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As a "just 'cause", here's my assessment of the eight teams that made it to the second round of the NBA playoffs.

Cleveland is better than people think. Some people got overexcited about the big trade they made, and then people kind of went into backlash, and now I think they're underrated. We've seen how they're playing Boston, who are supposed to be a very good team (more on them later). Cleveland has four quality bigs, which not everyone can say. Ilgauskas can score, rebound, and block shots, and he knows how to use his body in the defensive post, although he doesn't move his feet well anymore. Varejao is a tremendous defender who moves his feet really well, allowing him to stay in front of almost anybody: he's really been hanging with Kevin Garnett, and he can even block the occasional shot as a help defender. Varejao is also a surprisingly good shooter with decent touch around the rim. Joe Smith is a savvy defender who gets out well on screens and can hit the little short-mid jumper. And there's Ben Wallace, who's seriously declined, because he's lost a lot of his athleticism, but he can still get a rebound for you. They've got three lights-out shooters, with Wally, Pavlovic, and Boobie Gibson. They've got LeBron, the second-best player in the universe. What are they missing? A point guard. Delonte West isn't cutting it, and Boobie Gibson reminds me a lot of Jannero Pargo, a guy who's so small that he's miscast as a point. Or like Eddie House. Eventually people always realize that these guys aren't point guards and just let them stand around and shoot. The other thing this team doesn't have is a second all-around player. LeBron does it all, of course, and even his defense has improved as he's learned to harness his strength and quickness on the defensive end. But who else is there? Everyone else is a role player: they are often excellent at that role (in particular the shooters), but none of them are really threats to do anything else. When's the last time Boobie Gibson took anyone off the dribble? Ilgauskas used to be nearly that second banana, but he's not that guy anymore, I think starting this year. The team is also surprisingly old. The problem with building a team the way they have, or the way Boston has, is that your window is tiny. With Cleveland, though, this is appropriate, because they've only got LeBron until June of 2010.

Boston is built the same way as Cleveland, except they have three #2 guys, no #1, and then a bunch of role players. I haven't yet decided which team construction I like better. Also, Mike Brown gets derided for his coaching, but Doc Rivers really doesn't seem very good. His substitutions often seem bizarre, and he's hung with Sam Cassell long after it's become obvious that he's any good. Eddie House, a good shooter, has been buried. So those are bad. But there's also plenty of good. Garnett is a tremendous defender and a good offensive player, though he's complementary on that end, not a #1 guy. Allen is still a great shooter, and can get his shot with a guy on him, with a hand in his face, whatever. He'll still take people off the dribble as a change-up, but it's not that effective anymore. He's not quite Wally yet, though. Finally, Pierce can get his own shot, but he's the only guy who can do so. He also isn't an at-will scorer the way LeBron or Kobe or Iverson are. He's in the next group. People have been asking all year, "Who takes the last shot?", but they've been asking it the wrong way. The question isn't, "Which of the three stars takes the shot?", it's "Who can actually get a shot at the end?" I'm not sure anyone can. You guard Garnett, guard Allen, keep an eye on Rondo, and double Pierce with Powe's or Perkins's or whoever's man. Anyway, Boston's role players are similar to Cleveland's, except that they don't have any shooters. Or at least none that play (again, Eddie House). Sam Cassell is a backup point who isn't worth playing. Kendrick Perkins and Leon Powe are nice energy guys, guys who can focus on their defense and rebounding and be valuable that way, though they aren't necessarily outstanding at those jobs. James Posey is a nice piece, a pretty good shooter and defender who isn't truly dangerous at either job. Rondo is a very nice defender who can shoot a little and run the offense without going nuts. It's the defense that makes this team, and in that sense the roster is a good fit for Doc Rivers, because there's little offensive talent here. They're good, but they went to seven against Atlanta, a clearly inferior team, they're not blowing out Cleveland, and Detroit is probably better. People will think of them as a disappointment after their tremendous regular season, but the reality is probably that they overachieved before the playoffs, and then played down to their true level in the playoffs. Oh, hey, Big Baby is also pretty useful.

