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Sticky Postings
Sunday, August 24. 2008
The NFL in Victoria (on TV)
Because I know you care: I made a spreadsheet of the games I'll probably see on TV this year, mainly relying on The 506's maps of last year, combined with their listings of the national games, and Awful Announcing's lists of which games are on which networks at which times so far. There are three uncertainties in my spreadsheet: first, there are the Sunday Night Games that can be flexed out; second, there's the fact that I'm guessing for any timeslot where the Texans or Cowboys aren't involved; third, I think I'm not in Houston's coverage area so that I won't get blacked out of other games while they have home games going, but I'm not entirely sure about that.
As to that last point, I'm about 85% sure that I'm not in Houston's area. In any case, this would affect only six entries in my spreadsheet: in Week 5, Fox would have to go with an afternoon game, which would be Bucs v. Broncos; in Week 6, Fox's morning game would get blocked; in Week 7, CBS's afternoon game would get blocked; in Week 10, I'd get Panthers v. Raiders in the afternoon; in Week 15, I'd get Vikings v. Cardinals in the afternoon; and in Week 17, CBS's morning game would get blocked. I'd only actually lose two games even if I'm inside Houston's market, but there'd be a fair amount of shifting in terms of which teams I got to see overall.
As to the Flex point, Chicago v. Minnesota in Week 13 seems like the only game that has a good chance of being flexed out, except maybe Chargers v. Bucs in Week 17. The other games involve Dallas (twice), Indy, the Giants, and the Patriots, so they seem to stand a good chance of sticking around.
As to my guesses ... well, they're my guesses. But a summary of the results: I will of course get all 16 Texans games; eleven Cowboys games are for sure, and the two SNF Flex games, as I said, seem likely to stick around. The next-highest team in terms of times I'm sure to see them is the Steelers, oddly enough: nine times! Add in two "questionable" times and I think I'll see them eleven times this year. That ranks behind only Indianapolis in terms of total times I figure I'll see them (13), who are not only a marquee team with a marquee quarterback, like the Steelers, but also a divisional rival of the Texans.
Teams I've got no guarantee of seeing are the Falcons, Rams, and Chiefs. Based on my guesses, I think I will actually not see the Chiefs even once this year. Which is fine by me.
As for the 49ers, I've got two guarantees and one more questionable (in Week 17, Fox's afternoon game, where they're matched up against the Redskins). The two guarantees are Week 12 in Dallas (where they'll likely get blown out) and Week 10 on MNF in Arizona. And of course by Week 17, there's a decent chance "Sully" will be down and out, Alex Smith will be retired, and Rich Gannon will have been lured out of retirement to lead the team to an improbable but meaningless victory at home against the Redskins, leaving them with a 6-10 record on the season.
Marc Gasol
Marc Gasol may not be as good as Pau, but I may have underestimated him -- he can probably be 80% of Pau (with upside at 100% of Pau or close thereto) at, what, 10% of the price? 15%? That's a solid deal for Memphis. (Not that I regret the trade -- I wouldn't give up last year's Finals run for anything.)
Saturday, August 23. 2008
Vikings QBs, II
Forget what I said. Frerotte just made a horrendous throw right to a Pittsburgh DB. Wow.
Vikings QBs
Gus Frerotte is looking really good as the Vikings' QB right now, with Tavaris Jackson out. Good enough that I wonder why, given how "well" Jackson has played the last few years, Frerotte isn't the starter.
Monday, August 18. 2008
Jim Leyland on the batting order
Check out what Jim Leyland has to say below about moving Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera up in the order.
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"Two great hitters, I'm going to get them up there more often if I can." My god, Jim Leyland gets it. He understands that a batting lineup is simply a method of distributing at-bats. The guys at the top bat more. Good hitters should bat more than bad hitters. End of story. Well done.
Obviously, it's not quite that simple. Platoon advantages matter to some extent, so you try to avoid stacking same-side hitters, and you have to figure out how to balance OBP and SLG (Frank Thomas, no matter his OBP, shouldn't be hitting first because that's a waste of his power), but as a general matter, this is what the lineup is about, not creating an "RBI spot" and a "contact hitter" spot and so forth.
Wednesday, August 13. 2008
Talent overload at USC
The best line in the article at below right is that USC can roll out a "clown car" of talent at basically every position. Which makes me wonder -- how on earth do they do it? What's the deal with these high school kids who look at USC and go, "Hey, you know where I want to go? A place where I'll ride the pine for four years because they've got All-Americans at every position." Why not go to UCLA, where you'll be a three-year starter? Or go up the coast a little bit to Cal or Stanford, or out of state to Oregon or Washington? Or to Arizona State? There are a lot of good programs in the vicinity of Southern California that these players can go to where they won't be stuck sitting on their thumbs, hoping to get a shot.
