Beaneball - Baseball

Rich Harden back; Denorfia to the DL

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Mon, 12 May 2008 00:08:21 -0500

It turns out that Chris Denorfia is, in fact, hurt, and that he is the move the A's made to get Rich Harden on the roster -- he heads to the DL. The A's are thus down to four outfielders, and one of those is Jack Cust, who Geren likes to sub for late in the game. This means, though, that when Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, and Cust are all in the game, Geren's going to have to pick his spots carefully regarding pinch-running. He can't just wholesale with Denorfia and Rajai Davis like he did before.

Nice to see the A's bring the bats back to life, by the way. They kind of took a week off, but 12 runs, even if against Sidney Ponson and the Rangers, is nice.

Pitch F/X analysis of Greg Smith

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:46:37 -0500

The Transaction Guy | MVN - Most Valuable Network Â» Blog Archive Â» Pitch F/X Profile: Greg Smith

Here's a great piece by Dave Golebiewski at The Transaction Guy. Smith's pitches, in short, have great movement despite not much velocity, and, as David Pinto points out (and as I think is most important given the variety Smith throws), his release point is incredibly consistent.

Will the A's be sellers?

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:42:23 -0500

Good Problems to Have - Part I - Athletics Nation

Here's an interesting piece from notsellingjeans at Athletics Nation about how the A's are unlikely to be sellers in trades because of their hot start -- they'd have to tank enormously to put their record in a position where they could justify selling pieces like Blanton, Mark Ellis, or Justin Duchscherer.

I'm not sure I entirely agree because, supposing the A's do play, say, .460 ball from here on out, and supposing further that the Angels start running away with the West, I think Billy Beane is smart enought to put questions about "waving a white flag" to the side in favor of actually maximizing the talent on the roster for the contention years.

Obviously this is all moot if the A's keep playing well enough to contend.

Denorfia?

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Wed, 07 May 2008 19:54:54 -0500

Donnie Murphy pinch-ran for Frank Thomas today and then played left field. Is Chris Denorfia hurt?

Chad Gaudin to the bullpen

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:42:44 -0500

SFGate: Oakland Athletics : The Drumbeat : Gaudin to bullpen

Athletic Supporters | MVN - an Oakland Athletics blog Â» Blog Archive Â» Gaudin To The Bullpen â¦ For Now

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Gaudin to 'pen to make room for Harden

I saw this from Susan Slusser first: Chad Gaudin is heading out to the bullpen to make room for Rich Harden. Mychael Urban reports that Gaudin's (a) not happy about this; and (b) worried about what it might do to his health, coming back from surgeries as he is. I understand the frustration of a guy with an ERA below 2.50 over his last four starts being sent to the bullpen. But what are you going to do? Joe Blanton's not going anywhere, you can't bounce Justin Duchscherer around, Greg Smith has been even better than Gaudin, and Dana Eveland ... well, it's not clear to me why Eveland is staying a starter while Gaudin is heading to the 'pen. It's almost a coin-flip situation, although maybe there's a talent-evaluation component here: the A's pretty much know what they have in Gaudin at this point, but Eveland is still an unknown. Is this just a hot start? Are his runs-allowed numbers sustainable given his peripherals?

Melissa Lockard points out that putting Eveland in the bullpen might hamper his confidence -- he's been beat up pretty good the last few times he's made the majors, so to send him out to the sidelines now that he's having success as a starter might impede him mentally. Lockard also asks why the A's don't move Harden to the bullpen, and her answer is sensible: there's a good chance they're looking to get what they can for him in a trade, and you don't build up a starting pitcher's value by throwing him out of the bullpen.

But you know, remember Jason Isringhausen? Failed, injury-plagued starter turned dominant reliever after a trade to a new team? Nobody wants this to happen to Harden, where the A's insist on keeping him in the rotation before they finally just give up on him only to see him have a few great years for someone else in a role that fits him when the A's could just as easily put him in that role themselves.