Detroit is tremendous. They lose Chauncey Billups and don't even miss a beat because Rodney Stuckey, while he's still learning, is pretty damn good. Jason Maxiell is one of those annoying "angry" players, but he's good at what he does, which is run around and knock balls around and grab rebounds. Chauncey, if he's healthy, isn't Mr. Big Shot, but he's still a very good big point who knows how to use his size on both ends of the floor. Rasheed Wallace is always dangerous, even if he settles too much. Antonio McDyess will hit that little pop shot and play good D and rebound. A quality big, in other words. Rip Hamilton is still Rip Hamilton, although he looks like he may have lost a step. He also plays excellent annoying D if the refs are letting him get away with it, which is something that can easily be forgotten given the other excellent defensive players on the team, as well as his own excellent offense. But Tayshaun Prince is, in some ways, what makes this team go. Incredible defensive player with quick feet and Kirilenko-style freakish arms. He never gives up on plays, which is why he has more "blocked layup from behind" highlights than anyone in the history of the league. He's turned into a good jump shooter, even if it's unorthodox, and he can get to the bucket and use his length to put the ball up, or pass the ball on the interior or kick it out. He's the best player on the team, and he's showing exactly why I was really hoping the Lakers could get him in the draft years ago. Detroit, in short, is dangerous, and it looks like they might have the pieces to keep being dangerous for years to come, with Tayshaun at the core.

Orlando is a fantasy roster team. They've got good players, but where's the defense? Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, Keith Bogans, Carlos Arroyo -- they're all accomplished or useful offensive players, but none of them really plays plus defense. There are only so many problems that Dwight Howard's athleticism can patch over, especially as his offensive game continues to improve and he's using more and more energy on that end of the floor. It's a nice core of talent, but they have to build around it with players that fit (a defensive-minded power forward, allowing you to move Turkoglu or Lewis to the 2-guard spot) to rise to the elite teams in the East. They're not at the level of the top three, but they're a lot closer than Atlanta, for instance. (Mike Bibby? Done!)

In the West, let's start with New Orleans. I haven't figured out how David West gets his numbers every night, but he does it. You watch and you watch, and he just doesn't jump out at you. Then you start to realize that he shoots that mid-range jumper at a tremendous percentage, and that he can also put the ball on the floor and get to the hole if you close out on him too hard or try to play up in his face. He has the strength to grab rebounds and finish at the hole, even if he looks a little short. Perhaps most importantly, he's a mean bastard who doesn't back down. This makes me dislike him, but it also means he's got the juices going the entire game. Chris Paul is really good. You can exploit him on defense, but there aren't so many guards on good teams with the size to bother him: Deron Williams and Chauncey Billups are all that come to mind. Tyson Chandler will always be linked with the great Ben Wallace mistake; but he's a very good player in his own right. He can't score, but he can finish a lob as well as anyone, and he's a very good rebounder and help defender. He gets a little out of control with his emotions at times, as much of this team does, but it also feeds them at times. Peja is still a lights-out shooter, and with his size, he can surprise you by getting to the rack at times. Julian Wright is a great energy guy off the bench, Jannero Pargo is wicked fast, even if he doesn't bring much else to the game. Melvin Ely is ... well, he's big. Really, this sentence shows New Orleans' weakness: no bench. If Chandler gets in foul trouble, there are no bigs to back him up worth mentioning. There's no real scoring off the bench, unless you count Bonzi Wells, which I don't. There's no real backup point. If you can get any of their main players in foul trouble, they're screwed.

