth amidst going 0-4. Don't forget to keep checking out the ARC page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section.

Relievers

Macha's usage rating remains the same, though Street pitching in a tie game yesterday moved him up the usage rankings a spot. Rincon is still pitching in close games. That's all you need to know. Don't forget to keep checking out the reliever page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section.

Adjusted Standings

The A's record is above their performance in all respects and are thus looking at something like a 76-win season. That said, you have to doubt they'll actually play like this the rest of the year. When they'll start playing like their capable, I have no idea. Don't forget to keep checking out the Adjusted Standings page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 12:49 | |

As I alluded to in an e-mail response to this comment, I figured I'd write again when the A's won again. Thankfully, Oakland lucked their way into a victory last night, so the backlog doesn't end up being as severe as it could be. Working chronologically, the A's wasted a brilliant start by Joe Blanton and, apparently, by the defense, on Sunday, losing to the Angels 1-0. Blanton struck out just two and had a 1-1 ground-to-fly ratio, but gave up just six hits in the game, almost keeping the Angels off the scoreboard. Unfortunately, one of those six hits was a homer by Steve Finley leading off the seventh, which was all Kelvim Escobar (who had a more traditional no-run game, striking out seven Athletics), Scot Shields, and Frankie Rodriguez needed. The A's lineup for this game, including pinch-hitter Adam Melhuse, had four players batting above .200 out of ten: Mark Kotsay (who walked once), Scott Hatteberg (who had two hits and a walk), Marco Scutaro (who walked once), and Jason Kendall (who's barely above .200 anyway). Sure, batting average, schmatting average, but still, it's an indication of just how poorly this team is hitting right now. Things got worse the next night, as the A's were shut out by Jon Garland while Barry Zito and Juan Cruz did their usual craptastical work on the mound. Zito was reasonable, though, giving up nothing through six before allowing four runs in the seventh (the usual "big inning" problem for Barry), and Juan Cruz's two runs were unearned, but Eric Chavez's error came three batters before the runs scored, so Cruz had his chances to get out of the inning unscathed. Oh when oh when is Kiko Calero coming back? Finally, though, the A's broke the scoreless streak and the losing streak (don't those things usually match up?) last night, breaking out for nine runs. It's a good thing they went for the big number, because Rich Harden wasn't his usual self, getting knocked around for six runs in five and a third innings. That the A's hit into three double plays is a bad thing. That they scored nine runs despite it is a good thing, even if it did take three Chicago errors to help them out (though those errors must not have come at such crucial places, since eight of the nine Oakland runs were charged as earned to Chicago pitchers).

The Division

Is it a little early to talk about the standings? Absolutely. Do I want to do it anyway? Absolutely. Oakland remains in last place, albeit tied for fourth with Texas (who lost to Seattle last night) and just a game and a half back of Anaheim (who lost to Alex Rodrig ... I mean the Yankees, who featured Alex Rodriguez's 10 RBI and three homers).

Upcoming

Today is an afternoon game against the White Sox, with Kirk Saarloos going against Freddy Garcia. Given Oakland's hitting troubles and Saarloos's general inability to throw a quality start, I'd bet on the one-game winning streak ending today. Oakland is off tomorrow before Seattle comes into town for a three-game weekend set, led off by Aaron Sele vs. Dan Haren, that scintillating All-Star pitching matchup that we've all been waiting to see. If the A's can't win that game, if the hitters can't hit Sele, it may be "tirade time" in the Bay. Or at least here in Gramercy Park.

ARC

Don't forget to keep checking out the ARC page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section. You've all been waiting for it, I know. By the way, here's a link to the post where I explain what all this junk is. I'll include this link at the beginning of every post about ARC from now on. MVOP for 4/24: Scott Hatteberg, on a day when almost no one made a positive contribution, nearly scored the A's only run after a double in the seventh. Unfortunately, he was thrown out at the plate on a ground ball to third. LVOP for 4/24: Erubiel Durazo, again, who had the misfortune of having a bad day at the plate behind a guy who was having a good day, Hatteberg. Durazo even grounded into a double play, just to make sure he'd get the award. MVP for 4/24: Joe Blanton, of course, who was the only pitcher, but did actually pitch well enough to earn the award with his one-run, eight-inning performance. MVP for 4/25: Huston Street, who got out of Barry Zito's seventh-inning jam and then pitched a scoreless eighth. LVP for 4/25: Juan Cruz, for his bad ninth inning. At some point, he'll get his head on straight. Right? MVOP for 4/25: None. Nobody made a positive contribution against Jon Garland. Ugh. LVOP for 4/25: Since I can't go with "everyone," the winner is Mark Ellis, who grounded into a double play after an Erubiel Durazo single. MVP for 4/26: Justin Duchscherer and Octavio Dotel, for their scoreless eighth and ninth, respectively. LVP for 4/26: Ricardo Rincon, who faced just one batter and gave up an RBI single to that man. MVOP for 4/26: Eric Chavez, who had a couple of big hits and grabbed himself three RBI, finally hitting like the third-place batter he's supposed to be. LVOP for 4/26: Marco Scutaro, who went 0-4 with a double play.

Standings

Don't forget to keep checking out the ARC Standings page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section. Huston Street jumps into the lead for MVP while Erubiel Durazo maintains his distance from the field in the LVOP race. Unfortunately for Street, he's also tied for the most LVP awards, too, and fortunately for Durazo, he's tied for most MVOP's. Fickle players all.

Relievers

Don't forget to keep checking out the reliever page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section. Macha's usage score has fallen a little, thank goodness, from 20 to 18, mostly because Octavio Dotel hasn't gotten into a blowout in a while. That said, Ricardo Rincon is probably the sixth best reliever on the team, and that's only because Juan Cruz is struggling. Rincon, though, is the guy the A's have used in the closest games, with a score differential average under two. He's appeared in three tie games and only one blowout. Billy Beane may be best off trying to trade Rincon and getting Macha a pen with no lefties so that the manager will be forced to actually figure out who can get lefties out instead of automatically resorting to his one portsider anytime a fearsome lefty slugger pops into the box. Rincon is probably a decent seventh guy to have around the bullpen, if you absolutely insist on carrying that many, but Macha can't be trusted with him.