Keith Foulke is also due back in a few days, and Dallas Braden is likely to get the ax when that happens, heading back to Sacramento. He somehow avoided the chopping block last time, being kept around over Lenny DiNardo, but I wouldn't expect it to happen again, not with the way Joey Devine has been pitching. Unfortunately, when Harden needs to be added to the roster, I'm afraid the A's might go back to a seven-man bullpen and send out Chris Denorfia or something. Here's hoping the A's do the right thing, pat Devine on the butt and say, "Look kid, good job, but we want a six-man bullpen, you're the odd man out, and you're also the guy who'll be up in probably two weeks because of the inevitable injury (Street, Harden, Duchscherer, Gaudin, a random reliever owie) or trade (Blanton, Harden). So keep it up!"

David Pinto on the A's offense

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Tue, 06 May 2008 13:10:15 -0500

Baseball Musings: The Oakland Offense

Pinto's basic point: throw strikes and you win the game. This seems dead on. On the other hand, it's been true for at least the last three years, and the A's have still managed to win more than their share of games. For instance, 2006's pennant-winning team lineup included such luminaries as Jason Kendall, Dan Johnson, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Mark Kotsay, Jay Payton, and Marco Scutaro. The team slugged .412, good for second-to-last in the league. (In 2005, they were a little worse pure SLG-wise, but were 10th instead of 13th in the AL.) Yet that 2006 won their first-round series against the Twins.

I still don't think this A's team is going to finish on the top of anything, but I don't think it's the poor hitting that will do them in, especially since I think some of the bats will come around, power-wise, in particular Daric Barton, Bobby Crosby, Jack Cust, and Frank Thomas. I'm not saying the hitting will be good; I just don't think it has to be good in order for them to win. Instead, I think the pitching will eventually fall off: Dana Eveland seems to be pitching over his head, and Sandy Casilla and Andrew Brown have to come back to earth at some point, right? Will Greg Smith finish with a 2.54 ERA? I don't have much confidence that he will.

Duchscherer back

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 11:11:33 -0500

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: Duchscherer off DL and back on hill

So Justin Duchscherer is back, starting today against the Mariners, although it's not clear what the corresponding roster move will be. With Lenny DiNardo presumably moving back to the pen, I'd guess Dallas Braden will be sent back down? I can't imagine a need for two lefty longer-relievers. Or maybe DiNardo sticks in the rotation, Braden stays in the pen, and Greg Smith heads down for more seasoning. It's awfully hard to send down a guy with a 2.88 ERA, though, even if he's been a bit hit-lucky.

Andrew Brown? Whither Dallas Braden?

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:56:29 -0500

It's currently a nine-run lead for the A's. Greg Smith pitched well, but he's done after seven innings. In comes new mopup man Dallas Braden, right? Nope! It's Andrew Brown, who hasn't allowed an earned run yet this year. Maybe Braden will pitch the ninth, but it seems silly to use him in a one-inning role. He's a starter in AAA, so his arm is perfectly well stretched out to throw two innings at a time. Especially when the results don't really matter. Did I mention that it's a nine-run lead? And that Justin Morneau isn't even in the ballgame anymore?

I guess, by the way, the Frank Thomas thing really worked out. Eleven runs in a game that Francisco Liriano started for Minnesota looks pretty good to me. Thomas has walked twice and reached on an error. As for the lineup, I'm not sure I like it so much: Sweeney started at first, gimpy legs and all; and Rajai Davis was the center fielder, with Chris Denorfia in left and Em(a)il Brown in right.

On the other hand, it's a day game following a night game and Liriano is, on paper at least, a tough lefty, so maybe sitting Daric Barton (he's in the game now anyway), Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust (who's struggling and isn't in need of development in any case) isn't such a bad idea. But the lineup definitely warrants keeping an eye on.

Frank Thomas an Athletic

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:12:56 -0500

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: Official Info: A's agree to terms with DH Frank Thomas

I see how it all comes together now. Eric Chavez is transferred to the 60-day to clear a 40-man spot, and Travis Buck is put on the 15-day to clear a 25-man spot. This also explains a little better the Rajai Davis waiver claim, since with Buck out, a new fifth outfielder will be handy. Of course, the Mike Sweeney question still isn't answered. Is he basically a pinch-hitter now? That's fine by me, I guess, since the A's were just taking a flier on him in the first place, although you do hate to see the A's do the dirty on a solid citizen like Sweeney. And what happens to him when Buck comes back? I'd hope that the A's would at that point see the sense in DFAing Rajai Davis, but we'll see, I suppose.