San Antonio just keeps coming back. They haven't reloaded in forever, unlike Detroit, but Tim Duncan + Manu Ginobli keeps equalling winning, at least for this year, and maybe one more after that. Tony Parker is good at what he does, which is be quick and shoot his floater, Tim Duncan is probably the third-best player in the game, and Manu Ginobli is a ridiculously good offensive player. Yes, they're a team of floppers, with Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Horry, Oberto, and Bowen falling down at a moment's notice. But until the rules change and they start red-carding these guys, it'll keep working. Bowen, I want to note, has really slipped. He's not nearly as quick as he used to be, so he gets beat off the dribble with regularity. Popovich has tried him on Chris Paul a few times, but he just can't handle that assignment the way he used to, which means he's stuck guarding two-guards and small forwards, which is a less useful skill than being able to swap over to shut down a point guard from time to time. With Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the conference, that'd be an important skill. The front-court defense, though, with Oberto, Duncan, Horry, and Kurt Thomas, is top-notch, if ancient. It's the kind of defense that can guard the Shaqs and Dwight Howards and Pau Gasols of the world, though, not the David Wests, Carlos Boozers, and Mehmet Okurs. So you've got front-court defense, you've got backcourt scoring, you've got some shooting (Michael Finley, Brent Barry, Manu), you've got a coach who knows what the hell he's doing, ... no wonder this is a good team.

Finally, Utah is an odd team. Carlos Boozer is overrated, because he's either all-in with unstoppable mid-range jumpers and some inside moves, with rebounding to boot, or else he's disappeared completely from the flow of the game. Mehmet Okur is great if his shot is on, because that opens up his dribble-drive game and seems to energize him to rebound and play a little defense. But if his shot is off, forget about it. Granted, his shot is probably on two games out of three. Deron Williams is obviously tremendous, although he has a tendency to fall in love with his quick three point shot, and it's not clear that he plays defense on anyone but Chris Paul. Ronnie Brewer is energy, but it'd be more useful if he were actually a shutdown defender instead of just masquerading as one. Kirilenko's prime as an awesome force of defense who can hurt you with the shot, the drive, and the ridiculous court vision has been wasted. Really, it's the most tragic thing since Reggie Lewis died. Have you seen the passes he makes? He knows where the offense is going, and he's got the size and armspan to implement it. And his help defense, flying out of everywhere to block anybody's shot he wants. And Kyle Korver has added a seriously dangerous dimension to the team while playing the kind of obnoxious defense that Manu Ginobli and Sasha Vujacic specialize in, except with the kind of size and length that Ginboli can only dream about. Paul Millsap may have reached the overrated category by virtue of everyone talking about how overlooked he is: he's basically a decent rebounder who can dunk. If he adds a midrange jumper, watch out, because then he's basically Antonio McDyess. And somehow Matt Harpring is still hanging around, bitching his way into fouls and hitting the occasional jumper. Isn't he just a Jerry Sloan assistant coach in the making? It's like Greg Paulos or Steve Wojciechowski at Duke. You just know Coach K is grooming these guys.

I won't talk about the Lakers. I'll just gush for hundreds of words and then bitch for hundreds more. I've done it before and I'll do it again. I don't need to do it here.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 23:32 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Dude, LeBron's mom is awesome.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 23:49 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

It turns out that Chris Denorfia is, in fact, hurt, and that he is the move the A's made to get Rich Harden on the roster -- he heads to the DL. The A's are thus down to four outfielders, and one of those is Jack Cust, who Geren likes to sub for late in the game. This means, though, that when Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, and Cust are all in the game, Geren's going to have to pick his spots carefully regarding pinch-running. He can't just wholesale with Denorfia and Rajai Davis like he did before.

Nice to see the A's bring the bats back to life, by the way. They kind of took a week off, but 12 runs, even if against Sidney Ponson and the Rangers, is nice.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 00:08 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

I am sick to goddamn death of the referees in the NBA. Yes, I'm emotional about the fact that the Lakers got robbed of this game, that they got called for six more fouls (20 more Utah free throws) despite playing their entire offensive game at the Utah rim. The referees didn't entirely lose the game for L.A. (eleven missed free throws, Kobe's back, and the disappearing Jordan Farmar did that), but they sure as hell helped. Let's review the bad calls on both sides this game.

