Beaneball

Johnny Damon got big money from the Yankees to be their new centerfielder, signing a four-year, $52M deal. A friend mentioned this last night when I came into the bar where we were celebrating¹. My immediate reaction was, "Bah, watch him put up a .330 on-base percentage last year." To his credit as a friend, he didn't embarass me by mentioning that Damon hasn't put up an adjusted OBP that low since 1996, when he was a 22-year old second-year player with the Royals. Oops. Damon's last three adjusted OBP's have been .350, .382, and .381. His power numbers have bounced around a bit: ISO's of .135, .181, and .135 the last three years. You really can't know what you're going to get out of him power-wise, but from an on-base perspective, he doesn't seem to be quite at that "fall off a cliff" age yet (he'll be 32 this year, and 35 at the end of the contract), so it looks like the Yankees will have that second on-base threat at the top of the order that they just couldn't find last year. What about defense? From some of the commentary I've read around the internet, there doesn't appear to be a lot of regard for Damon's glove. It's widely acknowledged that his arm sucks (he might have the most awkward throwing motion in the game today), but BP's Rate stat marks him as an above-average center-fielder from 2000-04. He dropped to below-average last year, which isn't a very good sign of things to come, considering his age. Damon is, in short, a very good player: it's not like having him on your team is something to shake your head about. The problem for the Yankees is that he'll be eating up $13M per year. That's really a lot of money for a 5-6 win player. There is, however, something to be said for the fact that it's not just the Yankees getting Damon, but also the Red Sox not having him, considering they are direct competitors for the division title.

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1:We were celebrating having just completed our last exam for the semester, not Johnny Damon's signing.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 07:13 | |

The Padres and Rangers pulled off a trade today. As usual, I'm intrigued by what the Padres are doing, even if they make mystifying moves sometimes (the Brian Lawrence trade, for instance). The deal is

Padres get	Rangers get
Chris Young	Adam Eaton
Adrian Gonzalez	Akinori Otsuka
Terrmel Sledge	Billy Killian

The Rangers are going to sell this deal as a necessary one to improve their pitching. I'm a little disappointed that the new boy wonder GM in Texas, Jon Daniels, felt the need to make this deal, especially since it looks to me like he gave up the better starting pitcher in the deal, as well as the younger and cheaper one. Chris Young's DERA's from the last two years (only seven starts in 2004, but 31 last year) were 4.42 and 3.96. Eaton, who's a year older and is looking for an extension in the range of $9M per year, has not even approached a DERA near four since his rookie season in 2000, when he posted a 4.05 mark. Since then, he's been injured a couple of times and never posted a DERA under 4.57. So in exchange for the rights to a worse, more expensive starting pitcher, the Rangers also threw in Adrian Gonzalez. It seems like Gonzalez has been around forever, but he's only going to be 24 next year and it seems like he might have had his power breakthrough last year: he posted a .223 ISO in 328 AB's in Oklahoma and a .180 ISO in 150 AB's in Texas. He looks, at least, like good insurance for Ryan Klesko this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually out-performed him, if given the opportunity. Akinori Otsuka should be a useful part out of the Ranger bullpen, though he'll be 34 and saw his walk and strikeout rates go the wrong direction last year. Terrmel Sledge was injured last year, but he'll be cheap depth for the Padres. Finally, Billy Killian is a catcher drafted in the third round of the '04 draft out of a Michigan high school. He'll be twenty this year, but appeared to be injured last season, appearing in only 14 games in Eugene, so I wonder where he'll play this year. Clinton? Bakersfied? Or even Spokane?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 19:14 | |

This little tidbit is in Rolling Stones's daily music news email:

American Idol runner-up BO BICE was rushed to an undisclosed Las Vegas hospital on Sunday for complications due to recent intestinal surgery. The rocker was last in Vegas in late August, with the American Idols Live tour, when he underwent emergency surgery to repair a blocked intestine and was unable to complete the scheduled dates. After ASHLEE SIMPSON was admitted to a Tokyo hospital after collapsing in Japan last week, Bice was scheduled as her replacement for last night's Radio Music Awards in Vegas. He was replaced at the last minute by the GOO GOO DOLLS. Bice is returning to his Nashville home to recover.

