Beaneball

That's right, Sasha Vujacic is back. This is good news, even if you can't really be happy with the Lakers having to pay $5 million a year for Vujacic's services. The Press-Enterprise says that the deal is a compromise between a 3-year, $12 million offer from the Lakers and a 4-year $24 million request from the Lakers.

Reed at Forum Blue and Gold posted on Sasha earlier today, before this news came out, and he made some interesting points. First, guys like Daniel Gibson, Jason Kapono, and Mickael Pietrus have been getting 4- and 5-year deals despite lower PER's than Sasha's. Second, and this may be a bit of a surprise, the single most efficient offensive unit in basketball last year was Farmar + Sasha + Kobe + Lamar + Pau. Not only did that unit score 1.37 points per possession, but it only allowed .99. That means that every five Laker possessions with that squad on the floor was resulting in a four-point lead. That's preposterous. So you can see why it was important for the Lakers to resign Vujacic.

On the flip side, as Reed also points out, Jerry Buss has a limited budget. Basically, the signing of Vujacic means the end of spending for the Lakers. With eleven guys under contract, and Coby Karl presumably being #12, the Lakers still have one or two (probably two) spots to fill. L.A. is probably still short a big man, given that Chris Mihm, while professing his health, has too long an injury history to be fully trusted. But that big man and the 14th spot will have to be filled by spending the veteran's minimum, most likely, which probably means DJ Mbenga or maybe someone like Randolph Morris, but probably not Carl Landry, Adonal Foyle, or Francisco Elson. Maybe this bodes well for Joe Crawford, though, who might now make the team while spending the year in the D-League and inactive on the L.A. roster.

And what about Sun Yue? If Mitch Kupchak wants to bring him over, will Buss let him given the state of the payroll? Presumably Yue isn't coming for Karl-type money, especially when it's Karl-type money to play in the D-League.

So I've updated the free agent watch list below, but I've added a new marker -- I've put italics around any players I think are probably out of L.A.'s reach, price-wise. I guess we should also recognize that the 14th spot is likely to be filled with a guy not on this list, someone we've never heard of, perhaps one of the bigs who played either the Lakers' Vegas League team or someone else's team.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 19:45 | |

I don't understand how Google decides what sites are worthy of inclusion in Google News and what are not. I found, for instance, this post on Google News today, advocating a trade of Lamar Odom for Tayshaun Prince. The claim is that it would be ideal because the Lakers get the SF defender they want while the Pistons get a scorer/creator. Now, I've always loved Prince, but you know why I love him? Because he's an awesome player, a guy who can shoot the three, rebound, pass the ball, play both tough, smart defense and make hustle plays, a guy who doesn't demand the ball but could do a lot of things if he were the primary playmaker. And he hasn't missed a game in five years! He makes $9.5, $10, and $11 million the next three years. This isn't a trade asset, this is a guy you build your team around (and based on the fact that his name never seems to come up in credible trade rumors, Joe Dumars knows this).

But my favorite part of the post is the complete whiff on the salary-matching. The poster recognizes that another salary would have to come with Prince for Odom to make the deal work under the cap rules, so he suggests the Pistons sign-and-trade Kwame Brown. Uh, last I checked, that wasn't allowed. As Larry Coon says, "Under no circumstances can a team sign and then trade another team's free agent." That is, the Lakers could sign-and-trade DJ Mbenga, but they could not pull a sign-and-trade involving Robert Horry.

I really shouldn't bash, I know. It's just a blogger. But it was on Google News! It would come up if you searched for "Lakers Tayshaun Artest dynamic".

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 16:26 | |

Well, it's official: goodbye, Ronny. Thanks for the memories.

Thomas Lee thinks this was a bad move because Turiaf brings energy and hustle. My favorite line: "I know that the Warriors offered him more than the Lakers can afford, but why didn't the Lakers offer him something sooner? Why did the Lakers just sit and do nothing?" I'm curious who Thomas's inside sources are that told him the Lakers had no talks with Ronny and made him no offers.

Lee also suggests a classic "bunch of trash for all your good stuff" trade: Odom + Walton + Radman for Marion + Haslem + 2d round pick. Walton's contract looks pretty horrible right now (it's the longest contract on the Lakers, shockingly), Radman is a one-dimensional player 75% of the time (although is occasional sweeping drives to the hoop and pinpoint passes are pretty, they're much too occasional to be worth much), and in return the Lakers get a defensive player of Marion's caliber, a really useful banger inside, and a pick? For basically Odom plus salaries? No, I don't think Miami's ready to do that deal.