DJ Mbenga's completely clean block in the third quarter that was called a foul. This one wasn't even close, there was no body contact, no arm contact, nothing. It was utterly inexplicable. The Kyle Korver phantom elbow on Sasha in overtime -- Sasha sold it, but there was zero contact on the play. The overtime play where Fisher put his shoulder sideways into Deron Williams's chest, and yet Williams got hit with a foul. (I'm more ok with that call as a "quit flopping" foul on Williams, because it wasn't an offensive foul -- but it should have just been a no-call.) The most egregious one of all, Ronny's "flagrant 2." What on earth did the refs see? There was body contact and a swipe across the arms. Ronny's a big guy, so Price took a hard fall to the floor that looked worse than it was because he bounced his head. There was no head contact by Ronny, he was going for the block so it wasn't unnecessary, and it certainly wasn't excessive. Where on earth do they get calling any flagrant, much less a flagrant 2? I demand an apology to Ronny, to the team, to Lakers fans, and to NBA fans everywhere for this atrocious call. The referees were intimidated by the Utah crowd and the Utah players, especially Matt Harpring, who swarmed them, demanding a call. Rule change request: that's a technical foul. Players don't get to ask for flagrants, and they certainly don't get to run up on the refs like that.

Oh, and how about Ronnie Price's "block" of Luke Walton's breakaway. He got the ball cleanly, in terms of not getting arm, but his body just flew right through Walton's. That's the definition of a foul. He knocked Walton to the floor by flying into him. How do you not call that? Oh, and the Kyle Korver travel in the fourth quarter when he switched his pivot foot out on the wing, Phil Jackson flew up off the bench (the play was right in front of him), but no call. Carlos Boozer's shove (not tiny push, not subtle; Carlos Boozer doesn't do subtle; he gets away with full-on pushes and shoves the entire game) on Derek Fisher on a screen late in the game.

This was just atrocious, and it's nothing new. Half the flagrants this postseason (and I've seen almost every playoff game so far) weren't flagrants in February. Double technicals are handed out like candy instead of the referees actually making an effort to determine if one player doesn't really deserve one. Blatant travels are missed (and not just the hop-step style, or the LeBron to the bucket style, but switched pivot feet). Offensive fouls abound when guys are running in under the driver after he's already started off the ground. And the clock! Forget about the atrocious rule that resulted in an unjustified three for the Pistons the other night. What about the numerous clock problems and technical malfunctions? We're in the 21st century! This stuff doesn't happen anymore!

One last word on the Jazz -- I said it after Friday's game, and I say it now. They hit their jumpers, they got the benefit of every doubt from the referees, they got L.A.'s backup center and hit man tossed, Kobe was visibly weakened (the Kirilenko block from behind in overtime doesn't happen if Kobe's 100% because he stuffs that ball instead of trying to lay it up), Fisher got hit with early fouls again ... and it still took overtime to win the game! It still took the Lakers forgetting team offense and going to a guy playing at 60% on every possession in overtime for the Jazz to pull it out!

A word on Pau: he does complain too much, but at this point, the refereeing on him is getting downright bizarre. He's a skilled post player who spends the entire game in the paint. He took sixteen shots and grabbed ten rebounds. And he only shot two foul shots! He shot zero on Friday! What is the deal? Okur, who spends the entire game 20 feet from the basket, shot six. Kirilenko shot nine. Kobe took 33 shots, with at least half of those coming in the lane, maybe more, and he shot only ten. How on earth does Andrei Kirilenko shoot as many free throws as Kobe, when Kirilenko is the one who plays on the team that fouls more than anyone in the league? How does this happen?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 21:21 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

With Mike D'Antoni now in New York, is it automatic that LeBron is going there in 2010? James could average 50-10-12 in that system -- and given that he plays his best defense as a help guy coming over to make ridiculously athletic blocks and steals, the up-tempo game might help his defense as well.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 10:48 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

I hope the Jazz fans are really excited about this win, because it took ridiculous games from their three stars, terrible shooting and ball-handling by the Lakers, two early fouls on Derek Fisher, and a real adjustment in the first half by the officials, from calling everything in the first two games to calling nothing (before returning to the call-everything mode in the second half). All of this to win by five, and even then only because a horrible play on the final jump ball where Luke Walton just threw the ball away after getting exactly the tip L.A. wanted from Pau Gasol.