And this is far from unique to SC, of course. When you're Terrell Pryor, sure, you can pick your school. But what if you're the #20 QB in the country? Would you go to USC, knowing that they've probably recruited the #3 QB in the country from your class as well?
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Sunday, August 10. 2008
Joe Morgan on SNB
Not five minutes into tonight's Sunday Night Baseball, before the game has even started, Joe Morgan has said, "Now, I'm not real big on statistics, but ..." and then proceeded to cite some stats about how good the Cubs were. Hey, Joe, you know why you cited stats to prove your point there? Because they're the best evidence of your point! Believe it!
Friday, August 8. 2008
Oakland's offensive woes; no help for the future
So I have a question: where's the young impact Oakland talent on the offensive side? Every A's fan has heard about Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro, James Simmons, Josh Outman, Fautino De Los Santos, Craig Italiano, Greg Smith and Michel Inoa. Not all of these guys can be fairly labeled "impact", but people are genuinely excited about at least Cahill, Anderson, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, De Los Santos, and Inoa. The other five guys have good chances to be quality major leaguers. That's six exciting pitchers at various levels of the system, and five pretty good guys behind that. And then there's still Dana Eveland, Justin Duchscherer, and Sean Gallagher, who should all range from pretty good to adequate for the next few years. It's a hugely impressive feat for Billy Beane to have built this kind of pitching depth.
But I ask again: where's the offensive talent? Kurt Suzuki is solid at best. Daric Barton is struggling: partly he's not making contact (25% strikeout rate), partly his line-drive rate is down to 20%, and partly he seems to have gotten a little unlucky with the BABIP, as with that line drive percentage, you'd expect a BABIP around .320, but he's actually at .270, which is a pretty large gap. But let's not kid ourselves: Barton had ISO's under .150 at Sacramento in 2006 and 2007. Even John Olerud's career ISO was .170.
Anyway. Ryan Sweeney's all batting average. Carlos Gonzalez has an impressive-looking swing, and his batting average is ok, but his power is mediocre and he's a hacking machine (5% walk rate, 24% strikeout rate). Travis Buck is having the struggles of his life this year, in the majors and at AAA. Eric Patterson doesn't hit for as much power as you'd like out of a guy who will probably have to play a corner outfield spot. Cliff Pennington, despite a Futures Game appearance, has a popgun bat, though good on-base ability. Anthony Recker looks fine, but is he any better than Solid Suzuki? Javi Herrera is still hanging around, but he's not hitting for any power. Adrian Cardenas is also just solid. Jemile Weeks might fit that description also, though his on-base ability is impressive. He should hit for more power than Pennington, but enough to make a real difference?
The only guys A's fans can really get excited about are Sean Doolittle, who's really emerged as a power hitter at AA, and Chris Carter, who's bashed 31 homers in the Cal League. (Matt Sulentic might be on this list as well.) But both of those guys are first basemen (and Carter might just be a DH), and power-hitting first basemen are a dime a dozen, notwithstanding the A's inability to find one ever since Jason Giambi left.
Where's our Jay Bruce? Where's our Evan Longoria? Where's our Geovanny Soto? Our Joey Votto? Longoria and Bruce were very high draft picks, higher than the A's have picked in years (but Bruce was a 12th pick, and does anyone think Jemile Weeks is going to be as valuable as Bruce over the next ten years?), but Soto was an 11th rounder and Votto was 44th overall back in '02.
It's not just rookies that makes me ask where the A's young hitting talent is. The VORP leaderboards are full of young, pre-free agency talent: Hanley, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Ryan Braun, David Wright, Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin, Nate McLouth, Dan Uggla, Joe Mauer, Jhonny Peralta, Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Conor Jackson, Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Doumit, Curtis Granderson, Jason Bay, Russell Martin, Soto, JJ Hardy, Ryan Theriot, Matt Kemp, Stephen Drew, Jose Lopez, Mike Aviles, BJ Upton, Corey Hart, James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Fred Lewis, David DeJesus, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Spilborghs, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Howard, Kelly Johnson, Luke Scott, Chris Iannetta, Alex Rios, Mike Fontenot. Not all of these guys are young, but I'm fairly sure that this is the complete list of pre-free agency players who rank in VORP ahead of the A's top VORPer, Jack Cust, who is 109th in baseball. The highest VORP of a player on the A's who actually has a future with the team is Kurt Suzuki, who ranks 155th.
This is, frankly, depressing. It's depressing that even the Giants have youngish player (Fred Lewis) who is hitting better than any A's. It was going to get worse before it got better, because that's the course Billy Beane decided to run, but did it have to get so much worse?