Adjusted Standings

Don't forget to keep checking out the Adjusted Standings page, linked in the right sidebar in the Stats section. If the A's continue playing their current style of baseball, they'll finish the year with a 72-90 record. That's ugly.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 10:45 | |

The battle over clutch rages on. David Pinto at Baseball Musings has this post using Retrosheet's play-by-play database and concludes the usual thing: there ain't no such thing as clutch hitters. Mike Emeigh brings up some interesting points in the comments, though, including some indication that maybe the more chances you get at hitting with runners in scoring position, the better you get at it (which certainly makes intuitive sense, but many things in baseball that make intuitive sense aren't necessarily true). By the way, I haven't commented on it yet, but that Bill James article that got this whole mess restarted is really good. I'd become turned off by him in the last few years, as I thought he was starting to become anti-establishment simply for the sake of it. I may not be wrong about that, but he's not wrong in his article, either.

Posted by jason in Baseball at 11:48 | |

Today's a three-in-one, since I haven't posted since Thursday. On Thursday, Rich Harden went off and banged out seven innings worth of zeroes against the Mariners, powered by eight strikeouts. The bullpen was then good enough to overcome an error and make the three runs Oakland had scored early in the game stand up. The only black mark on Harden's day is that he had to be removed after the seventh, having thrown 119 pitches already. That's 17 pitches per inning and one would like to see him be a bit more efficient so that he can complete a game like he had on Thursday. The model should be Mark Mulder's 10-inning shutout of the Astros on Saturday when he used just 101 pitches. With that count, he probably could have gone one more inning had he needed to. That efficiency is why Mulder is one of my favorite pitchers (and was my favorite of the Big Three): there's something almost perverse about only throwing ten pitches per inning, and he seems to do just that with regularity. On Friday, Kirk Saarloos threw another mediocre game, giving up three runs in five and a third innings, but the A's bullpen, showing its muscle, held the Angels off long enough for Oakland to score twice in the top of the ninth against Francisco Rodriguez (no mean feat), giving the A's the lead that Octavio Dotel held on to in the bottom half. The A's banged out ten hits, earned five walks, had one batter hit with a pitch, and got helped out by two Anaheim errors, but still managed to push across just four runs. That's ugly, but a win is a win. And it's a good thing Oakland came back to win on Friday, because Saturday just turned ugly. Dan Haren had his first bad game as an Athletic, giving up eight runs in just four and two thirds innings. The most worrisome trouble the A's had in this game were the five stolen bases Anaheim had off of the Haren/Jason Kendall combination. In 2004, Haren allowed three stolen bases and had no one caught stealing, but there's not enough of a sample to make any statements about that. I've mentioned significant worries about Kendall's ability to stop the running game before, but I honestly didn't think it would get this bad. Sure, running is down everywhere, but if it gets around that people can run on Kendall, they will, and those few runs those teams pick up over the course of the season could spell the difference between first and second place between Oakland and Anaheim.

Contracts

Bobby Crosby signed up to be with the A's up to his free-agent year, inking a five-year, ~$12 million contract. I don't think there's much debate about whether this is good or bad so much as confirmation from the team that, despite playing just one year (and not playing, offensively at least, particularly well in the big picture), the A's are ready to commit to Crosby at short. The A's, assuming no trades, will actually end up having had a longer Crosby-Chavez left side of the infield than the beloved Tejada-Chavez tandem.

ARC

MVOP for 4/21: Mark Kotsay, riding the strength of his two-run homer in the third inning. MVOP for 4/22: Scott Hatteberg for an all-around good day capped by the game-winning two-run single in the ninth against one of the best relief pitchers around. MVOP for 4/23: Bobby Kielty, who hit a big three-run homer (his first bomb of the year) that the A's pitching staff couldn't make stand up. LVOP for 4/21: Nick Swisher, who left Mark Ellis on third base and Eric Chavez on second in separate situations. LVOP for 4/22: Mark Ellis, predictably, since he went 0-5 with six men left on base. LVOP for 4/23: Mark Kotsay, whose 0-5 at the top of the order really sunk the A's offense outside of the fifth inning. MVP for 4/21: Rich Harden, of course, for seven innings of shutout ball. MVP for 4/22: Keiichi Yabu, for two innings of scoreless relief late in the game. MVP for 4/23: Huston Street and Juan Cruz for a scoreless inning each. LVP for 4/21: None. LVP for 4/22: Kirk Saarloos, whose start actually looks better in play-by-play than it does in the box score, but whose sixth inning, where he allowed a runner in and left a man on for Rincon to strand, killed his numbers. LVP for 4/23: Dan Haren. Duh. (Though he wasn't helped at all by all those stolen bases, which I charge solely to the defense, mostly because I don't know a good way to split the cost and I want to keep things simple.)

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 12:37 | |

The A's could learn a lesson from the offense the Mariners brought last night: big innings win games. Barry Zito loaded the bases in the first inning, then gave up a big hit, a homer to Bret Boone. Huston Street loaded the bases in the seventh, then gave up a big hit, a double to Greg Dobbs. The seven runs scored on those two plays were enough to beat the A's, despite Oakland scoring in four different innings. Zito's night probably could have been a lot worse than it was. He didn't give up any runs after the grand slam, but he allowed eight hits and three walks overall and took 116 pitches to get through his six innings, a complete lack of efficiency. The "one really bad inning" thing seemed to be a hallmark of Zito's inconsistent 2004, and based on what he's done so far this year, it doesn't look like he's gotten over those problems. The way the other starters on the staff are pitching, Zito could be the team's fourth starter, but Oakland would obviously be much better off if he could get himself back on track and pitch like a solid number two, at least. Speaking of A's players having a hard time, Erubiel Durazo hit his first homer of the year, a solo shot that cut the Oakland deficit in half in the ninth inning against Eddie Guardado. Unfortunately, follow-up work from the guys behind him was not forthcoming, so the bomb was wasted.

ARC

MVOP for 4/20: Marco Scutaro, edging out Mark Kotsay with a 3-4 day and a pair of RBI. LVOP for 4/20: Eric Chavez, who managed a lone single and left a bushel of men on base. MVP for 4/20: Justin Duchscherer, for a scoreless eighth. LVP for 4/20: Huston Street, for giving up three runs in the eighth, giving the game to the Mariners, with a strong assist from Eric Byrnes.