Caps are theirs, bold and italics are mine. How far have the Goo Goo Dolls fallen that they're not just Bo Bice's replacement, but they're actually the third choice behind both Bice and Ashlee Simpson? Wow.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Music at 13:25 | |

I saw this post over at BlackProf about a rather brilliant law professor who posted an outline from his property class online while he was a student. Problem: the outline contained racially offensive shorthand. As you can see at the bottom of the post, I left the following comment, which still, a little time later, sums up my feelings on the matter:

That's disgusting. How does someone like this end up being allowed to teach at places like Harvard and Stanford? It doesn't matter how smart he is: if someone is going to be so blase about using such slurs (he didn't even apologize!), then they aren't smart enough to realize what kind of effect that language can have on actual people, and they don't deserve the chance to have any kind of effect on the "next generation" (i.e. the students at whatever law school is so callous and hungry for researchers as to hire him).

I do want to note, however, that I don't think the Yale Law Journal ought to reject his article. I've noted before that it's ridiculous that law reviews put any weight whatsoever on who the author of the article is instead of paying attention entirely to the content. Arguing here that Camara should be punished for his views with a ban on publishing would be hypocritical. And wrong.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Law at 18:44 | |

Over at Athletics Nation, there was a lot of debate about whether the signing of Esteban Loaiza was a good idea. You know my feelings on the matter from my earlier post. Here's a link to the most recent thread that I was involved in on this debate. The last comment that I responded to was this:

Roger Clemens Pedro Martinez John Smoltz Jose Contreras Randy Johnson Kenny Rogers Tom Glavine Paul Byrd All of them are as old or older than Loaiza. All of them were amongst the most effective starting pitchers in the league.

"Cherry-picking will make any group look good," is the gist of my response. Let's instead take a look at all the pitchers in the league last year who were 34, 35, or 36 (the ages Loaiza will be through the life of this contract).

Player	Age	IP	DERA
Alvarez, W	35	24.0	5.57
Astacio, P	35	67.0	5.23
Astacio, P	35	59.7	3.24
Batista, M	34	74.7	4.56
Borowski, J	34	11.0	6.27
Borowski, J	34	35.3	3.47
Bottalico, R	35	41.7	5.06
Byrd, P	34	204.3	4.23
Carrasco, H	35	88.3	2.69
Castillo, F	36	4.3	10.65
Christiansen, J	35	3.7	2.64
Christiansen, J	35	42.0	5.55
Creek, D	36	22.3	7.01
Darensbourg, V	34	22.3	2.93
DeJean, M	34	25.7	6.63
DeJean, M	34	36.7	3.00
Eischen, J	35	36.3	3.77
Embree, A	35	14.3	8.16
Embree, A	35	37.7	7.09
Fox, C	34	8.0	6.42
Guardado, E	34	56.3	3.71
Hasegawa, S	36	66.7	4.18
Helling, R	34	49.0	2.51
Herges, M	35	21.0	4.56
Herges, M	35	8.0	12.23
Jarvis, K	35	3.3	13.32
Kida, M	36	2.0	4.47
Koo, D	36	23.0	4.76
Lieber, J	35	218.3	4.35
Ligtenberg, K	34	9.7	12.73
Mahay, R	34	35.7	6.12
Martin, T	35	2.3	18.65
Mecir, J	35	43.3	3.53
Miceli, D	34	18.3	5.10
Mussina, M	36	179.7	4.39
Myers, M	36	37.3	3.08
Nomo, H	36	100.7	6.76
Percival, T	35	25.0	5.61
Quantrill, P	36	32.0	6.29
Quantrill, P	36	31.7	3.74
Quantrill, P	36	5.3	11.58
Reyes, A	34	62.7	2.52
Rhodes, A	35	43.3	2.95
Rincon, R	35	37.3	4.56
Rivera, M	35	78.3	2.06
Rueter, K	34	107.3	6.29
Seanez, R	36	60.3	2.99
Sele, A	35	116.0	5.80
Shouse, B	36	53.3	5.39
Springer, R	36	59.0	5.24
Sturtze, T	34	78.0	4.66
Takatsu, S	36	28.7	5.72
Takatsu, S	36	7.7	2.58
Trachsel, S	34	37.0	4.92
Villone, R	35	40.3	3.20
Villone, R	35	23.7	7.50
Walker, P	36	84.0	3.54
Weathers, D	35	77.7	3.96
Weber, B	35	12.3	7.51
White, R	36	75.0	4.63
Wickman, B	36	62.0	2.75
Williams, T	34	76.3	3.80
Yabu, K	36	58.0	5.20

Players appear more than once if they pitched for more than one team. For what it's worth, the only team without a player on the list is Kansas City. And they didn't skate by with someone too old to qualify, either: no pitcher for the Royals was older than 33 this year. That's not really a list of impressive numbers. Let's cut it down and see what the list of starting pitchers looks like.

