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Wednesday, April 30. 2008
Coaching carousel
The NBA coaching carousel is looking really interesting right now. Avery Johnson is out in Dallas, Mike D'Antoni could be out in Phoenix, and New York and Chicago are looking for coaches. The Miami Heat job looked like it was going to be open, but Pat Riley has promoted Erik Spoelstra from within to replace him. Larry Brown has already replaced Sam Vincent in Charlotte, and Sam Mitchell might be out in Toronto. Oh, and George Karl is in trouble in Denver as well. Milwaukee's job is also open, for what it's worth, with Kelvin Sampson apparently headed there. Not that anyone cares. Do they still play basketball there?
Do any of these jobs make sense for Avery Johnson? If we want to keep ruining the Suns, as Steve Kerr seems determined to do, I guess Johnson could go there and have Steve Nash just stand around and shoot threes off of kickouts from Shaq. New York would probably be a terrible place for him: this was already a boring team, and Johnson loves the boring, grind-it-out basketball game. Plus, he'd probably murder Eddy Curry by December. The last thing the Bulls need is another taskmaster whose idea of beautiful basketball is 85-79 with three punches landed. Maybe Avery could do a good job in Denver. Imagine if the guys in front of Marcus Camby actually focused a little bit on defense. Imagine if Eduardo Najera wasn't allowed to shoot threes. On the other hand, imagine if the four tremendous offensive players on that team (Iverson, Carmelo, Kleiza, JR Smith) were shackled. So I don't know.
Mike D'Antoni would be awesome in New York, by contrast, not because of the players there, but because at least it'd be fun. Do we want to waste a good coach in such a bad situation? It'll be getting better now that Isiah is out and Donnie Walsh is in, but it's going to take a while with all those long, untradeable contracts on the roster. No, I think the most intriguing place for D'Antoni is Dallas. Wouldn't that be great? It's like the Pistons moving from Larry Brown to Flip Saunders, except way more fun. Kidd would be useful again, Dirk could maximize his end-of-peak value, Josh Howard would be the new Shawn Marion, and Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse would hit hundreds of open jumpers. I'd feel bad for my Knicks friend fans, but I really want to see D'Antoni in Dallas. And you know who'd be crazy enough to pull this off? Mark Cuban.
If D'Antoni's not going to Dallas, I'd like to see him in Chicago. The talent there is versatile, it's not particularly big or slow (except Aaron Gray), there are some good shooters ... in short, it looks like his system could take them from boring and bad to exciting and a contender for a top-four spot in the East. In Denver, he'd just be redundant. He's a better coach than Karl, probably, but when you fire a coach, it seems, you're usually looking for a new style. Karl to D'Antoni isn't a new style.
So who should we want in Phoenix? How about Jeff Van Gundy? He'll be a Steve Kerr kind of guy, with defense and posting up and all kinds of good stuff, but I trust he's smart enough to let Steve Nash do his thing at the same time. I'd miss him on the broadcasts, but that's a minor worry. Or maybe Tom Thibodeau, who's been talked up a lot as Boston's defensive coach this year and is a long-time Van Gundy understudy?
If New York doesn't end up with one of these guys, Donnie Walsh could do worse than make a Rick Carlisle reunion happen.
I wonder what assistant coaches, outside of Thibodeau, might be candidates. Mario Elie of Dallas? How about making Igor Kokoskov (Detroit) the first foreign head coach (that I'm aware of)? Brian Shaw from the Lakers?
(Did you know that Scott Layden is an assistant coach in Utah? How humiliating is that?)
Posted by Jason Wojciechowski
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Tuesday, April 29. 2008
More on gang signs
So Paul Pierce's "menacing gesture" from Game 3 was, in fact, seen by the league, and he got hit with a $25,000 fine for it. Danny Ainge says that Pierce makes this sign all the time, and that it stands for "blood, sweat, and tears", not for any gang activity. Doc Rivers tried to make light of the incident, saying that he'll "be careful when [he's] giving signals to the players" from now on. Rivers apparently also said that he'd interpret the sign as "Ok". That's consistent with holding the sign so that the fingers are vertical, not horizontal, the way Pierce had it (and the chart of gang signs I linked to in the last post).