Also, Walter Herrmann might still be an option to return to Detroit

The updated free agent target list:

• Ronny Turiaf -- four years, $17 million, Golden State
• James Posey -- Hornets, four years, $25 million
• DJ Mbenga -- waiting for the phone to ring, I'm sure
• Corey Maggette -- five years, $50 million, Golden State
• Sun Yue -- Kupchak wants to bring him over, but no word yet on a deal
• Kurt Thomas -- Spurs are his first choice? Lakers?
• Brent Barry -- two years, $3.9 million, Houston
• Craig Smith -- two-year deal to return to Minnesota
• Carl Landry -- qualifying offer extended by Houston
• Walter Herrmann -- big European money on the table? back to Detroit?
• Randolph Morris -- Atlanta?
• Kwame Brown -- Bucks, Heat, Hawks apparently interested
• Eduardo Najera -- undisclosed deal with the Nets
• Juwan Howard -- ?
• Robert Horry -- not retiring; Spurs or Rockets?
• Francisco Elson -- Denver, New Jersey, Seattle, Charlotte, Lakers; Miami?
• Theo Ratliff -- back to Detroit?
• Adonal Foyle -- back to Orlando?
• Quinton Ross -- with Brand gone, maybe the Clippers bring him back, but everyone is interested, including Phoenix, Orlando, New Jersey?
• Bostjan Nachbar -- Detroit? With the Nets adding Najera and Jarvis Hayes, does that mean no room for Nachbar?
• Dorell Wright -- qualifying offer from Miami
• Sasha Vujacic -- qualifying offer from the Lakers
• Patrick O'Bryant -- two years, $3 million, Celtics
• David Harrison -- Denver?
• Chris Andersen -- probably not Boston after signing O'Bryant; Cleveland? back to the Nuggets?
• Primoz Brezec -- Seattle, Chicago, Miami?
• Jorge Garbajosa

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 11:19 | |

Check out Laker Nation for the newest Odom rumor: Artest, Shelden Williams, Quincy Douby. Not as horrible as Kenny Thomas, but the non-Artest guys are still worthless. Douby's no Jordan Farmar, and I think I'd even rather have Coby Karl off the bench than him. I'll take him over Joe Crawford, though. And Williams? He's better than Thomas, but he's still no Mikki Moore. The advantage is that both guys expire after this year, instead of after 2010, like Thomas. The question remains: do you give up a gifted rebounder, a mismatch nightmare, a guy who gets inside almost at will, a player who doesn't just know his role as a third option/playmaker but actually relishes that role, for a volume shooter who can't stay healthy and might smack his wife around the day after the trade? I don't, not if you're not getting back additional guys who can play (Moore) instead of just salary ballast (Thomas, Williams, Douby, who my iPhone always wants to change to Doubt).

All that said, the good recent news from Marc Stein is that the Lakers are " reluctant" to give up Odom in an Artest swap. I guess they're trying to get the deal done with Vlad Rad and Luke Walton or something, which doesn't strike me as a viable move for Sacto, but would be a relatively unobjectionable type of deal from my standpoint. Pretty much any Artest deal that kept Odom in LA is fine with me, even if it involves giving up a good player like Jordan Farmar to get it done. There's just no reason to rashly trade Odom.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 18:18 | |

James Posey is a New Orleans Hornet. This is pretty much as good as it gets for the Lakers. It had started to become clear that whoever stepped up with a four-year deal was going to get Posey. This meant that if the Lakers signed him, they'd lose because four years is simply too much for a 32-year-old role player who does exactly two things: play defense and hit threes. Now, granted, those two things are valuable, and Posey was a big part of his two championship teams, but is going to be hitting threes at a 38% clip when he's 34? Will he lose a step on defense and stop being able to stay in front of guys without fouling? Those are the risks you take when you sign old players. Even Gary Payton lost a step on defense as he got older, and James Posey is no Gary Payton.

Anyway, I'm glad the Hornets ended up with him even though this makes New Orleans a tougher West team for the next year or two. Why? Because I still don't see who scores for New Orleans off the bench, and this signing keeps Posey from going back to Boston.

The Celtic bench is now Big Baby Davis (7" vertical), JR Giddens (a rookie guard who was a volume shooter in college, a poor free-throw guy, and couldn't hit the college three ball), Leon Powe (motor, but what else?), Bill Walker (knee troubles), and Patrick O'Bryant (um). And I guess Gabe Pruitt? This is a bench that has to back up a starting lineup that includes two youngish guys (Rondo and Perkins are "young vets", but they definitely play young at times) and three guys with a lot of mileage on their bodies in Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. If Allen gets hurt, is your starting two-guard really JR Giddens or Gabe Pruitt? If Pierce goes down, is your small forward Bill Walker? Is this seriously a championship team?

Of course, this just means that Detroit will beat Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, so that if the Lakers manage to push through New Orleans and San Antonio to have a shot at the championship themselves, they'll still face a tough team with an excellent mix of veteran talent and young gunners, a team that can beat you with starters or with bench guys, and a team that can win with offense or defense.