Saturday, August 2. 2008
NFL Shenanigans
Check out the Patriots item below. The gist is that Al Davis apparently had an agreement with Lamont Jordan that he wouldn't sign with the Pats after being released by the Raiders. Two questions. First, this can't be legal under the CBA, can it? Isn't Al Davis just asking for the Commish to come down on him? (Oh, wait, no, Goodell is only interested in cracking down on those nasty bad players who misbehave by celebrating in the end zone, not on anti-competitive behavior by the owners.) Second, is it common anyway, the way it seems Joe Smith-type deals were fairly common before Kevin McHale got caught?
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Jared Lorenzen interview
Here's a fun interview with Jared Lorenzen, everyone's favorite NFL backup quarterback. (If he's not your favorite backup, there's something wrong with you. The man is like the Charles Barkley of quarterbacks, except that he throws a football 66 mph.)
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Saturday, July 26. 2008
The NBA gets uppity
Just a quick bit from the Sonics mess:
The NBA claimed in its motion to intervene that the transfer of the franchise to a court-appointed receiver and a subsequent transfer back to Schultz would both be prohibited by the league's constitution.(The following could be entirely wrong, but at first blush, this is what crosses my mind.)
The league also claimed in the motion that if a court-appointed receiver were to be appointed, the NBA's constitution allows for the league's owners to put that team "under the management and control" of Stern."
Guess what, league's constitution? You can suck it. Does the NBA honestly think the court cares that an order to Bennett to transfer the team back to Schultz, or an order to put the team in receivership, perhaps eventually to be transferred back to Schultz (or to Bennett), would "be prohibited"? If the court finds that some contract was violated by Bennett and that the proper remedy is that Schultz should get the team (i.e. the corporate entity comprising the Sonics and the WNBA team and god knows what else) back, then what does it matter that the constitution says this shouldn't happen? You know what the league's constitution is? It's a contract. You know who's not a party to that contract? The court. The court can't violate the NBA constitution by ordering a transfer of assets because the court isn't a party to the contract. It isn't bound thereby.
Friday, July 25. 2008
Finally, The Machine has come back to Los Angeles
That's right, Sasha Vujacic is back. This is good news, even if you can't really be happy with the Lakers having to pay $5 million a year for Vujacic's services. The Press-Enterprise says that the deal is a compromise between a 3-year, $12 million offer from the Lakers and a 4-year $24 million request from the Lakers.
Reed at Forum Blue and Gold posted on Sasha earlier today, before this news came out, and he made some interesting points. First, guys like Daniel Gibson, Jason Kapono, and Mickael Pietrus have been getting 4- and 5-year deals despite lower PER's than Sasha's. Second, and this may be a bit of a surprise, the single most efficient offensive unit in basketball last year was Farmar + Sasha + Kobe + Lamar + Pau. Not only did that unit score 1.37 points per possession, but it only allowed .99. That means that every five Laker possessions with that squad on the floor was resulting in a four-point lead. That's preposterous. So you can see why it was important for the Lakers to resign Vujacic.
On the flip side, as Reed also points out, Jerry Buss has a limited budget. Basically, the signing of Vujacic means the end of spending for the Lakers. With eleven guys under contract, and Coby Karl presumably being #12, the Lakers still have one or two (probably two) spots to fill. L.A. is probably still short a big man, given that Chris Mihm, while professing his health, has too long an injury history to be fully trusted. But that big man and the 14th spot will have to be filled by spending the veteran's minimum, most likely, which probably means DJ Mbenga or maybe someone like Randolph Morris, but probably not Carl Landry, Adonal Foyle, or Francisco Elson. Maybe this bodes well for Joe Crawford, though, who might now make the team while spending the year in the D-League and inactive on the L.A. roster.
And what about Sun Yue? If Mitch Kupchak wants to bring him over, will Buss let him given the state of the payroll? Presumably Yue isn't coming for Karl-type money, especially when it's Karl-type money to play in the D-League.
So I've updated the free agent watch list below, but I've added a new marker -- I've put italics around any players I think are probably out of L.A.'s reach, price-wise. I guess we should also recognize that the 14th spot is likely to be filled with a guy not on this list, someone we've never heard of, perhaps one of the bigs who played either the Lakers' Vegas League team or someone else's team.
Continue reading "Finally, The Machine has come back to Los Angeles"
Thursday, July 24. 2008
The Birdman flies to the Nuggets
I never really though The Birdman would fly to L.A., but it was kinda fun to dream, wasn't it? It looks like he'll sign a one-year deal with the Nuggets, though, returning to place where he made his name. Updated free agent watch list after the jump.
Continue reading "The Birdman flies to the Nuggets"
Wednesday, July 23. 2008
Luol Deng in a sign-and-trade?
Laker Nation links to Hoopsworld, which has the news that the Lakers, Pistons, Heat and Jazz have all talked to the Bulls about a sign-and-trade involving Luol Deng. This becomes an issue because apparently Deng and the Bulls aren't exactly seeing eye-to-eye in contract negotiations.