The lineup now is presumably Em(a)il Brown in right, Sweeney in center, Cust in left, Barton at first, Ellis at second, Crosby at short, Hannahan at third (although Donnie Murphy will get more time if Hannahan continues to struggle both with his hitting and with errors), Suzuki behind the plate, and Thomas at DH. The bench, then, is Mike Sweeney, who can pinch-hit for Hannahan and Sweeney; Denorfia, who can pinch-run, play defense for Cust, and spot-start anywhere in the outfield; and Rajai Davis, who can pinch-run and play defense (if he gets any starts, I will throw things). Donnie Murphy and Rob Bowen's roles are obvious.

Chavez is now eligible to come off the DL at the end of May, so you have to wonder whether we'll see him at all this year.

Anyway, this is all pretty exciting, since Thomas will make the pro-rated minimum (i.e. he's basically free) and he'll almost certainly outhit Sweeney. Meanwhile, 1/8 of the way through the season, the A's are +18 in run differential, are tied for the second-best record in the AL, and have allowed the fewest runs in the AL despite no pitchers in the top-20 in baseball in VORP (Dana Eveland is 21st). Seattle and Texas clearly aren't that good, so the A's are putting themselves in a position to make a surprise run if the Angels falter (e.g. John Lackey doesn't come back fully effective, or they keep suffering injuries to players like Lackey and Howie Kendrick, or Garret Anderson gets 650 plate appearances). And of course this is all without mortgaging the future in any way. Thomas isn't blocking anybody, just like Mike Sweeney wasn't.

Poor Dan Johnson

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:36:57 -0500

Rays designate 1B/DH Dan Johnson for assignment - mlb - SI.com

This is just terrible for poor Dan Johnson. Dan Johnson didn't even get into a game with the Rays before they DFA'd him to make room for the newly acquired Gabe Gross (who the Brewers felt the need to trade to make room for Tony Gwynn, Jr., who was coming off the DL). Andrew Friedman referred to this as "an awkward situation", which is an awesome way of putting it. But he basically said that they could carry Johnson, but he wasn't going to be getting playing time anyway, so why bother?

Is there really no one out there who could use a decent backup first baseman? Just looking through the Baseball Prospectus depth charts and team audits, I see a number of teams that might want Johnson's stick, such as it is, off the bench. I guess the real problem is that in this era of short benches, there's no room for a guy who's limited to one position and he's not a defensive-replacement kind of guy at that spot, either. So you'd use him to pinch hit for a middle-infielder or a catcher or you'd play him at first after you pinch-run for your real first baseman. That's really not that valuable when you realize that Johnson's not the kind of high-contact hitter you might want as a PH, nor is he likely to be very good if he gets an extended run due to injury or something: his PECOTA weighted mean is just .258 / .361 / .443.

Rajai Davis in, Kirk Saarloos out

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:54:58 -0500

The Official Site of The Oakland Athletics: News: A's claim outfielder Davis from Giants

So my last post mentioned that Dallas Braden wasn't likely to get many innings given that he was basically the second long-man on the team. But now the A's have claimed Rajai Davis on waivers and DFA'd Kirk Saarloos, so it looks like Braden will actually be the full-time long reliever (whatever that means), and maybe spot starter in case of injury, at least until Justin Duchscherer comes back, allowing Lenny DiNardo to head back into the pen (and presumably sending Braden back into the rotation in Sacramento).

Claiming Davis is a little odd. This gives the A's six outfielders. I guess he'll basically get the time that Chris Denorfia has been getting, as the defensive replacement and pinch-runner, but that opens the question of what Denorfia is for. One pinch-runner / defensive guy for Jack Cust and the other one a pinch-runner for Mike Sweeney? That sounds fine, I suppose, given how many close games the A's are likely to play this year, between their weak offense and their strong pitching. But more importantly, Davis doesn't really have a future, not even in the way that Chris Denorfia might have, so it seems weird to use games and at-bats and appearances on him when those could be going to Denorfia or Ryan Sweeney or whomever.