Astacio, P	35	67.0	5.23
Astacio, P	35	59.7	3.24
Byrd, P	34	204.3	4.23
Castillo, F	36	4.3	10.65
Helling, R	34	49.0	2.51
Lieber, J	35	218.3	4.35
Mussina, M	36	179.7	4.39
Nomo, H	36	100.7	6.76
Rueter, K	34	107.3	6.29
Sele, A	35	116.0	5.80
Trachsel, S	34	37.0	4.92

So: Astacio was good half the time, bad half the time, and hurt half the time; Byrd was ok; Castillo wasn't good enough to pitch in the majors, throwing 143 innings in AAA; Helling spent most of the season in AAA, though his major league performance was good; Lieber was mediocre; Mussina was mediocre and injured; Nomo was bad; Rueter was bad; Sele was bad; and Trachsel was mostly injured, but unimpressive when healthy. That's a really unimpressive group of age-comparable pitchers, and that's exactly why I'm so unoptimistic about Loaiza's chances.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 14:42 | |

Those new "The LeBrons" ads for LeBron James's Nike shoe are sheer brilliance. They bring a beautiful mix of smoove seventies style with pure oddness (the dance-off; Kid LeBron's daydream about dunking his biscuit with the cheerleader watching) that might be unmatched on TV right now. Plus, I didn't even realize just how not hidden the sexual metaphor of that daydream was until I wrote the phrase "dunking his biscuit." There went any pretense that this is a family blog.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball, Television at 16:35 | |

I came across this post on Dodger Thoughts from about ten days ago that mentioned that Antonio Perez had suffered a broken cheekbone. I never noticed this in the mainstream sources (though now I see that it is mentioned in the MLB.com story about the trade), but I hope it's not something that could have an effect on his batting eye, considering that seems to basically be his only offensive weapon.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 09:46 | |

ESPN is talking up the Javier Vazquez trade from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox as a "rich get richer" story, tossing around phrases like "best rotation ever." Ever? I hope they're kidding. Mark Buehrle's a really good pitcher. Freddy Garcia seems to have gotten back on track after two bad years in Seattle ('02 and '03). Jon Garland might have turned a corner. But it's looking like Javier Vazquez might've just had an early peak, and you never really know what you might get out of Jose Contreras. Sure, Contreras could've figured American baseball out this year and have a few good years left in his arm, Vazquez might've been scarred by the Yankee experience and last year's upturn in Arizona might portend a return to his Montreal days, and Jon Garland might be for real. But are we so sure of these things that we can really start using words like "ever?" Forgive me if I'm a little skeptical. Just to pretend that this post has anything to do with the A's, let's compare the two rotations by last year's DERA (so we have a rate stat) and this year's age:

Sox	DERA		A's
Buehrle, 27	3.86	3.12	Harden, 24
Garland, 26	3.88	3.92	Blanton, 25
Contreras, 34	4.03	4.15	Loaiza, 34
Garcia, 30	4.07	4.20	Zito, 28
Vazquez, 29	4.21	4.22	Haren, 25

The A's match up pretty well. Where were the cries of "best rotation ever!" when Oakland signed Loaiza? EDIT: A comment pointed out that I wrote "traded for Loaiza" when it clearly was supposed to be signed. Thanks for the heads-up.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 21:42 | |

