Beaneball

The A's just couldn't, as Ken Macha said after the game, come up with a big hit last night. The pitching was as strong as usual, even accounting for the Devil Rays's lack of baseball ability, because holding any "major league" team to three runs in ten innings is an accomplishment and should leave you with a chance to win the game. The Oakland offense early this year, though, looks a lot like it has in the recent past: inconsistent. It's four games, so don't take this as panic or even as a sign of things to come, but the early results are that 2005 is, so far, an extension of 2004. MVOP for 4/8: Mark Ellis, 1.3151, with three hits in five trips, including a base hit in the top of the 10th with Charles Thomas on second base. I didn't see the game, so I can't place any blame, but it's unfortunate that the A's couldn't score the runner from second with that hit. Maybe the Devil Rays score a run in the bottom of the inning anyway and we keep playing, but maybe the A's bring in Octavio Dotel instead and he blows Tampa away. Youneverknow. LVOP for 4/8: Erubiel Durazo, -3.0663, with a terrible game. He came up in a number of big spots and couldn't come through in any of them, going 0-5 for 7 men left on base. His bases-loaded double-play ground ball in the ninth is the lowlight of the season so far. MVP for 4/8: Justin Duchscherer, 0.8752, for two scoreless innings before allowing a runner to reach third at the beginning of the eighth inning. LVP for 4/8: Ricardo Rincon, -0.2514, for hitting the one man he faced with a pitch, putting runners on first and third with no outs in the eighth inning, a situation Juan Cruz wriggled out from under.

Standings

MVOP:

1. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes, Mark Ellis -- 1

LVOP:

1. Erubiel Durazo -- 2
2. Mark Ellis, Bobby Kielty -- 1

MVP:

1. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren, Justin Duchscherer -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito, Ricardo Rincon -- 1

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 09:48 | |

The list of who's been the most valuable and least valuable the most times thus far: MVOP:

1. Marco Scutaro, Nick Swisher, Eric Byrnes -- 1

LVOP:

1. Mark Ellis, Erubiel Durazo, Bobby Kielty -- 1

MVP:

1. Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos, Dan Haren -- 1

LVP:

1. Barry Zito -- 1

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 09:11 | |

The A's had a pretty impressive opening series against Baltimore, allowing just five runs over three games against a team that was supposed to have a very strong offense. Oakland was shut out in the first game, which is embarassing for two reasons: who gets shut out on Opening Day?; and who gets shut out by the Orioles? Some of the play-by-play stats for the series: MVOP (Most Valuable Offensive Player) of Game 1 (4/4): Marco Scutaro, 0.3103, on the basis of a 1-2 day with a double.' LVOP of Game 1 (4/4): Mark Ellis, -1.0477, with an 0-3 with 3 men LOB for the day. He was spared further ignominy (or a chance to redeem himself) when Keith Ginter pinch-hit for him in the ninth inning. MVP (Most Valuable Pitcher) of Game 1 (4/4): Kiko Calero, 1.1772, with a nice one-inning debut with the personal value pumped by having to get an extra out due to Mark Ellis's throwing error. LVP (Least Valuable Pitcher) of Game 1 (4/4): Barry Zito, -0.7726, with a mediocre start at best, though his last two innings were very nice and turned an awful day into a merely bad one. MVOP of Game 2 (4/6): Nick Swisher, 2.902, with two bombs. LVOP of Game 2 (4/6): Erubiel Durazo, -0.6225, despite getting on base twice. MVP of Game 2 (4/6): Kirk Saarloos, 3.2274, for shutting down the Orioles for six uneventful innings (the best kind a pitcher can hope for). LVP of Game 2 (4/6): Technically, there were three, as all three relief pitchers (Huston Street, Ricardo Rincon, and Octavio Dotel) pitched innings without giving up any runs, earning 0.5379 ARC for their efforts, but I refuse to award an LVP to a non-negative ARC-earner. MVOP of Game 3 (4/7): Eric Byrnes, 1.9169, for the big three-run homer. LVOP of Game 3 (4/7): Bobby Kielty, -1.1103, with an 0-4 with 3 LOB. MVP of Game 3 (4/7): Dan Haren, 2.2274, with a very solid 6-inning Oakland debut. LVP of Game 3 (4/7): No negative scores. The up-to-date totals are here. The team leader thus far is Kirk Saarloos, with the most valuable offensive player being Eric Byrnes.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 00:03 | |