Standings

Huston Street moves into a category by himself, taking over sole possession of first place in the "Most LVP's" category.

Relievers

Despite a bunch of movement around the relievers charts, Macha's usage score remains at 20 (out of a worst-possible 24). He's clearly recognized Huston Street as a strong reliever and he'd done the same with Kiko Calero before he got hurt. As usual, the defined closer role hurts the usage of Octavio Dotel.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 18:35 | |

An "I told you so" for calling Monday's spanking of Chan Ho Park isn't really worth it: who didn't know he'd get smacked around a little? The offense finally came through in a place where they should succeed, and a good thing too, because Juan Cruz came on and almost tried to derail the whole thing, giving up three runs in just two thirds of an inning (though one of those was allowed in by Octavio Dotel, who was forced to come on and get a two-batter save when the A's should have been able to let him rest a day). Dan Haren was good in terms of run prevention (two runs in six innings), not so good in terms of control (five walks). He stayed out of trouble, though, due in no small part to seven strikeouts. He also showed good ground-ball tendencies, getting seven of those type of outs, compared to just four air outs. On Sunday, though, all the offensive gains came tumbling apart, as the unlikely Pedro Astacio came on and blew Oakland up, allowing no runs in eight innings and permitting the game to be completed in 2:17. Of course, that kind of game time can't be one-sided, and Joe Blanton did his part for Oakland, allowing two runs in six and two thirds innings. On the DIPS tip, though, it should be noted that he struck out just one Ranger, and on a related-to-DIPS tip, he gave up 11 air outs, compared to eight on the ground. He kept the ball in the yard, though, no mean feat against Texas, particularly at The Ballpark. Worrisome trend of the day: Juan Cruz's inability in his first four games as an Athletic to get anyone out. Ken Macha tried to put him in a spot where he could work out some kinks on Monday, with a six-run lead, but he quickly blew that lead and forced a guy the team could count on into the game. The next day, Keiichi Yabu saw action with the score 2-0 in the bottom of the eighth, the kind of spot you'd like to see Cruz earn his way into. Other worrisome trend of the day: Three errors so far for Eric Chavez. Small sample, I know, but forgive me, I'm a worrier.

ARC

MVOP for 4/18: Erubiel Durazo trying to get back on the horse with two doubles and a walk. MVOP for 4/19: Marco Scutaro, who was the only player in positive figures for Oakland today, as he popped his third double of the year and also added a single. For nought, of course, but who's fault is that? LVOP for 4/18: Eric Byrnes, who left an astounding eight men on base in going 0-5. LVOP for 4/19: Geez, who wasn't? Well, aside from Scutaro. But the worst offender was Mark Kotsay, who's having a good start to the season, but took on ofer behind Scutaro's nice work with the stick. Having a bad day right behind a guy having a good day is a sure way to garner yourself an LVOP award. MVP for 4/18: Dan Haren, for a pretty good six innings, components aside. MVP for 4/19: Joe Blanton, who pitched a little longer and "benefitted" from one of his runs coming in on a bases-loaded error on Eric Chavez, which counts as an out in his ARC. LVP for 4/18: Juan Cruz, for a terrible piece of work, continuing to stink it up. LVP for 4/19: Keiichi Yabu, for allowing an uneventful run in his inning of work.

Standings

I've decided to save a little space and not post the standings every day, since they're updated in the stats section daily anyway. I will note that Erubiel Durazo has moved into the lead for most MVOP's, which is odd consider that he's also got the most LVOP's to his name. It might not be a coincidence that a great day from Durazo spelled eight runs for Oakland on Monday, while bad days surrounding it have yielded totals like one and zero.

Relievers

Macha's usage score has increased to 20, fast approaching the maximum of 24. It's a bit unfair, because 13 games into the season, he's still figuring out who's good and who's less good, particularly with a 'pen full of newcomers, one entirely new to these shores and one very new to the pro game, much less the major leagues (and thus not necessarily as successfully projected as the other, more established, pitchers). Still, I wonder why Yabu was used today in a 2-0 game rather than, say, Kiko Calero. It's one of those classic cases where a manager uses different guys (usually better) to protect leads than he does to maintain small deficits. It's, in the end, a relatively minor thing, but remember that the A's lost the division last year by one game. Is it inconceivable that optimal (i.e. non-traditional) bullpen usage might have made up that game and put the A's in the playoffs? I don't think so.

Next up

The A's go to Seattle for a quick two-game set, sending Barry Zito against Joel Pineiro tomorrow. That game could be on ESPN2, which is unfortunate in the sense that Barry Zito's not a guy I want to watch these days. Will he get pounded, or will he just lose the hard-luck way as Pineiro pitches a gem against Oakland? On Thursday, Rich Harden goes against Ryan Franklin in the game I'm more hopeful of winning. Seattle really did improve their lineup this off-season and I always have this worry that a young guy like Jeremy Reed is going to choose the A's to be the team that he announces himself with. As in, "Hi, I'm Jeremy. Watch me hit two homers, two doubles, and steal a key base over the next two games." That said, Harden's good. I think if Reed wants to do any announcing, he's best off aiming to do so against Zito on Wednesday.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 20:07 | |

Remember what I said this off-season about the A's having an inconsistent offense? Remember how the A's scored two runs combined in the first two games of the Anaheim series? The seven runs they scored last night against John Lackey (in just five and two thirds innings) all make sense now. How'd it happen? Seven singles, three doubles, and a big home run by Marco Scutaro. Sure, there were no walks, no hit-by-pitches, and no Anaheim errors, but also no double plays and just five Oakland strikeouts. All this conspired to overcome another lame start by Kirk Saarloos (five runs in five innings) and a lamer follow-up by Ricardo Rincon (one run in one third of an inning, two inherited runners allowed to score - we can guess who the LVP will be today). Thankfully, Huston Street and Octavio Dotel were on hand to throw three and two thirds scoreless innings at the end to keep the A's in front for good. The A's should get a chance to put together back-to-back scoring outbursts tonight as they go to Texas (hitters shout, "Yay!") to face Chan Ho Park (hitters do obscene favors for Ken Macha to try to get in the lineup). Danny Haren makes the start for the A's. He never appeared in an interleague game last year, so this is his first look at the bandbox known as The Ballpark. Let him be in your prayers.

