Beaneball

So with the A's six games back, Billy Beane throws in the towel, trading Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs. Baseball Musings had the first story that I saw. Dave Pinto's initial reaction is that Beane didn't get enough back.

So who did the A's get back?

Sean Gallagher's a 22-year old righty starting pitcher. He threw eight games out of the Cub bullpen last year and has made ten starts this year, with an ERA of 4.45, but a DERA (defense-adjusted ERA) of 4.86. His homer rate is low in the minors (0.49) but high this year (0.92). His strikeout and walk rates are 7.52 and 3.38, so he's missing bats, but you'd like to see him cut a walk or so off those numbers. His BABIP of .310 looks about right given his line drive percentage (17.9%). So what's Gallagher? How about a younger, cheaper, better Chad Gaudin who's under the A's control for the next four (?) years, and still has one (?) year before he hits arbitration.

Next is Eric Patterson. He's a lefty hitting second baseman with a grand total of 20 big-league games under his belt. He is, of course, the brother of the much-maligned Corey Patterson. His PECOTA had him hitting .270/.340/.441, which around here is what we like to call "Mark Ellis". His walk rates in the minors have been just shy of 10%, but down to just 5.6% this year, while his ISOs have trended up: .145 at AA in 2006, .159 at AAA last year, and .197 this year (though his .388 BABIP is likely fueling some of this). Patterson's already 25 this year, so he's not likely to make any more huge leaps forward, but he does seem like a nice player to have around at second base when the A's don't resign Mark Ellis. (As much as we'd like Ellis to stay, doesn't it seem rather un-A's-like to give a guy who'll be 32 next year a free-agency-fueled extension?)

Third is Matt Murton. Murton's been talked about for a while as an easy "plug him in and let him hit" solution in left field for the Cubs, but they've never really given him a shot. He's already 26, and while he's hitting .298 with an OBP of .391 in Iowa, his slugging his dropped to just .382. This is a guy whose ISOs in the minors were normally in the .150 range, so unless something's gone horribly wrong, we might expect him to hit better than he's showing right now. In fact, given his years of being jerked around, this might the kind of scenery-change trade that gets him back on track. PECOTA had him hitting 288/354/453 this year, producing an EqA that would rank him sixth on this year's A's, just behind Ryan Sweeney.

Finally is the first guy I haven't heard of, Josh Donaldson. Donaldson's 22 this year, a former sandwich pick out of Auburn who plays catcher. Despite his age and college pedigree, he's playing at A-ball after spending last year at the Rookie and Low-A classifications. He hit 346/470/605 last year at Low-A, but he's not exactly tearing up Peoria, hitting just 217/270/349. His BABIP is way down, but so are his walk rate and strikeout rate, so who knows what's going on.

John Sickels had Donaldson as the Cubs' sixth-best prospect coming into the year, and the best catcher not named Geovanny Soto. He gave him a B, which is a nice grade for a guy with just one pro season under his belt. Baseball America ranked Donaldson seventh. Gallagher was fifth on BA's list, with Patterson not making the top-ten. Sickels has Gallagher third and Patterson fourth, both grade-B, with a note that Patterson would be a B+ except for his defense.

So for Harden and Gaudin (a guy whose ERA is deceptively low, given his high walk rate and low strikeout rate; Cubs fans may end up unpleasantly surprised with him), the A's get three of the Cubs eight or so best prospects, just one of whom is a ways away from the majors, as well as a guy who could slot into left field and be a decent power bat right away. A's fans might tear out their hair that Josh Vitters wasn't in the deal, but even for a pitcher of Rich Harden's caliber, asking for Vitters was probably too much. Harden is simply too much of a question mark (still) to get a top-notch prospect in return, especially since he's being traded to the NL, where he'll have to swing the bat and run the bases. Who knows what could happen to him on a slide into second base.