It's not every day you see a trade of one minor leaguer for one and a half major leaguers. That's exactly what the A's and Dodgers pulled off today, though, with Andre Ethier (minor leaguer) going to Los Angeles for Milton Bradley (major leaguer) and Antonio Perez (half-and-half). I'm pretty excited about acquiring Bradley: he'll be 28 this year and in two of the last three years he's put up adjusted slugging percentages over .500 from the right side of the plate. It's no secret that the A's were hoping to get some power from the right side, and this might well have solved that problem. The outfield's looking a little crowded again, enough so that I wouldn't bet on a Frank Thomas acquisition. I'm guessing the everyday outfield will be Payton-Kotsay-Bradley, with Kielty slotting in sometimes and Nick Swisher becoming the everyday first baseman. That does leave Dan Johnson to be a full-time DH, and people always cringe about guys being DHs when they're young, but if it worries Ken Macha and the A's at all, they can always stick him out there when Barry Zito's pitching and let Swisher DH on those days. Now, Bradley does come with some warts: he's had temper issues in the past and he played in fewer than half of Los Angeles's games last year. In honesty, though, (and I say this as a pessimist) I don't think these things are significant enough to worry about. Bradley might scream and pout his way out of town in two years or so, but you have to figure that's all the A's are planning on getting him for anyway, because he'll start getting expensive (and old) after that. Besides, if there's any clubhouse in the league that could make Bradley feel welcome, it's the Oakland clubhouse. Hell, if Bobby Kielty's hair and Ronald McDonald outfit can't loosen you up and make you happy, you may as well just go live in the woods. How exciting is it, by the way, that the A's outfield will probably be playing three legitimate center fielders next year? A's fans have been singing the praises of Mark Kotsay's defense for a while now, Jay Payton filled in very capably when Kotsay's back acted up last year, and Bradley has a career Rate (BP's defensive rate stat, normalized to 100) of 102 out there. Perez is a nice throw-in, by the way, the kind of guy I think Beane could squeeze out of Ned Colletti that he never would have gotten had Paul DePodesta still been in charge. He'll be 26 this year, and over 159 major league games, he's put up a .353 OBP. He hasn't really hit for any power, but it's not like utility infielders ever do. Even in the Dominican League as an 18-year old, Perez has been a guy who'll take his walks and get on base. He's kind of what Marco Scutaro was supposed to be, except Scutaro stopped walking in 2004 and couldn't hit for average in 2005, so he never really added that much with the bat (beyond some memories for some enormous clutch hits). We'll just hope that Perez can provide that little OBP off the bench for the inevitable infield injury the A's will have next year. Meanwhile, does it hurt to lose Ethier? Sure, of course it does. But trading a potential stud, even one as highly regarded as Ethier, for a current stud (and make no mistake, Bradley is a stud) is a move you make every time when you have a little bit of money to burn and a playoff spot to fight for. Especially if the other team is going to make the little "nice OBP of the bench" throw-in.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 20:40 | |

Does anybody else think the Mark Loretta for Doug Mirabelli trade is really lopsided? Loretta had a .360 OBP last year, and while any semblence of power has probably disappeared at this point, a guy with that kind of on-base ability seems like a good guy to have around. On the other hand, he is 34, so maybe the Padres are trading him a year too early rather than a year too late. But still, if you want to trade him, don't you get more than a backup catcher whose offensive skill (solid pop given a low batting average) is probably going to be killed by his home park?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 21:53 | |

I'm afraid to say anything, because I'm certain I'll get shot, but does anyone else think that the 50 Cent / Tony Yayo video for "So Seductive" is a little homoerotic? The "Shorty so seductive" and "making me horny" lines tend to be sung while 50 and Yayo are driving in a car together, all alone in the dark woods of suburban Connecticut.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Music at 10:14 | |

Stealing a line from Lee Sinins, the best free agent of this offseason has decided to resign with his old team. No, not Paul Konerko with the White Sox. Rather, Brian Giles signed a three-year, $30M deal with the Padres, ensuring that the next time he comes up for free agency, he'll be patently undesirable to the A's. That deal is a huge bargain compared to Konerko's. It's two years shorter and $2M/year cheaper despite Giles being a superior hitter, as well as someone who's not stuck at first base. Granted, Giles is older, but even if the contract were a four- or five-year deal, I'd bet on Giles to remain productive for the life of the deal before I'd do so for Konerko. You have to wonder whether the A's could have been competitive with this offer. Does this represent a discount for Giles? How much did he turn down from other teams? $10M/year certainly seems within the reach of the A's, considering how much money they gave Esteban Loaiza. It seems unlikely, though, that Giles would have left San Diego for only a little more than what the Padres were offering. I'd guess it would have taken something closer to Paul Konerko's deal, maybe $12M/year for four years, to get him to leave. Apparently, the Angels, having lost out on Konerko, are stepping up their efforts to get Manny Ramirez. I'm not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand, the Angels are certain to have to pay through the nose for Manny, quite possibly decimating the upper levels of their farm system. On the other hand, Manny's a really good hitter, and the last thing the A's need is another good hitter to face 19 times per year.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 12:05 | |