The updated free agent target list:

• Ronny Turiaf -- four years, $17 million, front-loaded, Golden State (Lakers can match, but shouldn't)
• James Posey -- Hornets, four years, $25 million
• DJ Mbenga -- waiting for the phone to ring, I'm sure
• Corey Maggette -- five years, $50 million, Golden State
• Sun Yue -- Kupchak wants to bring him over, but no word yet on a deal
• Kurt Thomas -- Spurs are his first choice? Lakers?
• Brent Barry -- two years, $3.9 million, Houston
• Craig Smith -- qualifying offer extended by Minnesota
• Carl Landry -- qualifying offer extended by Houston
• Walter Herrmann -- big European money on the table?
• Randolph Morris -- Atlanta?
• Kwame Brown -- Bucks, Heat, Hawks apparently interested
• Eduardo Najera -- undisclosed deal with the Nets
• Juwan Howard -- ?
• Robert Horry -- not retiring; Spurs or Rockets?
• Francisco Elson -- not going back to Seattle; Miami?
• Theo Ratliff -- back to Detroit?
• Adonal Foyle -- back to Orlando?
• Quinton Ross -- with Brand gone, maybe the Clippers bring him back, but everyone is interested, including Phoenix, Orlando, New Jersey?
• Bostjan Nachbar -- Detroit? With the Nets adding Najera and Jarvis Hayes, does that mean no room for Nachbar?
• Dorell Wright -- qualifying offer from Miami
• Sasha Vujacic -- qualifying offer from the Lakers
• Patrick O'Bryant -- two years, $3 million, Celtics
• David Harrison -- Denver?
• Chris Andersen -- probably not Boston after signing O'Bryant; Cleveland? back to the Nuggets?
• Primoz Brezec -- Seattle, Chicago, Miami?
• Jorge Garbajosa

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 17:22 | |

Let me, really quickly, just throw in two more cents on Odom for Artest and Thomas. What's the stated reason for the Lakers doing the deal? The media reports are never about worries that Odom can't play the small forward position, while Artest's position is small forward. No, the reports are always about "toughness" and "getting punked" (as Marc Stein put it). This, not to put too fine a point on it, is stupid. The Lakers won the West last year. They rolled through the playoffs handily. Did you notice who they played in the playoffs? Utah and San Antonio (along with Denver). Those aren't teams that routinely test your toughness? Those aren't teams that hammer you inside? Yet nobody questioned the "toughness" of the Lakers all year, during the regular season or the playoffs, until Boston beat them. So is Boston really so super-awesome-tough that the Lakers just couldn't handle it, despite winning eight out of eleven games against Utah and San Antonio? Despite winning some of those games on the road? No, really, they're not. Boston was just better. Ray Allen shot like the Ray Allen of old, Paul Pierce played at the top of his game, and the role players all chipped in. Boston rebounded better than the Lakers, and they defended the paint against L.A.'s inside scoring (Pau, Kobe, and Lamar), but were they tougher? Or were Pau's rebounding weaknesses, Lamar's penchant to use his length instead of his strength, and Kobe's inability to go 1-on-5 (not to mention the wild inconsistency in defensive three seconds calls) the real reasons for Boston's interior dominance?

You know where I stand on this. Ron Artest is a perimeter player. He might bring "toughness", but he also brings mediocre jump shooting and a complete absence of rebounding. Sure, he can guard Paul Pierce, but the Lakers are only playing Paul Pierce twice next year. (Mark my words. Especially if they do this deal -- I don't think L.A. gets back to the Finals if Artest is on the team, and I don't think Boston gets back to the Finals at all, whether James Posey is back or not.) So why not keep the better player who's actually been on the team, knows the offensive and defensive schemes, and now has serious recent playoff experience. (The last time Artest was in the playoffs was 2006, and the only time he's been out of the first round was 2004. He's never been to the Finals.)

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 12:35 | |

The Nets signed Eduardo Najera, which I guess I missed the first time around. Najera's a guy I thought could help the Lakers' depth inside, but he's off the table now. Here's the list of players I've mentioned as possibilities for the team and who's now gone (note that most of these aren't players I've seen in rumors; they're mostly just "available bigs", although some of them are rumor guys; against my better instincts, I've included some centers on the list instead of just power forwards, as I had before, because I guess if it comes down to it, the Lakers might just have to bring in a big body instead of someone who'll replace Turiaf more directly):