Some news stories go so far as to say that the entire team has used it as an internal signal this year. It isn't clear what it could possibly mean at that point to Al Horford, though, nor is it really helping Paul Pierce's case that the first word in the three-part signal is "blood". The fact that Pierce does the sign before every game, as Ainge says, isn't exactly inconsistent with it being a gang sign, either.
I'm not sure what the real deal is here. I don't know Paul Pierce. I don't know anyone who knows Paul Pierce. But I'm not sure this thing should just quietly go away until some adequate resolution on exactly what happened is reached.
I just saw David Stern questioned by Cheryl Miller on TNT. He first defused the question with a joke ("What was that we did? Ask Stu!"), then basically refused to answer: a menacing gesture is whatever Stu Jackson determines it is. The reality, according to Stern, is that he doesn't want players walking toward each other's benches and making any gestures. That's all well and good, but there are a million gestures Pierce could have made that likely wouldn't have been labeled "menacing" and likely wouldn't have resulted in such a hefty fine. For instance, what about that most unambiguous of gestures, the middle finger? Is that menacing? Unlikely. So clearly there are some gestures that are menacing and some that are not, but Stern refused to say what the menacing ones were, likely because he didn't want to admit that he and Jackson thought Pierce threw up a gang sign.
Oh, on another note, Brendan Haywood keeps endearing himself to me:
But first, Haywood puckered his face up like a baby and did a mocking imitation of James.
"Oooh, they're trying to hurt me," Haywood said before turning serious. "C'mon man, this is the playoffs. He wears 23 and he wants to be Michael Jordan. I respect that because he's a great player. But look what Mike went through. Mike got fouled way worse than this. You know what I'm saying? Nobody is trying to hurt him. Everybody is trying to play basketball, trying to win, trying to play tough. Leave it alone."
Haywood also said that he can't remember a player ever complaining so much about physical play.
"When I was growing up, I never heard that," Haywood said. "I never heard Magic [Johnson] say that. Or Mike. Or Larry [Bird]."
From here.
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Sunday, April 27. 2008
Al Horford courting trouble
So Al Horford, after hitting a big jumper late in the Hawks-Celtics game last night, threw some words at Paul Pierce, who was on the floor, on his way back on defense. It was straight taunting, no question, and Horford should have been T'd up. Can the NBA impose retroactive T's? Maybe fine him? I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. It really was a textbook case.
However, what came after was the really crazy part: Paul Pierce started walking back up the court toward Horford. He didn't look like he was talking, but right around midcourt, Brian Scalabrine caught up with him and started to pull him back to the Celtics bench (they had called a timeout). Pierce then decided to throw up one of these:
Now, wait just a minute. Was that one of these? In particular, the piru blood sign? (See here for more on the pirus.) There is some speculation on some message boards that this was in fact a blood sign. See also.
So, um, bets on whether Al Horford lives to see his sophomore slump?
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13:36
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Saturday, April 26. 2008
Duchscherer back
The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Duchscherer off DL and back on hill
So Justin Duchscherer is back, starting today against the Mariners, although it's not clear what the corresponding roster move will be. With Lenny DiNardo presumably moving back to the pen, I'd guess Dallas Braden will be sent back down? I can't imagine a need for two lefty longer-relievers. Or maybe DiNardo sticks in the rotation, Braden stays in the pen, and Greg Smith heads down for more seasoning. It's awfully hard to send down a guy with a 2.88 ERA, though, even if he's been a bit hit-lucky.
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Thursday, April 24. 2008
Andrew Brown? Whither Dallas Braden?
It's currently a nine-run lead for the A's. Greg Smith pitched well, but he's done after seven innings. In comes new mopup man Dallas Braden, right? Nope! It's Andrew Brown, who hasn't allowed an earned run yet this year. Maybe Braden will pitch the ninth, but it seems silly to use him in a one-inning role. He's a starter in AAA, so his arm is perfectly well stretched out to throw two innings at a time. Especially when the results don't really matter. Did I mention that it's a nine-run lead? And that Justin Morneau isn't even in the ballgame anymore?
