Beaneball

Tonight's lineup for the Phillies has Jimmy Rollins hitting third. Baseball-Reference tells me that this is the first time Rollins has hit there this year, and the first time he's hit anywhere but first. The Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings tells me that Rollins batting third is a terrible idea. In its list of best lineups, Rollins hits sixth, seventh, or eighth. This makes tons of sense. You know why? Because Jimmy Rollins has a .340 on-base percentage. The only guy with a lower on-base percentage in this lineup (by my estimations using their career numbers combined with this year's numbers to try to eliminate huge flukes like Ryan Howard's bad season thus far) is Pedro Feliz. And it's not like Rollins is making up for it in power, either. He had a .531 SLG last year, but is down to .447 this year, and has a .442 career mark. Even giving him credit for a .460 true SLG, a generous estimate, he should not be hitting in the top half of the lineup, and he most certainly should not be hitting in the lineup's premier spot.

Now, as is usually the case, the manager's actual lineup is far closer to the best-case scenario than the worst case, and the difference between the real lineup and the best one (which would have Pat Burrell's .400 OBP hitting first) is about one run every 25 games, or a little over six runs for the season. It isn't, then, that big a deal. But it's still silly to have one of your lower-half hitters batting third, in the spot that should be occupied by Burrell or Ryan Howard, or even Chris Coste, who's managed near-900 OPS's in two of his three years in the big leagues (of course, his 2008 numbers are subject to decline in the second half of this season; he's also 35, so there's no reason to figure he'll keep getting better or anything).

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 22:21 | |

Watching today's Germany-Turkey match on Tivo, I see that Baron Davis will not opt out of his contract with the Warriors, but also that Joe Dumars wants to acquire him by trading Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups. Does that deal make any sense for Detroit? The move would presumably elevate Jason Maxiell to the starting lineup, which would result in a very small frontline. You don't absolutely need size to win, but it helps, and the Pistons would have basically none unless other moves were made in conjunction. Also, Maxiell is an energetic guy, but he brings nowhere near the level of skill that Rasheed does. Further, while Baron obviously upgrades the offense, he comes at a steep price: frontline defense because of the loss of Wallace; frontline scoring because of same; backcourt defense because Billups is vastly better on that end than Davis; and you're guaranteeing yourself that Rodney Stuckey will be your starting point fifteen or twenty times during the year because Davis is bound to get hurt. Isn't all of that a lot to trade for an offensive upgrade? Especially when combining improvements of Aaron Afflalo, Maxiell, Stuckey, and, especially, Tayshaun Prince might get you that same offense but without the cost? Does this really get the Pistons past the Celtics or the Cavs or Magic?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Basketball at 18:55 | |

Here's a very interesting story about the A's chasing a hot Dominican prospect named Michel Inoa. He's apparently going to get a bonus in the $4 million range, which will break international signing records. This is what makes it odd that the A's are apparently winning the battle for his services: their franchise record for such a signing is $350,000, for outfielder Robin Rosario. The Yankees are apparently also interested, which would seem to indicate, "Ok, the Yankees are going to sign him," but the A's are actually outbidding them as it currently stands. I have no idea what this means going forward -- is there something about this kid that makes him so special that the A's are willing to break their old signing bonus record ten-fold? He apparently throws in the '90's with a good curve and change, and he's 6'7", 205 pounds (so he should fill out a bit more), but aren't there lots of physically talented 16-year-olds out there?

Happily, Enrique Rojas reports that Inoa is not interested in a major league deal. I guess he's smart enough to realize that the Wily Mo Pena path is not for him: a fat up-front contract does you no good if you don't get the development time you need.

Robin Rosario, by the way, is currently playing on one of the two Oakland Dominican Summer League teams. He's hitting 182/250/318, but in just 24 plate appearances so far.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 12:01 | |