• Ronny Turiaf -- four years, $17 million, front-loaded, Golden State (Lakers can match, but shouldn't)
• James Posey -- still waffling
• DJ Mbenga -- waiting for the phone to ring, I'm sure
• Corey Maggette -- five years, $50 million, Golden State
• Sun Yue -- Kupchak wants to bring him over, but no word yet on a deal
• Kurt Thomas -- Spurs are his first choice?
• Brent Barry -- two years, $3.9 million, Houston
• Craig Smith -- qualifying offer extended by Minnesota
• Carl Landry -- qualifying offer extended by Houston
• Walter Herrmann -- big European money on the table?
• Randolph Morris -- not welcome back in New York?
• Kwame Brown -- Bucks, Heat apparently interested
• Eduardo Najera -- undisclosed deal with the Nets
• Juwan Howard -- ?
• Robert Horry -- not retiring; Spurs or Rockets?
• Francisco Elson -- not going back to Seattle; Miami?
• Theo Ratliff -- back to Detroit?
• Adonal Foyle -- back to Orlando?
• Quinton Ross -- with Brand gone, maybe the Clippers bring him back, but everyone is interested, including Phoenix, Orlando, New Jersey?
• Bostjan Nachbar -- Detroit? With the Nets adding Najera and Jarvis Hayes, does that mean no room for Nachbar?
• Dorell Wright -- qualifying offer from Miami
• Sasha Vujacic -- qualifying offer from the Lakers
• Patrick O'Bryant -- two years, $3 million, Celtics
• David Harrison -- Denver?
• Chris Andersen -- probably not Boston after signing O'Bryant; Cleveland?
• Primoz Brezec -- Seattle, Chicago, Miami?
• Jorge Garbajosa

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 12:47 | |

Well, there goes Brent Barry. Highly affordable contract, too, coming in at under $2 million per year for two years.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 13:58 | |

I think Broderick Turner at the Press-Enterprise had it first: Ronny Turiaf has signed an offer sheet with the Warriors. The deal is four years, $17 million. That's $4.25 mil/year, for the mathematically disinclined. And when you write out that per-year number, you kind of realize the Lakers will (and should) never match this offer sheet (and you kind of wonder what the Warriors are thinking). $4.25 million isn't a ton of money in the NBA-verse, but it's still a lot to pay for a guy who'll play 15 minutes per game, even if he is a stellar defensive player. Given that I referred to a four-year, $4 million per deal as "going nuts" in this post, I think I have to stick to my guns and vote no on a four-year, $4.25 million deal.

Now, it turns out that my list of guys who might replace him might not be as much in reach as I thought it was. DeSagana Diop, for instance, signed a full-midlevel deal for five years and $31 million to return to Dallas. Diop is a guy who's offensively even more limited than Turiaf, with no post moves to speak of and certainly no midrange jumper (which Turiaf improved this year). That said, there are still players out there should the Lakers get a little desperate for big man help (and it's not clear they will be: they might just go with Chris Mihm as their main backup big and leave it at that): Craig Smith, undersized PF from Inglewood, two-year vet, restricted free agent with Minnesota, not a shot-blocker, but a good rebounder and a much better offensive presence than Ronny; Carl Landry, undersized PF in Houston, restricted free agent, similar profile as Smith but an even more valuable offensive player; Walter Herrmann, a little skinny at PF, listed by ESPN as a SF, but tall enough to play up front, good offensive numbers in Charlotte two years ago but bad ones last year with Detroit and Charlotte, good rebounder, not a shot blocker, restricted free agent; Randolph Morris, the guy who loopholed his way from Kentucky straight to the Knicks, bypassing the draft, but hardly played last year, sizeable, but who knows what his game is, restricted free agent. Then there are a bunch of unrestricted free agents: Kurt Thomas, who I've talked about; Kwame Brown (who some people seem to be excited about, but I can't really advocate this point of view -- I don't think Phil likes him, and he's a liability offensively); Eduardo Najera, another undersized guy, but an energy-and-hustle player who's not an offensive zero; Juwan Howard, who's probably done, but could still bang some bodies underneath for a few minutes a night if he had to; the aforementioned Bob Horry; Francisco Elson, because how else should we fill out the Lakers' international roster than with a guy born in the Netherlands?; Theo Ratliff, again mentioned before, and the one guy I see out there who can match Ronny's shot-blocking; and Adonal Foyle. A lot of these guys are bubble players, people who won't even make it onto NBA rosters next year, so given the sheer number of useful players available out there basically for free, you have to ask whether it makes sense to pay big (relatively) money for long (relatively) years to keep a guy like Turiaf instead of wishing him well and hoping he's still got some hugs for the Lakers when they visit Oakland.

So what does everyone else think? Lakers Nation figures L.A. won't match. Forum Blue and Gold agrees with me that the Warriors are overpaying (and compares this to the Derek Fisher signing of a few years ago). Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith are advocated as potential replacements, either of which I'd be perfectly happy with. (But neither of which will happen if James Posey is signed, I should add, seeing as how the entire reason he's upset with Boston is that they're not offering the full MLE. Giving Posey what he wants would result in no room for adding any more players, right?) Brian Kamenetzky refers to Turiaf as a "luxury" given a healthy Bynum and Mihm, but would still like to match Golden State's offer, keeping the known quantity around rather than trying to go out and find a replacement. There's certainly logic to that, given the potential incompatibility between signing a guy the Lakers covet like Posey and also bringing in a replacement backup big, but at the same time, the money has to start being a concern: the last thing Jerry Buss wants is to pay a Knicks-like luxury tax bill, isn't it? When we're talking about keeping around spare parts, not re-signing Kobe or Pau or something?