What does this mean for Oakland's roster? I assume Gallagher slots directly into the rotation, since Oakland is now a starter short (where yesterday they were a starter long with Gaudin sitting around not doing much of anything). I hope that Murton now slots in as the everyday left fielder, with Ryan Sweeney in right and Carlos Gonzalez in center. Jack Cust can DH, Em(a)il Brown is the fourth outfielder, and Rajai Davis continues his role as defensive replacement and pinch runner. Oakland had been carrying twelve pitchers, so hopefully they use this opportunity to get back down to eleven, putting Murton on the roster without having to send anyone down. (A bullpen of Street, Embree, Andrew Brown, Ziggy, Jerry Blevins, and Sandy Casilla is a damned good one, and I see no need to go dipping into Sacramento to pull up Dallas Braden.) Eric Patterson is more of a mystery. Do the A's keep him in Oakland as a utility infielder and send Gregorio Petit back down? Even though Patterson can apparently barely even handle second base? Is the acquisition of Patterson a prelude to a trade of Mark Ellis? My guess is that for now, Patterson will be the backup infielder and Petit will go back down to Sacramento. Donaldson will presumably join Kane County, where Jake Smith, a 25-year-old, is currently the starting catcher.

The next question is what happens when Frank Thomas comes back. Three-way platoon for two spots between Cust, Sweeney, and Murton? And what about when Travis Buck gets himself right? And what about Patterson, who may already be transition to the outfield since his infield defense is rocky? The "too many players" problem has never been nearly as big a worry as the "not enough players" problem, though, so I think Billy Beane is probably not fretting overmuch about this.

It is a sad day as an A's fan to see Rich Harden go. I'll root for him in Chicago because he was always a guy you wanted to see succeed. It's a cliche at this point to say that Harden is a guy who looks like he can throw a no-hitter every time out, but it's true. What's even crazier is that people still say that the fact that he's now a two-pitch starter: fastball and changeup. But what a changeup!

Milwaukee's acquisition of CC Sabathia appears to have set off a chain reaction in the NL Central, so the next question is whether the Rich Harden trade sets of a similar chain reaction in the Oakland front office. Mark Ellis? Huston Street? Joe Blanton? Alan Embree? If any of these trades happen, can we please get a third baseman who will outhit Jack Hannahan? Or maybe Eric Patterson is already in the A's designs to be that guy? (Patterson has played nothing but second and outfield in his professional career, so third base may be asking a bit much. But he'd have to hit better than Hannahan, right?)

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 20:07 | |

Tonight's lineup for the Phillies has Jimmy Rollins hitting third. Baseball-Reference tells me that this is the first time Rollins has hit there this year, and the first time he's hit anywhere but first. The Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings tells me that Rollins batting third is a terrible idea. In its list of best lineups, Rollins hits sixth, seventh, or eighth. This makes tons of sense. You know why? Because Jimmy Rollins has a .340 on-base percentage. The only guy with a lower on-base percentage in this lineup (by my estimations using their career numbers combined with this year's numbers to try to eliminate huge flukes like Ryan Howard's bad season thus far) is Pedro Feliz. And it's not like Rollins is making up for it in power, either. He had a .531 SLG last year, but is down to .447 this year, and has a .442 career mark. Even giving him credit for a .460 true SLG, a generous estimate, he should not be hitting in the top half of the lineup, and he most certainly should not be hitting in the lineup's premier spot.

Now, as is usually the case, the manager's actual lineup is far closer to the best-case scenario than the worst case, and the difference between the real lineup and the best one (which would have Pat Burrell's .400 OBP hitting first) is about one run every 25 games, or a little over six runs for the season. It isn't, then, that big a deal. But it's still silly to have one of your lower-half hitters batting third, in the spot that should be occupied by Burrell or Ryan Howard, or even Chris Coste, who's managed near-900 OPS's in two of his three years in the big leagues (of course, his 2008 numbers are subject to decline in the second half of this season; he's also 35, so there's no reason to figure he'll keep getting better or anything).