Figuring out sign-and-trade deals is particularly hard because you don't know what kind of salary the signee is going to have, and you have to kind of eyeball the whole thing because the Trade Machine can't deal with sign-and-trades. A deal with the Lakers likely wouldn't be the blockbuster Odom-for-piles-of-awesomeness I've dreamed up on this blog before, but let's see if we can figure out some things that'd work given some possible Deng salaries. First, a note: per Larry Coon's remarkable Salary Cap FAQ, we know that Deng is likely to get the 20% raise necessary to trigger the Base Year Compensation rule, which means that his salary for trade purposes is going to be considered is his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. Deng pulled down $3.3 million last year, so it'll either be that number or 50% of his new salary if he makes more than $6.6 million in the first year of his new deal.
So let's say Deng gets $7 million in the first year of the new deal. His cap number in a trade is then $3.5 million, which means the Lakers could send back Trevor Ariza and be within the 125% rule. If you increase Deng's salary a little bit, you could make Luke Walton the guy you send back, but do you think the Bulls are interested in a player with guaranteed money for the next five years who's coming off ankle surgery and whose bloodlines don't exactly suggest great health in his future?
I'm sure the Lakers wouldn't mind passing off Chris Mihm to the Bulls, but his salary is so low ($2.7 million) that another player would have to be included, and the Lakers don't really have any other players at the right salary level to throw in except Jordan Farmar and Coby Karl (and Karl's contract for this season is non-guaranteed; I don't know how that works with the traded player rules). Obviously, anyone would give up Mihm to get Deng. And I think you'd probably give up Ariza as well, even if you might miss Ariza's defense, because Deng's offensive talent and his ability to background his game for the greater good are something you can't really pass up if they're available for such a low cost. And I guess, though I hate to say it, you'd say the same thing about Jordan Farmar. Point guards aren't hard to find in this league, but as long as Phil Jackson's around, they're not that important in the offense, either, and Farmar's not exactly known as a stellar defensive guard. On the other hand, what does Chicago want with another guard? No, I think if a Deng-to-the-Lakers deal happened, it'd be for Ariza.
Of course, there are multiple questions here. What kind of money does Deng want? Does he want to play in L.A. over Detroit, Miami, or Utah? Would Chicago encourage Deng to agree to go to one of those other teams because they had better trade packages in place? Let's look at that last question.
Utah has a variety of small salaries, including Ronnie Price, Ronnie Brewer, Jason Collins, and Jason Hart. (I'm sorry, did I say "variety"? I meant "salaries attached to guys named Ronnie and Jason". That's odd.) All of these guys are in the $1.2 to $2.5 million range, so you could put together two or three of them to get Deng. That said, I'm not sure any one of them is as attractive as Trevor Ariza or Jordan Farmar except for Brewer. And does Utah give up Brewer for Deng? The Jazz already have Kirilenko and Harpring at the small forward spot, and maybe Kyle Korver if you want to count him there, but they don't really have a shooting guard outside of Brewer (again, depending on how you classify Korver). Are the Jazz comfortable giving up Brewer, sliding Korver in the starting SG spot, and running with both either Deng or Kirilenko off the bench?
Ok, how about Miami? They pretty much have Marcus Banks at the right salary level, and if, as I figure, the Bulls have no interest in Jordan Farmar, what would they want with Banks?
Finally, Detroit. Joe Dumars has Amir Johnson ($3.6 million), Jason Maxiell ($1.9), Rodney Stuckey ($1.7), and Arron Afflalo ($1.0) to work with. I'm not sure Dumars would be prepared to trade Maxiell or Stuckey for a guy who'd back up Tayshaun Prince when he's apparently also spent the entire summer trying to move Rasheed Wallace (Maxiell would step in there) and Chauncey Billups (Stuckey would step in). If a deal he can't beat pops up for one of those guys, he'd hate to be stuck saying no because he suddenly doesn't have a point guard on the roster, having traded him for a shiny new small forward. But Amir Johnson, desite twice the salary of Maxiell, doesn't seem to have quite the hype. If he sticks around with Detroit, it looks like he's destined to be Maxiell's backup. That makes him an eminently tradeable guy. For a Chicago team whose bigs consist of an expiring Drew Gooden (likely to be a big trade asset at this year's deadline), Joakim Noah, Ty Thomas, and Aaron Gray, getting a guy like Johnson would have to be considered a coup.
This is obviously all at the rumor stage, but let me tell you, it's a vastly more exciting rumor than Odom-for-Artest, even if it would make the Lakers a major luxury tax payer for years to come, what with Kobe, Pau, Bynum, maybe Odom, and Deng on the team. But goodness, what a team that'd be, right?