On the James Posey front, the Boston Globe says that the Celtics have increased their offer to him from the three years, $12 million they initially put on the table. It isn't clear how much the offer was increased, but it seems unlikely that the full MLE was offered, since you'd have to figure that Posey would sign that straightaway -- if that's the most he can get anywhere, why not get it in Boston? I think he's going to end up with a Diop deal, the full MLE, but given those dollars and that length, I think it won't (and shouldn't) be the Lakers. Posey, let's not forget, is 31 already. Does L.A. really want him badly enough to keep him around until he's 36? Is he really that valuable? Can't you get Brent Barry for shorter and cheaper? Quinton Ross is available if you want guard defense. Bostjan Nachbar? Dorell Wright? None of these guys bring the package that Posey brings, but they also don't come with the "Wow, the Celtics would have totally lost if not for Posey" (a debatable point) factor, either. Excelling in the Finals is like playing well in the NCAA tournament used to be: a guarantee of more attention (and thus more money) than you're really worth.

Finally, the Ron Artest talk just won't die. Sam Amick at the Sacramento Bee claims that the Lakers are willing to give up Odom to get Artest, but the question is whether they'll take back Kenny Thomas in the deal. Let's Trade Machine this -- can the deal happen any other way than Odom for Artest and Thomas? (Artest makes like half of what Odom does, so that's the problem that has to be solved.) Let's set some parameters and then I'll give you the trades the Trade Machine approves of. The Lakers aren't giving up Bryant, Bynum, Farmar, Fisher, or Gasol. The Kings aren't giving up Francisco Garcia, Spencer Hawes, Kevin Martin, or Brad Miller.

So here are some possibilities besides the Artest+Thomas one: Artest and Shareef Abdur-Rahim for Odom; Artest and Mikki Moore for Odom; Artest and John Salmons for Odom. You can add Quincy Douby to any of those deals and it still works. Same for Shelden Williams. You can add both Douby and Williams to the Salmons deal. Douby and Williams could be added to the Abdur-Rahim or Moore deals if the Lakers sent back Chris Mihm or Trevor Ariza.

Ok, so that's everything plausible I could find that doesn't include Kenny Thomas. Now, none of those are particularly appetizing deals, but at least they don't include an $8.5 million, 2-year contract for a mediocre backup power forward. On that list, I think my favorite, if a deal has to be done, is the Mikki Moore deal. I don't think the Lakers want Douby, because when would he play? He's not going to be on the court over Farmar or Fisher, so what good does he do? Anyway, Moore's deal also has two years left, but it's $3 million cheaper per year, and he's a high-energy guy who'll block some shots, be a decent rebounder, and provide some of that "toughness inside" that everyone seems to think the Lakers are lacking. A Lakers-Celtics rematch might end up with Moore and Kendrick Perkins suspended for the entire series. If Odom has to go, and Artest has to be the one coming back, then I hereby demand that Mikki Moore come with him. The Kings won't want to give him up, but you've got to give value to get value, right? And the Kings would be getting one hell of a value in Lamar Odom, both his talent and his $14 million expiring deal.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 21:31 | |

Turns out I've left off a few players the Lakers have been connected to and how they might fit into the roster:

Brent Barry has been named, and he wouldn't be a terrible replacement for Sasha Vujacic, though he doesn't really play defense. Greg Popovich did run with him as his point guard for a time during the Lakers series, though, so he can handle the ball better than a lot of guys that have been named as potential replacements if Vujacic doesn't resign. (And this is somewhat important, since Sasha brings the ball up the floor with some frequency when he's on the floor.)

Kurt Thomas's name has also been bandied about as a guy to bring in if Ronny Turiaf can't be brought back. I wouldn't really object to this so long as the money and/or years aren't large. Thomas is basically the same player as Turiaf, but a little smaller and with a little better outside shooting (15 feet) touch (though Turiaf has improved on this since he's come into the league).

Mickael Pietrus is apparently also on the table, but I'm not sure the purpose of that. He's an exciting slasher and finisher, but I'm not sure that offensively he adds much over Trevor Ariza, combined with the fact that he doesn't know the triangle yet, while Ariza at least has half a year of playing and watching to figure things out.

Finally, Sun Yue's name keeps popping up. He's a 6'9" guy who plays the point in China, which makes Lakers fans all fuzzy for Magic Johnson. I've mentioned my skepticism in a previous post, and I'll reiterate it here. Do we really want to bring over a promising young guy like Yue to sit on the bench as the 11th or 12th man on this team? I seriously doubt he'd play right away, especially since his outside shooting game is apparently pretty shaky, and the triangle isn't really a point guard system, which is reportedly his great strength: court vision, passing. He's also potentially not even the best point guard in China, which doesn't bode well for his ability to come here and thrive. He did average 13.5 points and 10.5 assists in the ABA in 2006-07 (his Chinese team was involved in a controversy that resulted in the team moving to the U.S. and playing in the ABA instead of the Chinese league; this actually probably benefits Sun because he's able to play against (slightly?) tougher competition).