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 22:21 | |

Here's a very interesting story about the A's chasing a hot Dominican prospect named Michel Inoa. He's apparently going to get a bonus in the $4 million range, which will break international signing records. This is what makes it odd that the A's are apparently winning the battle for his services: their franchise record for such a signing is $350,000, for outfielder Robin Rosario. The Yankees are apparently also interested, which would seem to indicate, "Ok, the Yankees are going to sign him," but the A's are actually outbidding them as it currently stands. I have no idea what this means going forward -- is there something about this kid that makes him so special that the A's are willing to break their old signing bonus record ten-fold? He apparently throws in the '90's with a good curve and change, and he's 6'7", 205 pounds (so he should fill out a bit more), but aren't there lots of physically talented 16-year-olds out there?

Happily, Enrique Rojas reports that Inoa is not interested in a major league deal. I guess he's smart enough to realize that the Wily Mo Pena path is not for him: a fat up-front contract does you no good if you don't get the development time you need.

Robin Rosario, by the way, is currently playing on one of the two Oakland Dominican Summer League teams. He's hitting 182/250/318, but in just 24 plate appearances so far.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 12:01 | |

At least one potentially difficult decision has been obviated by Travis Buck's continued struggles: Ryan Sweeney is back at Buck's expense, the latter having been demoted to make room. This is already Buck's second demotion of the year. At some point, if he doesn't get his swing back, maybe the A's will have to do like the Tigers with Dontrelle and figure out who the best hitting teacher in the organization is and send Buck there.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:44 | |

(My move to the west coast being completed, I'm back. But look for another outage in a few months, when I move again, this time to southern Texas.)

Mike Sweeney is having surgery on his knee, and he's expected to be out for four to six weeks. That Sweeney got hurt and needs surgery should be no surprise: he managed just 134 games over the last two years. With Frank Thomas still out, there isn't really a logjam to be cleared at the DH spot, but it'll help the roster a little bit that both of those guys won't be coming back at the same time. When Thomas comes back, I'd expect him to again be the full-time DH, a Cust-Gonzalez-Buck outfield, Eric Chavez at third, and Jack Hannahan moving to the bench. I think the fact that Em(a)il Brown hasn't played in the last two Angels games isn't a coincidence, but is rather a sign that he's now an extra bat off the bench, and maybe a candidate to be cut when Thomas comes back, since he's not really a better hitter than anyone in the starting lineup (maybe Kurt Suzuki or Bobby Crosby), and he's not a guy who's going to come in defensively, even though Cust and Buck aren't strong outfielders.

Hannahan's lack of bat and lack of future with this team might make him a candidate to be cut as well, but the fact that he can play second and third, and the fact that he's Eric Chavez's backup (and Chavez needs a backup still, I'm sure) will likely keep him around over Brown.

The A's are carrying 12 pitchers again, so maybe Brad Ziegler will go away back to Sacramento when it's Thomas time. I guess the other option is Gregorio Petit, but I'm not sure the A's want to do that: I don't think they see Hannahan as a middle infielder, despite the aforementioned experience at second base, so they likely think of Petit as their utility guy while Hannahan is more their backup corner guy (especially seeing as how the A's are miraculously down to just one first baseman on the roster, with Mike Sweeney and Dan Johnson both gone, although Sweeney is obviously not gone forever).

On the pitching front, though, it's nice to have Andrew Brown back: he was activated today after his appendectomy has kept him out since May 20. Dallas Braden, who never gets to pitch when he gets called up, got sent down.

So with all that free association done, here's my sort of combined advice / prognostication: when Frank Thomas comes back (call it a week from now), the A's get back to 11 pitchers by sending down Ziegler and going with this lineup: Ellis, Cust, Thomas, Chavez, Buck, Crosby, Barton, Gonzalez, Suzuki. Sandy Casilla should be back in about a week as well. Casilla's been untouchable, and I think he's out of options as well, so he'll stay in the majors. This might be cut-bait time on Keith Foulke or Kiko Calero, although it's not really fair to call it "cut-bait" because both have pitched well. But neither of them is likely to be a major force for this team next year or the year after, so maybe one of them is gone. Or maybe Chad Gaudin gets traded.