ARC

MVOP for 4/17: Jason Kendall, 1.9138, for being right in the middle of the A's first two run-scoring innings, including hitting a two-run double in the second. LVOP for 4/17: Eric Chavez, -0.6773, on a day when his best play was grounding out to first in the first inning, moving runners from first and second to second and third. MVP for 4/17: Octavio Dotel, 1.1774, for a scoreless ninth and for stranding Vladimir Guerrero on second in the eighth. LVP for 4/17: Kirk Saarloos, -1.6266, putting to lie my prediction for Ricardo Rincon. Saarloos had a tough first two innings, an excellent middle three (he faced the minimum), and then allowed to baserunners to start the sixth. YTD MVOP: Mark Kotsay YTD LVOP: Erubiel Durazo YTD MVP: Rich Harden YTD LVP: Barry Zito

Standings

Most Valuable Offensive Player:

1. Mark Ellis, Nick Swisher, Erubiel Durazo, Jason Kendall -- 2
2. Marco Scutaro, Eric Byrnes, Mark Kotsay, Scott Hatteberg -- 1

Least Valuable Offensive Player:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 4
2. Jason Kendall -- 2
3. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Scott Hatteberg, Eric Chavez -- 1

Most Valuable Pitcher:

1. Huston Street, Dan Haren, Rich Harden -- 2
2. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Barry Zito, Octavio Dotel -- 1

Least Valuable Pitcher:

1. Barry Zito, Huston Street, Kirk Saarloos -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon -- 1

Relievers

Macha's usage score (remember, higher is worse) has increased to 18, mainly because Ricardo Rincon is awful but Macha hasn't realized it yet because he's stuck in the "only lefty" mindset that allows him to reflexively stick him in the game in a crucial situation against Garrett Anderson (and get smoked). Hopefully, he'll learn.

Adjusted Standings

Baseball Prospectus has a neat feature that adjusts a team's standings to what it "should" be given a team's run scoring (level one), expected run scoring by EqR (level two), and then adjusts for difficulty of schedule (level three). Implicit in all of this is that deviation from the expected standings is random and can be expected to even out. What I've decided to add, for the A's, is what Oakland's record would be at the end of the year if they kept their current record, but played at their "expected" level for the rest of the season. For example, the A's are currently 6 - 6. Their level two record, though, is 5 - 7. That's a .417 winning percentage, and if they played their remaining 150 games at that level, they'd win 62.5 of them, resulting in a 67.5 - 94.5 record. So today's report (and I hope I'm not infringing any copyright here: if I am and you work for BP, certainly contact me about this and I'll get rid of it [though it is neat, I think, so I'd love to see it up on the BP site if I can't have it here]): Current record: 6 - 6 Projected record: 81 - 81 First order: 5.3 - 6.7 Projected: 72.25 - 89.75 Second order: 5 - 7 Projected: 67.5 - 94.5 Third order: 5.7 - 6.3 Projected: 77.25 - 84.75 I've added a link in the sidebar to this report as well.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 19:59 | |

I want to kick off a new weekly feature here at Beaneball, one that I used to do back in the days of posting on what's since become scout.com: A's in the league leaders. It's nothing special, but it's fun, and it condenses something I think a lot of people do (trolling leaderboards for their favorite players) into one page. I like to do silly categories (batting average, at bats, runs) as well as serious ones (EqA, RC/27, OPS) because remember, this isn't supposed to actually mean anything. I'll post it weekly here in the blog section, but I'll also update a separate page for the stats section so you can always find it in one place. Let's kick it off. Rankings are AL-only.

Hitters - Good

• Hits - Mark Kotsay, T3, 15
• Home runs - Nick Swisher, T3, 3
• Walks - Eric Chavez, T8, 6
• Batting average - Mark Kotsay, 5, .366
• On-base percentage - Mark Kotsay, 8, .422
• Pitches per plate appearance - Eric Chavez, 4, 4.31
• Pitches per plate appearance - Jason Kendall, 6, 4.29
• Intentional walks - Mark Kotsay, 3, 2
• Intentional walks - Eric Chavez, T4, 1
• Runs Created per 27 outs - Mark Kotsay, 8, 8.75
• Isolated Power - Nick Swisher, 9, .286
• Walks per plate appearance - Eric Chavez, 10, .143
• Walks per strikeout - Mark Kotsay, 1, 4.00

Hitters - Bad

• Low batting average - Erubiel Durazo, 3, .171
• Low OBP - Erubiel Durazo, 3, .256
• Low OBP - Jason Kendall, 8, .267
• Low SLG - Eric Chavez, 9, .316
• Low OPS - Erubiel Durazo, 2, .428
• Low OPS - Jason Kendall, 7, .505
• Low RC/27 - Jason Kendall, 1, 2.15
• Low Isolated Power - Erubiel Durazo, T1, .000
• Low Isolated Power - Jason Kendall, T6, .024
• Low Secondary Average - Jason Kendall, 4, .095
• Low Secondary Average - Erubiel Durazo, 9, .114
• Low BB/K - Scott Hatteberg, T4, 0.20
• Caught stealing - Charles Thomas, T5, 1
• Strikeouts - Nick Swisher, T4, 11
• Ground into double plays - Bobby Kielty, T6, 2

Hitters - Descriptive

• Lowest Ground/Fly ratio - Nick Swisher, 3, 0.38
• Sacrifices - Eric Byrnes, Mark Ellis, Marco Scutaro, T4, 1

Pitchers - Good

• Starts - Barry Zito, T1, 3
• Innings - Barry Zito, 10, 17.3
• Wins - Kiko Calero, T2, 2
• ERA - Joe Blanton, 9, 2.45
• Hit batters - Barry Zito, Kirk Saarloos, T1, 3
• Quality starts - Dan Haren, T1, 2
• High Average game score - Rich Harden, 2, 68.5
• Low Ground/Fly ratio - Rich Harden, 2, 0.69
• Low Ground/Fly ratio - Joe Blanton, 7, 0.88
• Low Ground/Fly ratio - Barry Zito, 8, 0.88
• WHIP - Joe Blanton, 7, 0.91
• Low Component ERA - Rich Harden, 6, 1.60
• Low DIPS ERA - Rich Harden, 3, 2.22
• High K/9 - Rich Harden, 3, 8.78
• Low OBP allowed - Joe Blanton, 7, .238
• Low SLG allowed - Rich Harden, 5, .267
• Low OPS allowed - Rich Harden, 9, .532