The Lakers deserved to lose this game, and the Jazz earned their win, for all of the above reasons. But you know what? When you only lose by five, despite doing everything wrong while the other team does everything right, you're the better team. The only question is whether the Lakers can regroup on Sunday, stop fumbling the ball away every other possession, and stop missing layups when you're not bailed out by the officials.

Really just a frustrating, frustrating game. Did Okur or Boozer miss a single contested jump shot? (Obviously they did, but it sure didn't feel like it. Every time you looked up, they were hitting a 20-footer with Lamar Odom's hand in their face.)

So what's the prescription for Sunday? Kobe: don't go 0-6 from three. Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar: don't combine for 0-9 shooting. Referees: Pau Gasol works all game inside against a team that fouls more than anyone in the league; he seriously didn't shoot a single free throw in this game? Really? Pau: turnovers! Lamar: turnovers! Phil: don't be scared of Derek Fisher's two fouls; Jordan Farmar is a good player, but he's overmatched in this series because that position needs to guard Deron Williams, and Farmar can't do that. Fisher started with two fouls, and then, at the end of the game, you know how many fouls he had? Still two. It's not like Fisher stopped Williams, but he certainly did better on him than Farmar did. So in short, Phil, Fisher can play with fouls. If the offense is churning out the points, then you can sit Fisher, because the Jazz can't run with the Lakers. But if the offense is sputtering like it was in the first half tonight, Fisher has to be in the game.

One final note: the Lakers only lost one quarter tonight. The problem is they lost that quarter, the second, by nine, while they only won the second half by four, and tied the first quarter. They got seriously outplayed over those 12 minutes, and could only play more or less even with the Jazz for the other 36. That's on the bench mob, since they were playing that quarter, and Phil played the starters (more or less) the rest of the way, once he figured out that his reserves couldn't play the game tonight.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 23:49 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Ariza still not healed; seeing specialist today | The Lakers Nation

What on earth is up with these Laker injuries?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 18:18 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Why, when we hear about a survey in which a foreigner is voted "most popular person" in their home country, do we respond with a surprised, "More popular than their president!"? I can name approximately 100 million Americans who are more popular than our President. Why would we expect other countries to be different?

(Prompted by hearing on ESPN: "Manu Ginobli was recently voted the most popular person in Argentina, more than the president!")

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 23:05 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Jeff Van Gundy is a freaking genius. Here are his three proposals for flopping:

1. If the referee thinks it's an exaggeration of the contact, even if he thinks it's also a foul, call no foul;
2. Review of every game tape to determine how often flops happen: points assigned for flopping; upon a certain number of points accumulated through the season, suspension;
3. If you're suspended, you also have to wear a scarlet F on your jersey so the referees know who the floppers are.

JVG referred to this last proposal as "a little off the wall", and then Mike Breen teased him about it, but you know what? Nobody likes this flopping stuff. Nobody likes that a 6'9", 260 pound beast named LeBron James gets a little contact from Rajon Rondo and throws his arms around like a Mack truck hit him. It's not just LeBron of course; he's just (a) my favorite topic; (b) the guy who prompted the Van Gundy rant. But the problem precisely is that everyone does it, with a few exceptions: Kevin Garnett doesn't really do it; Shaq's another one. But name another star, or role player, or 12th man, and they'll fall to the floor acting like they got shot at the least contact.

Along the same lines, the referees have to continue to get more careful about the offensive players initiating the contact -- if the defender has his arms up and you jump into them, no foul! If you draw the defender into the air and then jump into his body (a Kobe special, I'll admit), no foul! The referees were supposedly emphasizing this recently, but from watching the last few weeks, it seems like they've gone back to the bad old Reggie Miller days at times.