At some point down the road, Donnie Murphy will be back, but that's easy to take care of, as you just swap in one utility infielder for another and send Gregorio Petit down to AAA.

Joey Devine will also be back at some point, though it's unclear when. He pitched well, so it'd be a shame to send him to AAA again, but I figure that's what'll happen given that the A's would likely to have to lose Calero, Foulke, or Gaudin, whoever survives Casilla's return, to get Devine back on the roster. It's not a terrible move since Devine will still be available at the next pitching injury, and the point of this year is not to assemble the very best roster right this very minute.

Ryan Sweeney's return is when I figure Em(a)il Brown is done with the team. Sweeney is a better bench outfielder than Brown given the current outfield configuration because of his speed and defense. With Carlos Gonzalez up, it looks like he'll basically play the Chris Denorfia role, tag-teaming with Rajai Davis.

Finally, Mike Sweeney's return is the hardest of all on the roster. Fortunately, it's so far off that the A's are bound to suffer another injury and thus be forced to DL someone, allowing Sweeney back on the team. Finally, there's always the possibility of sending Carlos Gonzalez back to AAA, but that seems unlikely: with a player like him, the A's don't seem interested in just bringing him up as an injury replacement, but rather bringing him up when he's ready to play every day and just handing him the job, as it appears they've done. (Though it's hard to tell because his callup coincided with Sweeney's injury, so maybe he really is just here for a few weeks until Sweeney (Ryan) heals up.)

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 18:28 | |

ESPN Page 2 - Lukas: Good riddance, Mike

The linked article is tremendously stupid. Lukas should stick to uniforms. It's internally inconsistent (he refused to play first, and also he sucks at first! Uh, maybe that's why he refused to play first?) and only the gay thing (that he should have used the opportunity to say, "Ok, I'm not gay, but so what if I was?") carries any weight.

I wonder if maybe it's a joke? It's almost too over the top to be believable.

Hat tip to Deadspin.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 21:00 | |

MetsBlog.com » Opinion: Minaya, from Howe to Here

The Yemen Deli sent me this, and this is my email in response.

1. The old market was changing ten years ago, from one that focused on athletes and tools to one that focused on performance.  Beane was part of that, getting cheap guys who could hit but didn't sell jeans.  Then the market changed again, as everyone went "holy shit, OBP".  Beane realized that hitting started becoming overvalued relative to pitching, and had his three-aces years (top draft picks from terrible teams didn't hurt as to Mulder and Zito; Hudson was just a hell of a find).  Beane then realized that everyone knew they needed young pitching, and would overpay for it, so he dealt his young pitching and built a team based on defense: Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, and Mark Ellis is the best defensive infield in baseball if Chavez ever comes back, though Daric Barton at first drags them down a bit.  Mark Kotsay the last few years was tremendous.  None of these guys has hit a lick in years, yet the A's were competitive.  Finally, despite the spread of information about hitting and whatnot, Jack Cust and Frank Thomas still cost the A's almost zero.

2. Players hitting the open market aren't the way that Minaya and Beane have thrived.  The Mets have precisely one major free agent on their team (Beltran), and the A's have none.  More importantly, the "locking them up" phenomenon doesn't reduce "players hitting the open market" because most players are being locked up only through their arbitration years, and occasionally (Evan Longoria) for one or two years beyond that.  Those guys will become free agents exactly when they used to.  They stop being the property of the team that drafted them exactly when they used to.

3. Cleveland, a small market team, inaugurated the idea of buying out the arbitration years of its young players back in the mid-90's.  This isn't anything new.