Pitchers - Bad

• High OBP allowed - Barry Zito, 8, .342
• Low K/9 - Joe Blanton, 9, 3.27
• High DIPS ERA - Barry Zito, 4, 5.99
• High DIPS ERA - Joe Blanton, 5, 5.88
• High DIPS ERA - Dan Haren, 6, 5.44
• High Component ERA - Barry Zito, 10, 5.03
• Low run support - Barry Zito, 2, 1.04
• Low run support - Dan Haren, 9, 2.08
• Low Average game score - Barry Zito, 3, 40.0
• Most pitches per plate appearances - Joe Blanton, 9, 3.88
• Most pitches per inning - Barry Zito, 8, 16.9
• Pitches - Barry Zito, 6, 293
• Runs - Barry Zito, T1, 17
• Earned Runs - Barry Zito, 1, 14
• High ERA - Barry Zito, 2, 7.27
• Walks - Barry Zito, T3, 7
• Walks - Dan Haren, T9, 6
• Losses - Barry Zito, T1, 3
• Blown saves - Huston Street, T4, 1

Pitchers - Descriptive

• Tough losses - Barry Zito, 2, 3
• Low BABIP - Joe Blanton, T1, .147
• Low BABIP - Dan Haren, 5, .167
• Batters faced - Barry Zito, T8, 80
• Sacrifices allowed - Justin Duchscherer, T1, 2
• Sac flies allowed - Barry Zito, Juan Cruz, T1, 2

Posted by jason in Oakland A's at 12:44 | |

I have a cold. The A's are hitting like they have one big collective cold. Luckily enough, Billy Beane built the team around pitching and defense, so Rich Harden and Kiko Calero saved the offense's bacon today, throwing ten shutout innings to give Oakland a 1-0 win over the Angels. You could also say that Scot Shields saved the A's bacon by giving them the winning run with his error in the tenth, especially since that error came on a sacrifice bunt. Ken Macha's really going for the gold with the sacrificing this year. Given that Billy Beane is apparently watching the games again, you have to wonder what's going on. Do they really think the A's hitters are that bad? Anyway, the A's have faced some pretty good pitching the last two days: Bartolo Colon used to be an ace, and even last year, in his worst full season in the bigs, he wasn't atrocious: his 92 ERA+ made him like a decent fifth starter. The Angels's starter today was Jarrod Washburn, who put up ERA+'s of 133, 126, and 138 from ages 25 to 27, then 96 and 99 in his last two years. Before getting smacked around a little bit in Arlington in his last start, he shut the Rangers out for six innings in his first start. None of this excuses such pitiful showings as Bobby Kielty's 0-13 start to the year and Erubiel Durazo's six singles in 32 at-bats. I think Kielty's done, personally. We're working on his third straight year of not hitting, after all. Durazo should bounce back, though, and guys like Jason Kendall and Erics Chavez and Byrnes are well within normal deviation of what we expect from them over a full season. I'm not sure any of that makes the Oakland pitchers feel any better about this whole thing, though. Still, all whining aside, the A's won, so for the moment, they've got a better record than the Yankees. What more can you ask for?

ARC

MVOP for 4/16: Erubiel Durazo, 0.388, for his pinch-hit single in the ninth inning. He was the only player with a positive ARC. LVOP for 4/16: Scott Hatteberg, -1.4881, mostly because of a double play with no one out late in the game, but he was 0-4 overall anyway. MVP for 4/16: Rich Harden, 3.8671, for eight shutout innings. Let's note, also, that Harden got through those innings with 105 pitches, which is something less than Halladay-like, but still economical enough for Oakland's purposes. Despite that economy, he managed eight strikeouts against a team that, while the makeup of the offense has changed a little, probably won't strike out all that much this year. ESPN.com's front baseball page right now has a picture of Harden with this caption: "It's not a question of if, but when Rich Harden will win a Cy Young." How about this year? Ok, ok, so I'm getting all excited about two measly starts, but maybe that excusable in Harden's case. LVP for 4/16: None.

Standings

Most Valuable Offensive Player:

1. Mark Ellis, Nick Swisher, Erubiel Durazo -- 2
2. Marco Scutaro, Jason Kendall, Eric Byrnes, Mark Kotsay, Scott Hatteberg -- 1

Least Valuable Offensive Player:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 4
2. Jason Kendall -- 2
3. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Scott Hatteberg -- 1

Most Valuable Pitcher:

1. Huston Street, Dan Haren, Rich Harden -- 2
2. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Barry Zito -- 1

Least Valuable Pitcher:

1. Barry Zito, Huston Street -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon, Kirk Saarloos -- 1

Relievers

I've introduced a bunch of new stuff to the reliever report, including a number on a 0-24 (0 is good) scale that indicates how well, at least by this method, the bullpen is being used. Ken Macha scores a 15 right now.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 20:05 | |

The A's fell to 0-4 in series openers this year as Bartolo Colon shut them down, leading the Angels to a 6-1 win. Barry Zito, believe it or not, pitched well, giving up just two runs in eight innings, with six strikeouts and one walk (though he did perpetrate three HBP's, including Steve Finley twice). The Angels put the game away in the top of the ninth against the bullpen, scoring four times as Juan Cruz, Ricardo Rincon, and Huston Street struggled to put the Angels away, with no help from a Charles Thomas error in right field. Francisco Rodriguez shut the A's down in the bottom of the ninth anyway, so whether it was 6-1 or 2-1, the Angels probably win, but you never know - maybe the batters come to the plate with a different mindset and actually make something happen, maybe Rodriguez feels a little bit of pressure and misses with a few pitches, or maybe something crazy happens. Something crazy probably would have had to happen, because the A's managed just two baserunners all game, a single by Scott Hatteberg and a double by Mark Kotsay. Thank goodness those happened in the same inning, or Oakland would have been shut out again. This is as good a time as ever to note that I refuse to call the Angels by their chosen name, Los Angeles. The team has a contract to live up to, so I'm going to do my part to help them live up to that contract and refer to them as the Anaheim Angels.