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 18:53 | |

Now that the free agency period is underway, and players can start officially signing on Wednesday, I thought I'd take a look at where the Lakers stand and what the roster is shaping up to be next year.

Definitely on the team next year: Kobe, Pau, Bynum, Fisher.

On the team partially because they're useful and partially because they're untradeable: Radmanovic and Walton.

Almost certainly on the team, barring crazy trade that none of us sees coming: Farmar, Mihm, Ariza.

On the bubble: Odom, Vujacic, Turiaf.

Guys on other teams who might end up in LA: Artest, Posey, Maggette.

Scenario 1: Vujacic and Turiaf resign with the Lakers.

Subscenario A: No Odom trade. This is my preferred scenario. The team comes back for year two with a healthy Bynum and Ariza, and has the nice problem of figuring out what to do with too much talent. My favorite lineup: start with Bynum, Pau, Radmanovic, Kobe, and Fisher. Odom comes off the bench sometimes playing the 3 (if you want a huge lineup) and sometimes the 4 (most often the 4, if I have my way), depending on matchups. Pau swaps between the 4 and 5 as needed, and Bynum plays the five. If only one of that group of three is on the floor, you fill the other big spot with Turiaf, who plays the 4 with Pau or Bynum and the 5 with Odom. Vujacic is the backup shooting guard, sometimes with a traditional small forward, sometimes with Kobe at the 3, depending on matchups. Farmar backs up Fisher: one of these two is always on the floor, and they're never there together. Ariza plays the three as the shutdown defender, but only when he can be the fifth option offensively. He should never be on the floor with Turiaf, in other words. Walton plays the three as the facilitator when Kobe is out, getting the ball to the right spot for the bigs and being the fifth shooting option (so again, no overlap with Turiaf). When Turiaf is in the game, either Radmanovic or Kobe should be at the 3. Mihm is an emergency twelfth guy, playing about as much as a twelfth man should. But goodness, isn't that a nice team? Eleven useful players! I like this plan, fitting the rotation together this way.

Subscenario B: Odom traded for Artest and Kenny Thomas. One thing that makes this less likely is that now you've got thirteen players. I guess you just deactivate Chris Mihm, though, and run with a Kobe through Thomas roster. In this case, the starters are Pau, Bynum, Artest, Kobe, and Fisher. Farmar is in the same role as before. Vujacic is probably now a more traditional backup two because you've got Artest as a legitimate three, so why move Kobe over there? (This is another reason not to do the deal: why limit Vujacic's role after a big-ish contract and a breakout year?) Radmanovic is a shooter off the bench behind Artest, and he might nominally play the four if the other team has gone small. Ariza is ... redundant. Artest is your lockdown defender, and Ariza isn't much offensively, so his minutes would likely take a huge hit, down to like eleventh man status. And Walton isn't in any better boat. As I said, this is why Odom for Artest doesn't work: it leaves you down to zero good power forwards (Pau's a center) and four small forwards. The existence of Kobe means you can't shift any of them to shooting guard for very long, so you just get redundancy without those guys being trade chits because their contracts make them untradeable. Anyway, Turiaf and Thomas split minutes at the backup big spots. I'm not enthused by this at all.

Subscenario C: Posey signs. Mihm is again shunted off to the inactive list. I think here, Posey becomes the starting three and matches up against McGrady, Pierce, Kirilenko, Peja, Durant, or whoever right from the start. Radmanovic is a shooter at the 2-4 spots, Ariza plays defense for Posey when he's out, and Walton doesn't get many minutes. Why am I more comfortable with this than the Artest situation? Because Odom is still here, playing the four with either Bynum or Gasol. This lineup actually leaves more room for Sasha because while Posey is a useful offensive player, you can still feel ok putting him on the bench and sliding Kobe to the three in a way you can't with Artest. I like this situation, not least because it gets Posey away from those bastard Celtics, but also because it really looks like a nice team, one where Ariza still has his uses because Posey won't play the minutes that Artest would be expecting.

Subscenario D: Maggette signs. Here, I think Radmanovic is the starter and Maggette comes off the bench as a dynamic offensive player. He's especially useful when Kobe is on the bench, but he's of course not limited to those times. This again limits Sasha's minutes because you don't play him over Maggette if you need offense. Everyone else's roles stay the same as in previous situations.

Scenario 2: Turiaf gone (to the Jazz?), Sasha back.

Subscenario A: No changes. Now LA is short a player and stuck with Mihm as your only backup big, which is problematic because he's not a power forward the way Ronny is. You probably then have to resign Mbenga as the twelfth man or else run with Coby Karl or Joe Crawford in that spot. The back three spots in the rotation play out as above, with Odom off the bench, etc. This is not horrible, although I'd like to have Turiaf's energy and defensive chops playing a few minutes a night for my squad instead of Mihm.