4. Maybe he's not talking about the arb-buyout contracts at all, but small-market teams actually locking up guys who are heading into free agency?  If that's the case, I can't think of a single example.  One reason for this is because there will never be any examples -- guys are, by definition, not young when they are heading into free agency.  Most are past their peak, only hitting free agency for the first time at around 30.  Only a guy like A-Rod hits free agency as he's entering his peak.

5. The idea that older players are breaking down more now is probably not supported by the evidence.  I'm not going to make a list, but I just don't see any difference now as compared to previous years.

6. The idea that this supposed extra breaking down is because of a lack of PEDs is preposterous.  Most of these old guys have never been linked to a thing in their lives, and most of them never will be.  Remember, something like 93% of players tested negative that year they did the anonymous sampling to see if there should be real drug testing in baseball.  Is it really the case that Carlos Delgado sucks because he's not shooting up anymore?  I highly doubt it.  Hell, Canseco was loaded with that stuff, and he still sucked at the end of his career.

7. Relying on older talent has never been a good strategy.  It works as a supplement, but you always have to have talent coming from elsewhere.  The Mets weren't going to be good because of Delgado and Pedro, they were going to be good because of Wright and Reyes.  And Johan, who's still young because he was rushed to the majors after being a Rule 5 pick.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Baseball at 20:46 | |

Athletic Supporters | MVN - A's Must Find Consistency at the Dish

Consistency, Matthew Nielsen says! That's straight from the Joe Morgan playbook, as is calling out Jack Cust, wondering why he plays every day when he so clearly sucks. Answer? Best OBP on the team, at .426. No on else, aside from Frank Thomas, is even sniffing .400. Slugging at .462. That's tied with Thomas for the team lead. His seven homers lead the team. In short, he plays every day because he's the best offensive player on the team!

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 20:11 | |

It turns out that Chris Denorfia is, in fact, hurt, and that he is the move the A's made to get Rich Harden on the roster -- he heads to the DL. The A's are thus down to four outfielders, and one of those is Jack Cust, who Geren likes to sub for late in the game. This means, though, that when Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, and Cust are all in the game, Geren's going to have to pick his spots carefully regarding pinch-running. He can't just wholesale with Denorfia and Rajai Davis like he did before.

Nice to see the A's bring the bats back to life, by the way. They kind of took a week off, but 12 runs, even if against Sidney Ponson and the Rangers, is nice.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 00:08 | |

The Transaction Guy | MVN - Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » Pitch F/X Profile: Greg Smith

Here's a great piece by Dave Golebiewski at The Transaction Guy. Smith's pitches, in short, have great movement despite not much velocity, and, as David Pinto points out (and as I think is most important given the variety Smith throws), his release point is incredibly consistent.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:46 | |

Good Problems to Have - Part I - Athletics Nation

Here's an interesting piece from notsellingjeans at Athletics Nation about how the A's are unlikely to be sellers in trades because of their hot start -- they'd have to tank enormously to put their record in a position where they could justify selling pieces like Blanton, Mark Ellis, or Justin Duchscherer.

I'm not sure I entirely agree because, supposing the A's do play, say, .460 ball from here on out, and supposing further that the Angels start running away with the West, I think Billy Beane is smart enought to put questions about "waving a white flag" to the side in favor of actually maximizing the talent on the roster for the contention years.

Obviously this is all moot if the A's keep playing well enough to contend.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:42 | |

Donnie Murphy pinch-ran for Frank Thomas today and then played left field. Is Chris Denorfia hurt?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 19:54 | |

SFGate: Oakland Athletics : The Drumbeat : Gaudin to bullpen

Athletic Supporters | MVN - an Oakland Athletics blog » Blog Archive » Gaudin To The Bullpen … For Now

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Gaudin to 'pen to make room for Harden