ARC

MVOP for 4/15: Scott Hatteberg, 0.4857, for driving in the only run of the game. The only other player with a positive ARC in the game was Mark Kotsay, whose double allowed Hatteberg's hit to be meaningful. LVOP for 4/15: Jason Kendall, -0.8493. Nobody's ARC scores were very low because nobody came up with many run-scoring opportunities. Kendall, though, had Kotsay on second with no outs at one point, so his out in that at-bat garners him the lowest score for the day. MVP for 4/15: Barry Zito, 2.3032, for a strong eight-inning performance that, with a decent effort from the bullpen and offense, would have earned him his first win in recent memory. LVP for 4/15: Huston Street, -1.6641, who wasn't helped by the defense of Charles Thomas, but who also gave up a couple of hits with runners on, allowing Anaheim to pad their lead.

Standings

MVOP:

1. Mark Ellis, Nick Swisher -- 2
2. Marco Scutaro, Jason Kendall, Eric Byrnes, Mark Kotsay, Erubiel Durazo, Scott Hatteberg -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 4
2. Jason Kendall -- 2
3. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher -- 1

MVP:

1. Huston Street, Dan Haren -- 2
2. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Barry Zito -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito, Huston Street -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon, Kirk Saarloos -- 1

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 12:26 | |

The A's lost again to Toronto on Tuesday before coming back with another series-closing win on Wednesday. That makes Oakland 0-3 in series openers, 1-2 in middle games, and 3-0 in closers. This, of course, is the reverse of the reputation the team has acquired for its playoff struggles from 2000 to 2004, where they won early and lost late. Of course, these nine games are just as little indication of the team's overall ability as those playoff games were. Tuesday's game featured the A's taking an early lead on a two-run Nick Swisher double and Danny Haren pitching a decent game (four runs in seven innings), but Josh Towers shut Oakland down after Swisher's hit, leading to a 5-2 loss. Swisher, by the way, is struggling to make contact early, batting just .235 with 10 strikeouts in 35 plate appearances, and he's walked just once, but he's hitting for power: a double and three homers out of eight total hits give him an Isolated Slugging of almost .300. Obviously, he's not going to keep that up, but there are some positive signs in the early part of the season for Swisher. One of Swisher's homers came in the bottom of the sixth on Wednesday, tieing the score at one after Reed Johnson had popped a homer in the top half of the inning. Oakland later took the lead in that inning, only to have Huston Street relinquish it in the top of the seventh, but a rally in the eighth gave the A's a four-run lead, rendering the run Octavio Dotel gave up in the ninth meaningless and giving Kiko Calero his first win as an Athletic.

ARC

MVOP for 4/12: Nick Swisher, 1.1511, who was the only offensive player with a positive ARC for the day. That's ugly. MVOP for 4/13: Jason Kendall, 1.5756, who had his first extra-base hit as an Athletic and knocked in a couple of runs. LVOP for 4/12: Jason Kendall, -1.1253, for going 0-4 (with a couple of strikeouts) in the third spot in the order. LVOP for 4/13: Erubiel Durazo, -0.6721, with an 0-4 in the cleanup spot on a day when the three guys ahead of him got on base a combined six times. MVP for 4/12: Dan Haren, 0.6383, who learned that one little three-run homer can ruin an otherwise fine day. MVP for 4/13: Joe Blanton, 2.2274, who had a very nice 6-inning start, throwing just 77 pitches in the effort. Were he a veteran, even one of two or three years' experience, he probably would have pitched the seventh inning at least. No complaining when the A's win the game, though. LVP for 4/12: None. LVP for 4/13: Huston Street, -0.8982, who gave up a run and had the second out of his inning come on a caught-stealing (which I decided for the sake of simplicity in the system, not to credit to the pitcher).

Standings

MVOP:

1. Mark Ellis, Nick Swisher -- 2
2. Marco Scutaro, Jason Kendall, Eric Byrnes, Mark Kotsay, Erubiel Durazo -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 4
2. Mark Ellis, Jason Kendall, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher -- 1

MVP:

1. Huston Street, Dan Haren -- 2
2. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon, Kirk Saarloos, Huston Street -- 1

Relievers

The updated run-differential rankings are:

1. Rincon 2.33
2. Duchscherer 2.75
3. Calero 3.00
4. Cruz 3.00
5. Dotel 6.00
6. Street 6.25
7. Yabu 7.50

Pages

I'm going to update the sidebar a little later today to add a stats section so that these numbers that I post will be available in a plain, non-blog form for viewing at any time.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 08:40 | |

The A's got blown out again last night, which I expect to happen fairly often when Kirk Saarloos is on the mound. He's a decent fifth starter, but he's not a world beater, and while I'm not sure he's significantly worse than Mark Redman, I also acknowledge that I'm damning him with faint praise. On the other hand, he's not going to get blown out every time, and he certainly has the ability to provide a little gem like he threw against Baltimore his first time out. Saarloos didn't get much from his bullpen, either, not in the usual sense of inherited runners scoring, but in giving the A's offense a chance to come back and take him off the hook. The score was 6-0 when he left the game, which is pretty grim, but Juan Cruz quickly allowed four runs over the next two innings, make it 10-0 before the A's could even plate their first man. Cruz's performance was awful and not a little bit worrisome: four hits and two walks allowed with no strikeouts, and six fly-ball outs compared to just one ground-ball out. Cruz is a ground-ball pitcher for his career, and it's likely that he just had a bad game, but it's worth watching. On the other hand, Huston Street came on and blew the pants off the Jays. Consider that Toronto had scored 10 runs in their previous 6 innings, then consider that Street struck out four men in two innings (including the side in the 8th) on 26 pitches, with seven of those thrown to Frank Catalanotto, who grounded out to start Street off in the seventh. Anybody paying attention to A's games right now who wasn't already excited about Street sure is now. It'll be interesting to see what happens to an already over-crowded bullpen when Chad Bradford is ready to come back in a few months. Depending on Oakland's place in the playoff chase, I wouldn't be surprised to see Octavio Dotel heading out of town in July to a suitably desperate contender. I also wouldn't be suprised to see that happen and have the A's contend for the division down the stretch anyway, similar to their 1999 "pre-breakout" season when they sent Billy Taylor to the Mets. Anyway, on to the ARC.