I guess, by the way, the Frank Thomas thing really worked out. Eleven runs in a game that Francisco Liriano started for Minnesota looks pretty good to me. Thomas has walked twice and reached on an error. As for the lineup, I'm not sure I like it so much: Sweeney started at first, gimpy legs and all; and Rajai Davis was the center fielder, with Chris Denorfia in left and Em(a)il Brown in right.
On the other hand, it's a day game following a night game and Liriano is, on paper at least, a tough lefty, so maybe sitting Daric Barton (he's in the game now anyway), Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust (who's struggling and isn't in need of development in any case) isn't such a bad idea. But the lineup definitely warrants keeping an eye on.
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17:56
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Frank Thomas an Athletic
The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: Official Info: A's agree to terms with DH Frank Thomas
I see how it all comes together now. Eric Chavez is transferred to the 60-day to clear a 40-man spot, and Travis Buck is put on the 15-day to clear a 25-man spot. This also explains a little better the Rajai Davis waiver claim, since with Buck out, a new fifth outfielder will be handy. Of course, the Mike Sweeney question still isn't answered. Is he basically a pinch-hitter now? That's fine by me, I guess, since the A's were just taking a flier on him in the first place, although you do hate to see the A's do the dirty on a solid citizen like Sweeney. And what happens to him when Buck comes back? I'd hope that the A's would at that point see the sense in DFAing Rajai Davis, but we'll see, I suppose.
The lineup now is presumably Em(a)il Brown in right, Sweeney in center, Cust in left, Barton at first, Ellis at second, Crosby at short, Hannahan at third (although Donnie Murphy will get more time if Hannahan continues to struggle both with his hitting and with errors), Suzuki behind the plate, and Thomas at DH. The bench, then, is Mike Sweeney, who can pinch-hit for Hannahan and Sweeney; Denorfia, who can pinch-run, play defense for Cust, and spot-start anywhere in the outfield; and Rajai Davis, who can pinch-run and play defense (if he gets any starts, I will throw things). Donnie Murphy and Rob Bowen's roles are obvious.
Chavez is now eligible to come off the DL at the end of May, so you have to wonder whether we'll see him at all this year.
Anyway, this is all pretty exciting, since Thomas will make the pro-rated minimum (i.e. he's basically free) and he'll almost certainly outhit Sweeney. Meanwhile, 1/8 of the way through the season, the A's are +18 in run differential, are tied for the second-best record in the AL, and have allowed the fewest runs in the AL despite no pitchers in the top-20 in baseball in VORP (Dana Eveland is 21st). Seattle and Texas clearly aren't that good, so the A's are putting themselves in a position to make a surprise run if the Angels falter (e.g. John Lackey doesn't come back fully effective, or they keep suffering injuries to players like Lackey and Howie Kendrick, or Garret Anderson gets 650 plate appearances). And of course this is all without mortgaging the future in any way. Thomas isn't blocking anybody, just like Mike Sweeney wasn't.
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Poor Dan Johnson
Rays designate 1B/DH Dan Johnson for assignment - mlb - SI.com
This is just terrible for poor Dan Johnson. Dan Johnson didn't even get into a game with the Rays before they DFA'd him to make room for the newly acquired Gabe Gross (who the Brewers felt the need to trade to make room for Tony Gwynn, Jr., who was coming off the DL). Andrew Friedman referred to this as "an awkward situation", which is an awesome way of putting it. But he basically said that they could carry Johnson, but he wasn't going to be getting playing time anyway, so why bother?
Is there really no one out there who could use a decent backup first baseman? Just looking through the Baseball Prospectus depth charts and team audits, I see a number of teams that might want Johnson's stick, such as it is, off the bench. I guess the real problem is that in this era of short benches, there's no room for a guy who's limited to one position and he's not a defensive-replacement kind of guy at that spot, either. So you'd use him to pinch hit for a middle-infielder or a catcher or you'd play him at first after you pinch-run for your real first baseman. That's really not that valuable when you realize that Johnson's not the kind of high-contact hitter you might want as a PH, nor is he likely to be very good if he gets an extended run due to injury or something: his PECOTA weighted mean is just .258 / .361 / .443.