I saw this from Susan Slusser first: Chad Gaudin is heading out to the bullpen to make room for Rich Harden.  Mychael Urban reports that Gaudin's (a) not happy about this; and (b) worried about what it might do to his health, coming back from surgeries as he is.  I understand the frustration of a guy with an ERA below 2.50 over his last four starts being sent to the bullpen.  But what are you going to do?  Joe Blanton's not going anywhere, you can't bounce Justin Duchscherer around, Greg Smith has been even better than Gaudin, and Dana Eveland ... well, it's not clear to me why Eveland is staying a starter while Gaudin is heading to the 'pen.  It's almost a coin-flip situation, although maybe there's a talent-evaluation component here: the A's pretty much know what they have in Gaudin at this point, but Eveland is still an unknown.  Is this just a hot start?  Are his runs-allowed numbers sustainable given his peripherals?

Melissa Lockard points out that putting Eveland in the bullpen might hamper his confidence -- he's been beat up pretty good the last few times he's made the majors, so to send him out to the sidelines now that he's having success as a starter might impede him mentally.  Lockard also asks why the A's don't move Harden to the bullpen, and her answer is sensible: there's a good chance they're looking to get what they can for him in a trade, and you don't build up a starting pitcher's value by throwing him out of the bullpen.

But you know, remember Jason Isringhausen?  Failed, injury-plagued starter turned dominant reliever after a trade to a new team?  Nobody wants this to happen to Harden, where the A's insist on keeping him in the rotation before they finally just give up on him only to see him have a few great years for someone else in a role that fits him when the A's could just as easily put him in that role themselves.

Keith Foulke is also due back in a few days, and Dallas Braden is likely to get the ax when that happens, heading back to Sacramento.  He somehow avoided the chopping block last time, being kept around over Lenny DiNardo, but I wouldn't expect it to happen again, not with the way Joey Devine has been pitching.  Unfortunately, when Harden needs to be added to the roster, I'm afraid the A's might go back to a seven-man bullpen and send out Chris Denorfia or something.  Here's hoping the A's do the right thing, pat Devine on the butt and say, "Look kid, good job, but we want a six-man bullpen, you're the odd man out, and you're also the guy who'll be up in probably two weeks because of the inevitable injury (Street, Harden, Duchscherer, Gaudin, a random reliever owie) or trade (Blanton, Harden).  So keep it up!"

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 18:42 | |

Baseball Musings: The Oakland Offense

Pinto's basic point: throw strikes and you win the game. This seems dead on. On the other hand, it's been true for at least the last three years, and the A's have still managed to win more than their share of games. For instance, 2006's pennant-winning team lineup included such luminaries as Jason Kendall, Dan Johnson, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Mark Kotsay, Jay Payton, and Marco Scutaro. The team slugged .412, good for second-to-last in the league. (In 2005, they were a little worse pure SLG-wise, but were 10th instead of 13th in the AL.) Yet that 2006 won their first-round series against the Twins.

I still don't think this A's team is going to finish on the top of anything, but I don't think it's the poor hitting that will do them in, especially since I think some of the bats will come around, power-wise, in particular Daric Barton, Bobby Crosby, Jack Cust, and Frank Thomas. I'm not saying the hitting will be good; I just don't think it has to be good in order for them to win. Instead, I think the pitching will eventually fall off: Dana Eveland seems to be pitching over his head, and Sandy Casilla and Andrew Brown have to come back to earth at some point, right? Will Greg Smith finish with a 2.54 ERA? I don't have much confidence that he will.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 13:10 | |

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Duchscherer off DL and back on hill

So Justin Duchscherer is back, starting today against the Mariners, although it's not clear what the corresponding roster move will be. With Lenny DiNardo presumably moving back to the pen, I'd guess Dallas Braden will be sent back down? I can't imagine a need for two lefty longer-relievers. Or maybe DiNardo sticks in the rotation, Braden stays in the pen, and Greg Smith heads down for more seasoning. It's awfully hard to send down a guy with a 2.88 ERA, though, even if he's been a bit hit-lucky.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski in Oakland A's at 11:11 | |