ARC

MVOP for 4/11: Mark Ellis, 1.4635, for going 2-3 with a walk and one of just three Oakland RBI. LVOP for 4/11: Nick Swisher, -2.1608, for an 0-4 with a nasty early double play with runners on the corners and one out. MVP for 4/11: Huston Street, 1.0758, for two scoreless innings. Allowing hits and walks don't count against you unless you allow runs, but that didn't matter for Street, who allowed nothing to happen against him. LVP for 4/11: Kirk Saarloos, -4.4663, duh.

Standings

MVOP:

1. Mark Ellis -- 2
2. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes, Mark Kotsay, Erubiel Durazo -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 3
2. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher -- 1

MVP:

1. Huston Street -- 2
2. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon, Kirk Saarloos -- 1

I'll post the updated reliever stats here later, when I'm at home and can access my spreadsheets. I'll do the same for the overall ARC stats.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 15:42 | |

Let's thank goodness for a few things:

• Rich Harden: he threw five and a third good innings against Tampa Bay on Sunday, with his only run allowed coming when Justin Duchscherer allowed an inherited runner to score from second with one out. Harden walked two and had six fly-ball outs compared to just four groundouts, but one run allowed is one run allowed however you slice it.
• The A's bullpen: Duchscherer's aforementioned inherited runner allowed to score was the only black mark against the three and two thirds innings picked up by the 'pen last night. Duke, Kiko Calero, and Octavio Dotel combined to strike out six batters while allowing three hits and no walks in those innings.
• The A's ability to put together a rally occasionally: Oakland put the game away in the sixth, scoring four runs on just two hits against three pitchers.

We also have to be fair, though, and point out some negative trends I see shaping up.

• Sacrifices! I knew Ken Macha's "work on the fundamentals" in the spring was worrisome. The A's have already laid down two sac bunts this year, putting them on pace for 54, after having just 25 last year. If Macha had his druthers, Oakland would have already laid down three bunts, because before Eric Byrnes hit that big three-run homer against Baltimore the other night, he fouled off a bunt attempt. Sure, Macha made a great decision by taking the bunt off, but still, Oakland doesn't have any hitters that should be bunting before the 8th inning.
• Jason Kendall's inability to throw out baserunners. Kendall has already allowed eight stolen bases against just one runner caught stealing this year. His career caught-stealing percentage is close to 31% and I don't see a noticeable downward trend, so there's a good chance that them's just the breaks, but it's something to keep an eye on.

ARC

MVOP for 4/10: Erubiel Durazo, 2.0311, for a big two-run single and a couple of walks. LVOP for 4/10: Marco Scutaro, -1.5152, but that's not entirely his fault, since he laid down the sacrifice that I castigated earlier. Granted, he was 0-3 aside from that, but who knows, maybe he comes up with a big hit if Macha lets him bat in that situation. On the other hand, maybe he hits into a double play and ends up with a truly terrible day. MVP for 4/10: Rich Harden, 2.0809, for holding down the Rays for a little over five innings. LVP for 4/10: All four pitchers earned positive ARC in the game.

Standings

MVOP:

1. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes, Mark Ellis, Mark Kotsay, Erubiel Durazo -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 3
2. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro -- 1

MVP:

1. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren, Justin Duchscherer, Huston Street, Rich Harden -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon -- 1

Relievers

The updated run-differential rankings look like this:

1. Cruz 0.00
2. Rincon 2.33
3. Duchscherer 3.00
4. Calero 4.00
5. Dotel 7.00
6. Yabu 7.00
7. Street 8.00

The A's inability to think outside the box on using Dotel in close games when Oakland is behind is forcing them to put him in games where he's not needed just to get him work.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 19:16 | |

I watched a number of games (Chicago at Arizona, 4/4; Atlanta at Florida, 4/5; Boston at New York, 4/6; Atlanta at Florida, 4/6; Los Angeles at San Francisco, 4/6) this week on the old tube, so as a capital-B Blogger, I'm legally obligated to tell you the kinds of things I was thinking about while I was watching. First, the pitchers. It seemed like every time I turned around, someone or other was getting smoked: Javier Vazquez for the Diamondbacks, John Smoltz making his starting re-debut, Mariano Rivera continue his long painful descent against the Red Sox, and the whole San Francisco bullpen giving up laser after laser to the Dodgers. Each pitcher seemed to have a different reason for struggling, though, which is what makes the game so great. Vazquez didn't have any kind of curveball, so the Cubs just sat back and waited for the fastball, which was only mediocre, and hammered it. And they really were hammering it, too, hitting line drives all over the place, not getting bloops to just drop in or anything. John Smoltz, on the other hand, didn't look terrible, despite the results. In the first inning, he had Luis Castillo down before he walked him on some close pitches, Rafael Furcal nearly took away Miguel Cabrera's single, and Mike Lowell had two strikes before he fouled off a number of pitches, then dumped a weak hit into left. Fouling pitches off until they got one to hit really seemed to be the Marlins's M.O. in the first inning. Well, except for Juan Encarnacion. He simply hammered a terrible hanging pitch from Smoltz for the grand slam that essentially ended the game before it really got a chance to get going. I didn't really get any notes on Rivera or the Giant bullpen. Rivera was just off, his usual pinpoint control with the cutter not really there, and the results reflected that. The San Francisco relievers ... well, maybe they're just not any good.