Subscenario B: Trade Lamar. Now you've basically got Pau playing power forward full-time because Lamar isn't around. On top of that, any time either Pau or Bynum sits, you've got Kenny Thomas on the floor. And don't even think about sitting both Pau and Bynum, unless you're turned on by the thought of Mihm at center with Thomas at PF, or Thomas at center with Radmanovic at PF. And you've still got a logjam at small forward, unless you want to Radmanovic or Artest spending significant time at the four.

Subscenario C: Posey. This isn't so bad. You've got to figure that with Bynum, Pau, and Odom, Turiaf wouldn't be logging many minutes anyway, so moving to a smaller lineup for those few minutes, probably with Posey at the four, isn't so bad.

Subscenario D: Maggette. This isn't optimal because you get the worst of both worlds: no reliable backup big and Sasha squeezed our of PT by the fact that Maggette would take some of the floor time he earned last year.

Scenario 3: Sasha leaves (Houston?), Ronny back.

Subscenario A: No change. I think I move Ariza to the starting lineup here so that the knock-down shooter off the bench can be Radmanovic. For the eight minutes or so that Kobe is on the bench, I guess you can run with Ariza at the two, or maybe Vlad. The mechanics of that may be awkward with Ariza starting, so maybe Walton starts instead? Neither is ideal, but as long as Odom is out there with that unit, you've probably got enough ballhandlers to survive. In this lineup, Kobe never leaves the two spot because he's really the only two-guard on the roster.

Subscenario B: Artest. Now you've got Turiaf or Thomas playing whenever Pau or Bynum is out, and occasionally both together. That's not horrible because at least Turiaf can fake being a center for a few minutes. However, one of the major worries about a new small forward, being redundant with Sasha, would be alleviated here. That said, you've still got just one two-guard on the roster, although Artest kind of approximates one in that he's not really an interior presence, so you could go with a big lineup of him, one of the small forwards, Pau, and Bynum, which would be a hellaciously large group.

Subscenario C: Posey. Posey addresses the loss of Sasha's three point shooting the way Artest doesn't. Anything else there is to be said about this is said above.

Subscenario D: Maggette. Again, it's been said before: gain Maggette's dynamism, lose backcourt depth, cause tangle ups for playing time at SF, likely resulting in the burying of Luke Walton.

I refuse to even address the doomsday scenario of both Sasha and Ronny leaving town. When you've got three small forwards, and Lamar Odom might have to play out of position there, and your only real free agent targets are small forwards, you can't really lose a backcourt guy who gives you active, tenacious defense and an energy big at the same time. The replacements for these two just aren't out there, especially since LA only has cap exceptions to pay outside free agents.

Since it's not my money, I prefer the situation where both guys come back and the team lures either Maggette or Posey to LA. Given the unlikeliness if that, I'm a fan of the status quo: nobody new on the roster going into the year. Failing that, the only obviously bad thing to do is trading Odom. Everyone's focused on his ability to play the three, but there are two responses, both of which have been mentioned before, here and elsewhere: first, he doesnt have to start, but could come off the bench to form a potent big-man triad with Pau and Bynum; second, focus on the negatives instead of the positives: he can rebound over nearly any small forward in the league, he can post them up with his size and strength advantages, and his length can help make up for his quickness deficiencies on the defensive end. For instance, maybe Paul Pierce could get by him to the hole, but don't forget that there will be two excellent shot blockers waiting, plus Odom's long arms chasing from behind. And Odom can get in his face in a jumpshot. Also, how many top-flight small forwards are there out there? Pierce isn't typical; Odom's more frequent matchup would be Shane Battier, Jeff Green, or Bruce Bowen. On the other end, can Pierce (or any of these guys) really do anything against Odom if he goes into the block? Or if he grabs a rebound and goes back up? Of course the problem with this is that there's not enough room for Odom in the paint because you've got the Towers down there at the same time.

Regardless, the point is that it'd be a huge mistake to trade a clearly talented player because you're worried about what he can't do instead of asking what he does that helps you.

By the way, the rest of the Laker blogosphere agrees with me on Lamar: here's Andrew Kamenetzky, trying to put together a feasible Artest trade not involving Odom and basically failing; and here's a tremendous analysis of Artest's game vs. Lamar's by Kurt, concluding that Artest's volume-shooting ways on offense aren't what the Lakers need, especially when giving up Odom's rebounding (Artest's is miserable) and passing.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 01:54 | |

Contradicting earlier language by Bynum that he didn't want the max contract, that something less would still make him happy, the Orange County Register reports that Bynum will be asking for the max (5 years, $80 million) in contract extension talks with the Lakers. Now, "asking" for the max is a whole different thing from, say, "demanding" the max. Obviously, when the league sets a max contract, that's a cap on the negotiation, and when you're a player of Bynum's caliber, you may as well start the negotiations at that point and work down from there until you reach a point the two sides can agree on. (This is obviously why the league sets a max contract in the first place.) Might Bynum be able to hold off signing an extension and extract the max from L.A.? It's possible. The media would certainly be all over the Lakers for not locking up the guy who brings what everyone thinks they need: "toughness" inside. So that's Bynum's bargaining chip. Well, that and he's set to be at worst the fourth-best center in the league (Dwight Howard, Greg Oden, Yao Ming) for the next ten years or so. On the Lakers side, they've got the fact that he's had exactly half of one good year, it's not clear how he'll play with Pau Gasol, and his future is generally not a sure thing in the least.