Oh, and I hate the "if you hit a guy after he's released his shot, it's a shooting foul" rule. If you run into the guy as you're closing out on his jump shot, that should be a loose-ball foul if the shot doesn't go in and an and-one if it does. None of this shooting foul nonsense.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 19:39 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

The Transaction Guy | MVN - Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » Pitch F/X Profile: Greg Smith

Here's a great piece by Dave Golebiewski at The Transaction Guy. Smith's pitches, in short, have great movement despite not much velocity, and, as David Pinto points out (and as I think is most important given the variety Smith throws), his release point is incredibly consistent.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:46 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Good Problems to Have - Part I - Athletics Nation

Here's an interesting piece from notsellingjeans at Athletics Nation about how the A's are unlikely to be sellers in trades because of their hot start -- they'd have to tank enormously to put their record in a position where they could justify selling pieces like Blanton, Mark Ellis, or Justin Duchscherer.

I'm not sure I entirely agree because, supposing the A's do play, say, .460 ball from here on out, and supposing further that the Angels start running away with the West, I think Billy Beane is smart enought to put questions about "waving a white flag" to the side in favor of actually maximizing the talent on the roster for the contention years.

Obviously this is all moot if the A's keep playing well enough to contend.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:42 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Bynum may undergo surgery on left knee | The Lakers Nation

That's just terrible news. I mean, maybe not because we're talking about a 'scope, but really? We still haven't figured out what's wrong in there? He hurt it in January! What's going on?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 11:37 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

Donnie Murphy pinch-ran for Frank Thomas today and then played left field. Is Chris Denorfia hurt?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 19:54 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

SFGate: Oakland Athletics : The Drumbeat : Gaudin to bullpen

Athletic Supporters | MVN - an Oakland Athletics blog » Blog Archive » Gaudin To The Bullpen … For Now

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Gaudin to 'pen to make room for Harden

I saw this from Susan Slusser first: Chad Gaudin is heading out to the bullpen to make room for Rich Harden.  Mychael Urban reports that Gaudin's (a) not happy about this; and (b) worried about what it might do to his health, coming back from surgeries as he is.  I understand the frustration of a guy with an ERA below 2.50 over his last four starts being sent to the bullpen.  But what are you going to do?  Joe Blanton's not going anywhere, you can't bounce Justin Duchscherer around, Greg Smith has been even better than Gaudin, and Dana Eveland ... well, it's not clear to me why Eveland is staying a starter while Gaudin is heading to the 'pen.  It's almost a coin-flip situation, although maybe there's a talent-evaluation component here: the A's pretty much know what they have in Gaudin at this point, but Eveland is still an unknown.  Is this just a hot start?  Are his runs-allowed numbers sustainable given his peripherals?

Melissa Lockard points out that putting Eveland in the bullpen might hamper his confidence -- he's been beat up pretty good the last few times he's made the majors, so to send him out to the sidelines now that he's having success as a starter might impede him mentally.  Lockard also asks why the A's don't move Harden to the bullpen, and her answer is sensible: there's a good chance they're looking to get what they can for him in a trade, and you don't build up a starting pitcher's value by throwing him out of the bullpen.

But you know, remember Jason Isringhausen?  Failed, injury-plagued starter turned dominant reliever after a trade to a new team?  Nobody wants this to happen to Harden, where the A's insist on keeping him in the rotation before they finally just give up on him only to see him have a few great years for someone else in a role that fits him when the A's could just as easily put him in that role themselves.

Keith Foulke is also due back in a few days, and Dallas Braden is likely to get the ax when that happens, heading back to Sacramento.  He somehow avoided the chopping block last time, being kept around over Lenny DiNardo, but I wouldn't expect it to happen again, not with the way Joey Devine has been pitching.  Unfortunately, when Harden needs to be added to the roster, I'm afraid the A's might go back to a seven-man bullpen and send out Chris Denorfia or something.  Here's hoping the A's do the right thing, pat Devine on the butt and say, "Look kid, good job, but we want a six-man bullpen, you're the odd man out, and you're also the guy who'll be up in probably two weeks because of the inevitable injury (Street, Harden, Duchscherer, Gaudin, a random reliever owie) or trade (Blanton, Harden).  So keep it up!"

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's</