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11:36
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Lakers win impressively
It's possible that the Nuggets are the best #8 seed in history, and the Lakers made them look silly tonight. (It's also possible that the Mavericks are the best #7 ever, and the Hornets made them look silly last night.) I don't think the Lakers will sweep, but I do think they'll take one of the two games in Denver and then close the series out in Game 5 at home behind a meltdown by one of the three at-times-overly-emotional Nuggets scoring guards (Iverson, Carmelo, JR Smith). L.A. just looked too good tonight. They have too much size, too much shooting ability, too much penetration ability, and they're a marquee team that, this being the NBA, gets the borderline calls when they play at home. Things just don't look good for Denver.
Looking ahead, at the risk of a jinx, I have to say that L.A.'s road doesn't look easy. I'm afraid of every team L.A. might have to play, except for Phoenix (and it's looking very unlikely that they'll have to play them). They'll get Utah in the second round -- with so many weapons, and an unstoppability on their home court, they're fearsome. If they get past Utah, they'll have to deal with either the Hornets, who, after watching their dismantling of a Dallas team that doesn't have a quick guard to put on Chris Paul (check the Lakers roster -- they're not exactly brimming with quickness at the guard spot) really frighten me, or the Spurs. San Antonio's players don't really intimdate me that much, because L.A. has a variety of big bodies to throw at Duncan, and at least some semblence of a defensive presence against Manu Ginobli. (Don't ask me about Tony Parker.) The real reason I'm afraid of San Antonio is because, outside of Utah, they have the only coach in the league who can actually go toe-to-toe with Phil Jackson. Byron Scott, George Karl, AVERY JOHNSON? Flip Saunders? Doc Rivers?
That said, even if the Lakers get to the Finals, they're still faced with Detroit or Boston. (Wait, what? LeBron? Ha! Haha! Please, the man can't get up for a game unless DeShawn Stevenson is insulting him. He has less fun on the court than Kevin Garnett. He hates his teammates more than Kobe. Don't talk to me about LeBron James.) Either of those teams is, I think, perfectly capable of sweeping L.A. (which I think isn't something you could say even about any of the Western teams).
Yes, this is the best basketball season I've ever seen. Nice of you to ask.
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02:11
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Rajai Davis in, Kirk Saarloos out
The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: A's claim outfielder Davis from Giants
So my last post mentioned that Dallas Braden wasn't likely to get many innings given that he was basically the second long-man on the team. But now the A's have claimed Rajai Davis on waivers and DFA'd Kirk Saarloos, so it looks like Braden will actually be the full-time long reliever (whatever that means), and maybe spot starter in case of injury, at least until Justin Duchscherer comes back, allowing Lenny DiNardo to head back into the pen (and presumably sending Braden back into the rotation in Sacramento).
Claiming Davis is a little odd. This gives the A's six outfielders. I guess he'll basically get the time that Chris Denorfia has been getting, as the defensive replacement and pinch-runner, but that opens the question of what Denorfia is for. One pinch-runner / defensive guy for Jack Cust and the other one a pinch-runner for Mike Sweeney? That sounds fine, I suppose, given how many close games the A's are likely to play this year, between their weak offense and their strong pitching. But more importantly, Davis doesn't really have a future, not even in the way that Chris Denorfia might have, so it seems weird to use games and at-bats and appearances on him when those could be going to Denorfia or Ryan Sweeney or whomever.
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Wednesday, April 23. 2008
Dallas Braden replaces Keith Foulke
It turns out that Dallas Braden has been called up to replace Keith Foulke, not Jerry Blevins. At least I got the left-handed part right.
I wouldn't expect Braden to get that much work. It'd be silly to use him as a specialist, since he's a starter in the minors, Kirk Saarloos seems to be the long-man, and Alan Embree, Sandy Casilla, and Andrew Brown basically have the seventh and eighth innings of games they lead locked down. Plus there's still Joey Devine, who's better than Braden. So I guess Braden's the backup mopup guy. Which isn't such a bad thing to be, right? I mean, he's still a big leaguer, and I'm not.