Defense

The other common thread that seemed to run throughout these games was defense, some good, some bad, and some that left me scrambling for stats. First, Miguel Cabrera. I had the pleasure of getting to watch two games worth of the young left fielder at the plate, and the pain of watching him lumber around in the outfield. Twice balls flew out to left that I thought would be easy outs but dropped in for hits in front of him. It's hard to tell from TV what kind of jumps he's getting, but he really seems to run awkwardly, and, if the Marlins hadn't acquired Carlos Delgado this off-season, I might start wondering about a move to first base in the near future. On the other hand, Cabrera's defensive statistics calculated by Baseball Prospectus don't really back up my observational skills: he has a 103 Rate (i.e. he's three runs above average every hundred games) in 114 games in left, so he's essentially been an average defender out there. On the other hand, in 34 games at third base, his rate is just 93 and in 100 games in right, it is 92. Basically, it looks like he's a natural left fielder. He's good enough to rumble around out there and not hurt his team relative to other left fielders because they all rumble just as much as he does. Any move to the right on the defensive spectrum could hurt the Marlins, though. Next, the Yankees. Oh, it's always fun to pick on a team like New York when they can't assemble a half-way decent defense up the middle. Bernie Williams is visibly slow in center field and just doesn't get to balls he used to get to. In the fourth inning of the game, Doug Mirabelli hit a single to center that the old Bernie or any decent center fielder would have gotten, but the zombie version could only watch it helplessly drop in. Tony Womack is at least as shaky as Bernie, though it's not age-related: he's got a career Rate of 96 at second base, and it's only that high because of a great 112 season in 1998. In no other season was he even over 91. As you might expect, he's not much of a shortstop, either, with a career rate of 92. To be that bad, you've got to have bad range, but what I noticed with Womack was bad hands. He just doesn't seem comfortable scooping up a ground ball of any kind, in stark contrast to, say, Jeff Kent, who I'll talk about later. Finally, Derek Jeter. What else is there to say? A career Rate of 91 at short, buoyed by a career year of 102 last season, with visibly awful range. He's not just not making tough plays that good shortstop make in the hole: the play that prompted my note was a slow roller hit by Kevin Millar. Jeter made his classic dive, getting dirty and looking pretty while doing absolutely nothing to help the team, while Millar cruised in to first base. Back to Jeff Kent: I'm not really aware of Kent's defensive reputation in the mainstream community. I'd guess that people who haven't seen him play or who don't know the numbers would look at his size and his hitting ability and figure that he's a butcher, a guy who only plays there so he can give his team offensive value. Of course, they couldn't be further from the truth. Kent has a career Rate of 100 at second, which is dragged down by three pretty bad years with the Mets early in his career. It looks to me like some infield coach in Cleveland or San Francisco got ahold of him and turned him into a good defensive infielder. It's not quite an Eric Chavez-style turnaround, but he went from Rates of 86, 92, and 92 with the Mets to 104, 96, 99, 106, 113, 104, 97, and 108 in his last eight seasons. No, he's not always above average, and he had only one really great year, but he's gone from a guy you might want to consider moving to first base to someone who at worst will provide an average presence at second. He's actually a case where the eyes match up with the numbers, too. He doesn't look like he does an outstanding job out there (no cannon for an arm, no otherworldly range), but he looks very smooth and in control all the time, and you really start to notice that he gets to balls. Even when he's ranging into right field and throwing off balance to first base, the throw is on the money, not rushed, and makes the out.

Posted by jason in Baseball at 12:08 | |

So, uh, pretty much Barry Zito still sucks. Jesus, this is going to be a longer year than I thought it would be. Eleven runs allowed? To the Devil Rays!? And then the devestating axis of Hideo Nomo, Lance Carter, and Seth McClung (that's sarcasm, folks) shut the A's "offense" down to boot. Good lord. This combined with the 4-0 loss in the first game of the season makes for the most depressing first week in recent memory. I'm searching for some kind of positive here. Keiichi Yabu had a decent outing in his debut, though he didn't do well with the runners he inherited from Barry Zito. He did, however, have an impressive run of three innings after that, including one in which he struck out the side. Keith Ginter also tied for the team lead with his second homer of the year, though it was meaningless except for his stats.

ARC

Since that's the only positive news for the day, let's get to the ARC: MVOP: Mark Kotsay, 1.388, for homering and walking in his only two trips to the plate before being removed in the sixth with the A's down by ten. LVOP: Erubiel Durazo, -1.1729, who's in a funk, winning this award two days in a row. He went 0-4 with two men left on base. Scott Hatteberg had the same performance, but Durazo kept making outs in front of him, lowering the cost of his outs. MVP: Huston Street, 0.5379, for a scoreless eighth inning. LVP: Barry Zito, -5.3288, for (duh) giving up an uncountable infinity of runs.

Updated Standings

MVOP:

1. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes, Mark Ellis, Mark Kotsay -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 3
2. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty -- 1

MVP:

1. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren, Justin Duchscherer, Huston Street -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito -- 2
2. Ricardo Rincon -- 1

Relievers

Using Larry Mahnken's DIPS Worksheet, I've calculated the projected (by PECOTA) DIPS ERA for each of the A's seven relievers plus a few others who could see time for Oakland this year.

Player	dERA
Octavio Dotel	4.05
Chad Bradford	4.13
Huston Street	4.26
Ricardo Rincon	4.40
Kiko Calero	4.49
Juan Cruz	4.50
Jairo Garcia	4.63
Justin Duchscherer	4.67
Seth Etherton	4.71
Tim Harikkala	4.76
Keiichi Yabu	4.84

And by VORP/IP, also projected by PECOTA:

Player	VORP/IP
Octavio Dotel	0.343
Kiko Calero	0.255
Huston Street	0.232
Chad Bradford	0.232
Juan Cruz	0.192
Justin Duchscherer	0.184
Ricardo Rincon	0.169
Tim Harikkala	0.165
Jairo Garcia	0.162
Keiichi Yabu	0.139
Seth Etherton	0.126

The lists, as you might expect, are pretty close. Thus we see a pecking order that we'd hope to also see in the run differential of the games that these pitchers are entering. Thus far, that pecking order looks like this:

Pitcher	Avg. Run Diff.
Cruz	0.00
Duchscherer	2.00
Rincon	2.33
Calero	4.00
Yabu	7.00
Street	8.00
Dotel	9.00

Best candidate to see his ARD go down very quickly? Dotel. Best candidate to have a Duchscherer-type year and see his ARD go down slowly as Ken Macha and Curt Young gain more confidence in his ability? Huston Street, as predicted by PECOTA.

Posted by jason in Baseball at 00:39 | |