I've spent the last few weeks writing and tweaking a script that will add a new bit of interest to this site. I got interested in using play-by-play data to determine the cumulative run values of players' actions on the field ever since I first saw a run expectancy table (like this one at Baseball Prospectus [Premium Subscription required], though I think I saw my first one in Earnshaw Cook's book). With nice computer-readable play-by-play data not readily available for free, however (damn the baseball community's lack of Open Source spirit), I can't create these stats on a large-scale basis. What I can do, though, is create these stats for the A's. I have to enter the data by hand from Internet-published play-by-play accounts of the game, but that's the point of my script: it cuts down an arduous task to one that takes just a few minutes for any game. To find out more about my method, see this paper by Jim Albert. It's the most basic method possible, and it doesn't adjust for park or position or anything else, but I see it as, essentially, a toy anyway. It's not predictive, it's largely situation-based, and it's not especially elegant, but it is fun to look at and can be useful for certain situations: relief pitching, for instance. A probability-based stat is more elegant and, in my mind, more useful for relief pitcher evaluation, but, because I largely conceived of this project being only for hitters (it will include pitchers, though), I went with the runs-based model. For each game, I'll update the stats and post the MVP and LVP, ideally along with the usual witty and insightful (and sarcastic, particularly toward myself) commentary (all three of) you are used to. Just to give you a taste, the offensive MVP of last night's 9-0 win over the Orioles was, unsurprisingly, Nick Swisher, with 2.902 ARC (Actual Runs Created?). The offensive LVP was, on a night when no one was very bad, Erubiel Durazo, with -0.6225 ARC.

Relievers

Don't forget about my other relief pitcher project, because I haven't. I'll be updating that every day as well, though to save bandwidth, I'll hide the images and force you to click to get them if you want to see, for example, the running average of run differential for Huston Street so far. A taste of that as well: Octavio Dotel figures, by PECOTA's VORP/IP projection, to be the most valuable of the five A's who've pitched out of the bullpen so far, is also the pitcher who's thrown in the most meaningless game, coming in for Oakland last night when the score was already 9-0.

Posted by jason in Baseball, Oakland A's at 14:27 | |

I DVR'd the Kansas City-Detroit tilt yesterday, which was taking place while I was teaching, and watched it when I got home, having decided that if there's any reason to watch these two teams play, it's to get my first post of the season done about them. Jose Lima started for the Royals and Jeremy Bonderman went for the Tigers. I wasn't expecting much out of either starter. On the one hand, it was Lima time, and on the other, Bonderman had an ERA just below five last year when half his games were at Comerica, so you can understand how I thought I might see a 9-7 final score. Thing is, though, I misjudged two things: the weakness of the Royal offense (weak!) and the continued development of Jeremy Bonderman. The latter is more relevant to this blog, since he is a former Oakland prospect and all. We all know that Bonderman throws hard. What surprised me was the movement on his pitches. I haven't watched him in person much, if at all, so I don't know if this is a new development or if he's had a nice sink on some of his fastballs for a while. Either way, the down-and-in-to-righties bite on his hard two-seamer was effective all afternoon. The Royals weren't really putting the bat on the ball, as Bonderman struck out seven and gave up just six hits in his seven innings, but even on nights when the opposition is making contact, that pitch could generate a lot of ground balls. That said, Bondermans G/F ratio for the night was 6/8, so he either needs to harness his stuff a little more effectively or my eyes are fooling me as to the actual quality of his moving pitches.

Former A's

Speaking of former A's, it sure seemed like there were a lot of them in this game. Besides Bonderman, the Tigers had Carlos Pena at first base, which makes sense because the two arrived in the same trade. The Royals, though, looked like Oakland Midwest: the bottom five hitters in the lineup had Matt Stairs in right field (Oakland juvenated the Hamster's career, of course), Angel Berroa at shortstop (part of the Johnny Damon deal), Terrence Long in left (let's just try to forget), John Buck at catcher (okay, so he wasn't really an Athletic, but he was part of the three-way deal last year that sent Carlos Beltran to Houston), and Mark Teahen at third (a former Moneyball draftee). Teahen and Buck seem like they've got as good a shot at American League Rookie of the Year honors as anyone. It certainly seems as though the award favors those who play the whole year and rack up decent counting stats over those who are actually the most valuable. See Bobby Crosby last year if you don't know what I'm talking about. Both of the Royal Rookies seem like locks to get the majority of the playing time at their positions: the Royals aren't going anywhere, so they seem unlikely to let anything stop them from giving each guy upwards of 450 plate appearances this year. Buck's weighted mean PECOTA comes in at .263/.314/.432 with 12 homers in a little over 350 PA's. Teahen's projection is much less favorable, particularly given his position: .248/.317/.372 with seven homers in about the same number of trips to the plate as Buck. Buck's projected OPS of 746 is remarkably close to Crosby's 2004 mark of 745, and both are shaped similarly. Crosby, though, hit 22 homers, was playing on a contending team, and was regarded to posess excellent defensive skills (which Baseball Prospectus agrees with, having him at a 105 Rate for 2004). One more point in Buck's favor, though, since I just deflated him like that? I swear he's a dead ringer for Jeff Kent. (Kent had a 742 OPS with 11 homers his rookie year, which he split between Toronto and the Mets. Spooky numbers!)