Posted by Jason Wojciechowski
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10:35
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Monday, April 21. 2008
Brendan Haywood's ejection
Look, anyone who knows me knows how I feel about LeBron James. He's a giant baby, a ballhog, utterly full of himself, and likely to have a Dale Murphy-style decline starting in about six years when his body gives out and his basketball skills have atrophied from overreliance on his physical tools. This bile on my part likely colors my views of anything LeBron-related. Still, I have to comment on the Brendan Haywood flagrant two in Game 2 tonight.
First, respek to Reggie Miller for calling it like it is when he wondered whether that would have been the same call if the foulee had been Delonte West instead of LeBron James. There was great video of Mike Brown, right on top of the play, screaming, "That's bullshit!" about the Haywood push. And Brown's right, it was bullshit. It's not part of the game to give a guy a push in the ribs while he's in the air. But you know what? Miller's right, too. You have to seriously question whether it's an ejection if that's someone else getting pushed. I'm not questioning whether this was a flagrant or just a normal foul. It was clearly a flagrant. The question is the distinction between a one and a two.
Remember the other flagrant foul, earlier in the game? Anderson Varejao took a full windup swat right through Andray Blatche's head. What's the call? Flagrant one. What's more likely to actually cause someone an injury? A hit to the head or a push while a guy's in the air? Guys get knocked out of the air all the time, don't they? It usually happens through body blows while a guy is going for the ball, but the point remains: people go to the ground, and people go to the ground hard, and people fly into the cameras all game, every game. But getting hit in the head? That's concussions, lost teeth, or T.J. Ford-style crazy nerve injuries. So why was Varejao a flagrant one, uncontroversially, and Haywood a two? I just don't see the difference.
This leads to a larger issue. A major problem with the way games are refereed is that the refs pay too much attention to outputs instead of inputs. Haywood's foul looked bad, but a big part of the reason why is because of LeBron's athleticism: James gets so high in the air and with such momentum that when he gets knocked off, he goes sprawling. It also looks worse to get knocked into the cameras than it does to just get knocked down in the middle of the floor, even if you fall the same way. I think the referees responded to that, and it's not uncommon. It's the same problem as Shaquille O'Neal has complained about for years: he gets hit harder than anyone else in the game, but the referees miss calls because he's just powering right through the hits.
I want to add that I'm not one of these people who wants to go back to the clutching, grabbing, punching, scratching days of yore in basketball. I don't lament the toning down of the not-really-basketball physical aspects. But I do want some measure of consistency in refereeing. I want LeBron to get hit with a taunting technical when he does DeShawn Stevenson's "hand on the face" move to DeShawn Stevenson (Stevenson's version of the gesture isn't directed at anyone). I want Zydrunas Ilgauskas to get hit with a technical when he comes running into a scrum from ten feet away, because you gave Antawn Jamison a tech for doing exactly that on the other side. Is this really so much to ask?
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21:49
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Keith Foulke -- pain in the neck
Keith Foulke has landed on the DL with a stiff neck, but the A's haven't made another move yet to replace him. The A's are at eleven pitchers already, so it's not clear that Foulke's replacement needs to be a pitcher. Still, I'd guess the replacement will be 6'6" lefty Jerry Blevins, who pitched for the A's last year and is currently in Sacramento. He'd probably only be up until Justin Duchscherer is ready to come off the DL, but that should give Bob Geren a chance or two to throw him into some games and see what happens.
Can I just mention, by the way, that the A's are 12-8, tied with the Angels for first in the West and a game behind Boston for the best record in the AL? Awesome.
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09:58
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Sunday, April 20. 2008
Frank Thomas gone -- where to now?
Frank Thomas has actually been released by the Blue Jays after he complained about getting his playing time cut. He apparently thought the benching was motivated by his $10 million plate-appearances based vesting option. It's hard to say, of course, given the lack of insight into the front office machinations, but one does have to wonder: Thomas is a historically great hitter who's had a poor 72 plate appearances this year. He wasn't going to hit like this all year, and Matt Stairs certainly won't outhit him, as much as I love Wonder Hamster.