I think he'll eventually settle for less than the max, but not substantially less. Maybe $65-70 million over five years?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 00:12 | |

Here's a fun rumor from Lakers Nation: Sasha Vujacic may have been offered a 5-year, $30 million contract. That is, I think, the max mid-level exception contract that can be offered. Were it true, you'd have to think the Lakers would let him go and go after Brent Barry or James Posey, as today's L.A. Times reports that those two guys are on Mitch Kupchak's list for backup plans. Vujacic is a nice player, but $6 million is a lot of money, especially over five years. Even that amount over three years wouldn't be so bad, although obviously you'd prefer something like $4 million for three years or so. Anyway, as Lakers Nation notes, it's just an unsourced rumor, so let's not get too crazy at this point.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 00:08 | |

It is time for me to weigh in on Ronny Turiaf. I think the Lakers can't keep him. There, I have weighed in.

Ok, no, wait. Look, I love Ronny. I love that his name is spelled "Ronny" but it's pronounced "Rony" like "Rony Seikaly". Who didn't love Rony Seikaly in NBA Jam? I love that Ronny is the best dancer in the league. I love that the fans and his teammates love him. I love that he's a monster shot blocker despite not being the biggest guy in the world. I love his hair. I love how barrel-chested he is. No, scratch that. I love how he's basically just a barrel on legs that jumps a lot. I love his energy, his infectious love for the good things his teammates do.

But you know what I don't love? I don't love that when he's on the floor, it's 4-on-5 when the Lakers have the ball. I don't love that his rebounding percentage was even below Pau Gasol's, despite his entire job being to rebound and play defense. I don't love that his skill set is basically replaceable.

But here's what I really don't love: I don't love that I'm completely uncertain about whether losing him to another team will affect the Lakers' makeup. I have no mixed feelings whatsoever about chemistry in baseball: it doesn't matter in 99% of situations. I have much more mixed feelings about chemistry in sports like basketball and football, however. On the one hand, the Shaq-Kobe thing was pretty much poisonous for at least the last three years of their five-year run, yet they won a championship and got to the Finals one other time in those three years. On the other hand, it seems hard to discount the joy this Lakers team played with in completely overachieving this season. So would removing Ronny make the team less happy? Probably. Does that matter? I really don't know.

Of course, it's not just a question of losing Turiaf's lack of skills as well as his emotion: he was actually fifth on the team last year in Win Shares Above Average and third in Defensive Win Shares, so his defensive skill set is showing up in some of these numbers. (The same numbers on the offensive side of the ledger confirm how awful he is on that side of the court.)

There's also the question of if he does get away, who actually replaces him? Supposing Lamar Odom were traded for that Chicago package that just seems better and better to me every day, the answer is "Joakim Noah and Ty Thomas". But failing that (and I'm pretty sure an Odom trade isn't forthcoming), who's out there? Jamaal Magloire? Eduardo Najera? Theo Ratliff? DeSagana Diop? Melvin Ely? (cringe) Bob Horry? Primoz Brezec? Some of these guys aren't bad: Najera, Ratliff, and Diop can all provide defensive lift off the bench, but do any of them give you things Turiaf doesn't? And if that's the case, then does it make sense to bring one of them in when you could just bring back Ronny?

Here's what it comes down to: if someone goes nuts and offers Ronny like $4 million for four years or $3.5 for five or something like that, I just don't see how L.A. can match. Since they're over the cap, double the dollar values to get the real cost out of Jerry Buss's pocket, and you see how those prices could be steep, especially given Turiaf's limited skills. It'd be crazy for someone to give Ronny that kind of money, wouldn't it? Sure, of course it would, but this is the NBA, where L.A. lost Mark Madsen to a big-money Minnesota contract a few years back, you'll recall. Turiaf's got to be twice the player Madsen is, right? (Though they're probably on the same level, dancing-wise.)

So, conclusion? It depends. That's an awful, wishy-washy conclusion, but it's true. It really depends on what kind of money is out there for him from other teams. You can't begrudge a second-rounder with a heart condition taking the biggest dollars he's likely to ever see, and I'd wish him well if he got them. I just hope that they don't come from Dr. Buss.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in L.A. Lakers at 00:32 | |