The Crew

As much as I'll always prefer national announcers' supposed neutrality to the blatant homerism of local game callers, Gary Thorne had a tough night. I noted a number of game-calling mistakes (calling a ball instead of a strike, for example), he kept calling Angel Berroa "Angel Berroha," and he repeatedly insisted that Royals reliever (and former Cub prospect) Andy Sisco was 6'10", even after the ESPN graphic listed him at 6'8". To his credit, he pointed out that the NL West was a pretty good challenger for weakest division in baseball, echoing my protest when one of the analysts referred to the AL Central as taking that "honor."

Alan Trammell

I liked Alan Trammell as a player, though I wasn't really aware of baseball until he was already in his thirties, but he made some interesting decisions last night with his pitching staff. Knowing that he had the next day off and with the game already in hand going to the top of the seventh, Trammell could have gone to his bullpen earlier than he might usually and saved Jeremy Bonderman some work. Bonderman wound up throwing 102 pitches, hardly a ridiculous number, but had he been sat down at the end of the sixth, he'd have only thrown 85. I don't know whether throwing fewer pitches helps a pitcher stay fresher for the next game the same way that throwing too many hurts him down the road, but in an 8-1 ballgame, why not get some back-of-the-bullpen pitchers get some early innings and see if any of the might shake out to become useful guys later on? Trammell, though, let Bonderman throw the seventh, then went to Ugueth Urbina, his top setup guy, in the eighth inning of a 9-1 game before finishing up with Troy Percival in the ninth with the score 11-2. Is it that important to let your star relievers throw on opening day that you have them pitch in 8- and 9-run ballgames? Yes, they have the next day off, so both pitchers should be available for their next game. But why take a chance? If you're going to replace Carlos Guillen at short with Jason Smith, someone who shouldn't see a meaningful inning of work this year if all goes well for the Tigers, shouldn't the same principle apply with your pitching staff?

Posted by jason in Baseball at 18:52 | |

Believe it or not, yes, still alive. I watched the Yankees-Red Sox tilt last night, as un-entertaining as it was. Randy Johnson looked good, though not as good as the New York Times's gushings this morning made it seem he was: he was wilder than I've seen him in the past, though the ~40 degree starting temperature might have had something to do with that, even if he wasn't nervous. David Wells was as bad as advertised, though. When a guy who absolutely relies on his control hits Jason Giambi twice, once on an 0-2 count, you know it's going to be a tough night. The ovation for Tino Martinez when he came out to play defense for Giambi was heartwarming, even for an avowed Yankee-hater. He can still hit a little (.290 EqA last year) and he's always played good defense (career Rate of 107), so he ought to be a nifty little addition for the Yankees, particularly if he's going to keep sprawling full-on over the right-field line to take away late-inning doubles. Neither team is as good or as bad as they respectively looked last night, though I think we saw some seeds of what's to come: an awesome, if not quite as awesome as years past, season from Randy Johnson; a still-powerful Yankee offense; a disappointing-to-Sox-fans year from Edgar Renteria; and a Boston bullpen full of all sorts of tricks and surprises that could be dominating on some nights and have guys go "Sproing!" and "Ga-long!" on others.

Posted by jason in Baseball at 15:49 | |

Long time since last post. Still alive. Season starts soon. Working on fun play-by-play stats project that should be updated day-by-day in 2005 season. Want to have 2004 stats up, but unlikely to get done before beginning of season. Also considering mild redesign to reflect additions that aren't quite blog-like - perhaps tabs across top for different sections of site. Will see. To justify existence, here are predictions from BP Predictatron contest:

American League East Baltimore Orioles 87 - 75 Boston Red Sox 98 - 64 (Division) New York Yankees 97 - 65 (Wild Card) Tampa Bay Devil Rays 66 - 96 Toronto Blue Jays 81 - 81 American League Central Chicago White Sox 85 - 77 Cleveland Indians 81 - 81 Detroit Tigers 73 - 89 Kansas City Royals 72 - 90 Minnesota Twins 88 - 74 (Division) American League West Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 91 - 71 (Division) Oakland Athletics 89 - 73 Seattle Mariners 70 - 92 Texas Rangers 75 - 87 National League East Atlanta Braves 92 - 70 (Division) Florida Marlins 84 - 78 New York Mets 78 - 84 Philadelphia Phillies 91 - 71 Washington Nationals 69 - 93 National League Central Chicago Cubs 83 - 79 Cincinnati Reds 70 - 92 Houston Astros 92 - 70 (Wild Card) Milwaukee Brewers 78 - 84 Pittsburgh Pirates 62 - 100 St. Louis Cardinals 95 - 67 (Division) National League West Arizona Diamondbacks 69 - 93 Colorado Rockies 71 - 91 Los Angeles Dodgers 89 - 73 (Division) San Diego Padres 84 - 78 San Francisco Giants 70 - 92 PLAYOFFS: American League Division Series: Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins in 4 games New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 3 games National League Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals in 5 games Atlanta Braves over Houston Astros in 5 games American League Championship Series: New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox in 7 games National League Championship Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves in 6 games World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Yankees in 6 games

Mostly somewhat boring and lame, but there they are. See no reason why playoff picture from last year should have changed.

Posted by jason in Baseball at 18:36 | |