It's really too bad to see J.P. Ricciardi falling apart like this. I thought Billy Beane had a chance to be baseball's Bill Walsh, but given Ricciardi's inability to put together a winning team and L.A.'s inability to accept that Paul DePodesta provided the Dodgers their best chance at winning, it looks like that won't be happening anytime soon.
Here's Ricciardi on the decision: "I don't know that we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for somebody to kick in because we can't let this league or this division get away from us." This is disingenuous enough to make me wonder whether Thomas's allegations about his vesting option might contain some truth. The division isn't going to "get away from" them. It's gotten away. There are at least two teams better than the Jays in the division (New York, Boston), and one more that might be better (Tampa). And that "two to three months" comment is almost certainly an exaggeration.
In any case, the question becomes "whither Frank Thomas?" Who needs a DH? Let's trip through the standings. Boston's got Papi. The Angels have enough trouble getting all their outfielders at bats without having to worry about permanently clogging up their DH spot. (Note that this isn't a good reason for Anaheim not to do this -- Thomas is a better hitter than Garrett Anderson, Gary Matthews, and Torii Hunter -- but it is a reason why it won't happen.) Baltimore? If you're willing to send down Luis Hernandez until Brian Roberts gets traded and shunt Aubrey Huff and Kevin Millar into permanent bench roles, this would work. But what would Frank Thomas want with a team that might lose 100 games? A repeat engagement with Oakland? Between Mike Sweeney and Jack Cust, the A's are full up at DH, and it's not like they need a guy like Thomas to put them over the top in the division. They're not winning it. (That said, if Thomas is still hanging around out there later in the year and Sweeney or Cust hasn't picked it up, and the A's are interested in making a push at the division, this would be intriguing. But I don't anticipate Thomas still being available in two months.) Kansas City? Now that's interesting! Push Ross Gload to the bench and Mark Teahen or Billy Butler to first and install Thomas at DH? Boy, that's one hell of an offense. Combine that with a suddenly dangerous rotation and a shutdown closer and you've got a really fun team in a tough division. I'd root for them.
The Yankees? They're in the same situation as the Angels, but worse, given that their extra outfielders aren't valuable defenders the way the Angels' are. Plus they've got Giambi's cranky glove and Jorge Posada's aches and pains to deal with. No, I don't really see it, as much as it might help them. Seattle? Goodness what an update Thomas would be over Jose Vidro. They'd have to be willing to tell Vidro to take up a permanent spot on the bench, which won't make him so happy, but the on-field results ought to be enormous. It's a crime that Jose Vidro is an every-day DH in this league. Tampa? Hell, they just claimed Dan Johnson, so they're obviously ok with an immobile slugger type hanging around. But Johnson's different, of course, because he didn't just get released for complaining about a lack of playing time. If you sign Thomas, you've got to start him. I guess what happens is that Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes become the right field platoon, which isn't such a horrible situation. Minnesota's got plenty of room for him in the lineup (Craig Monroe?), but they're not really in a mode where they need to win today, so I'm not sure there's a lot of call for blowing a load of cash on Thomas. Cleveland's got Pronk, so they're out. If Texas wants to push Frank Catalanotto and David Murphy into part-time roles and install Thomas full-time as the DH, there's room for an upgrade there. Plus the West is wide open, so with a Big Hurt, a little luck, and an additional pitcher, they could be dangerous. Finally, Detroit? They've already got Gary Sheffield. Could they push him to left to knock Jacque Jones out of the lineup? I don't know if Sheffield is a DH by choice or necessity at this point, so it's hard to say. It might not be a bad idea, though.
So what'd we come up with? Kansas City, Seattle, Tampa, and Texas? I'd really enjoy seeing Frank Thomas with the Royals or Rays, although that might just be my hopes than an AL West rival doesn't vastly improve its offense in one fell swoop a week from now.
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Friday, April 18. 2008
Dan Johnson officially gone
So 10 days later, there wasn't enough interest in Dan Johnson to actually get anything for him in a trade, so the A's waived him, and Tampa Bay has claimed him. I guess the theory is that Johnson is better than Nathan Haynes or Justin Ruggiano.
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14:39
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