Dallas Braden replaces Keith Foulke

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:35:14 -0500

It turns out that Dallas Braden has been called up to replace Keith Foulke, not Jerry Blevins. At least I got the left-handed part right.

I wouldn't expect Braden to get that much work. It'd be silly to use him as a specialist, since he's a starter in the minors, Kirk Saarloos seems to be the long-man, and Alan Embree, Sandy Casilla, and Andrew Brown basically have the seventh and eighth innings of games they lead locked down. Plus there's still Joey Devine, who's better than Braden. So I guess Braden's the backup mopup guy. Which isn't such a bad thing to be, right? I mean, he's still a big leaguer, and I'm not.

Keith Foulke -- pain in the neck

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 09:58:19 -0500

Keith Foulke has landed on the DL with a stiff neck, but the A's haven't made another move yet to replace him. The A's are at eleven pitchers already, so it's not clear that Foulke's replacement needs to be a pitcher. Still, I'd guess the replacement will be 6'6" lefty Jerry Blevins, who pitched for the A's last year and is currently in Sacramento. He'd probably only be up until Justin Duchscherer is ready to come off the DL, but that should give Bob Geren a chance or two to throw him into some games and see what happens.

Can I just mention, by the way, that the A's are 12-8, tied with the Angels for first in the West and a game behind Boston for the best record in the AL? Awesome.

Frank Thomas gone -- where to now?

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 12:58:19 -0500

Frank Thomas has actually been released by the Blue Jays after he complained about getting his playing time cut. He apparently thought the benching was motivated by his $10 million plate-appearances based vesting option. It's hard to say, of course, given the lack of insight into the front office machinations, but one does have to wonder: Thomas is a historically great hitter who's had a poor 72 plate appearances this year. He wasn't going to hit like this all year, and Matt Stairs certainly won't outhit him, as much as I love Wonder Hamster.

It's really too bad to see J.P. Ricciardi falling apart like this. I thought Billy Beane had a chance to be baseball's Bill Walsh, but given Ricciardi's inability to put together a winning team and L.A.'s inability to accept that Paul DePodesta provided the Dodgers their best chance at winning, it looks like that won't be happening anytime soon.

Here's Ricciardi on the decision: "I don't know that we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for somebody to kick in because we can't let this league or this division get away from us." This is disingenuous enough to make me wonder whether Thomas's allegations about his vesting option might contain some truth. The division isn't going to "get away from" them. It's gotten away. There are at least two teams better than the Jays in the division (New York, Boston), and one more that might be better (Tampa). And that "two to three months" comment is almost certainly an exaggeration.

In any case, the question becomes "whither Frank Thomas?" Who needs a DH? Let's trip through the standings. Boston's got Papi. The Angels have enough trouble getting all their outfielders at bats without having to worry about permanently clogging up their DH spot. (Note that this isn't a good reason for Anaheim not to do this -- Thomas is a better hitter than Garrett Anderson, Gary Matthews, and Torii Hunter -- but it is a reason why it won't happen.) Baltimore? If you're willing to send down Luis Hernandez until Brian Roberts gets traded and shunt Aubrey Huff and Kevin Millar into permanent bench roles, this would work. But what would Frank Thomas want with a team that might lose 100 games? A repeat engagement with Oakland? Between Mike Sweeney and Jack Cust, the A's are full up at DH, and it's not like they need a guy like Thomas to put them over the top in the division. They're not winning it. (That said, if Thomas is still hanging around out there later in the year and Sweeney or Cust hasn't picked it up, and the A's are interested in making a push at the division, this would be intriguing. But I don't anticipate Thomas still being available in two months.) Kansas City? Now that's interesting! Push Ross Gload to the bench and Mark Teahen or Billy Butler to first and install Thomas at DH? Boy, that's one hell of an offense. Combine that with a suddenly dangerous rotation and a shutdown closer and you've got a really fun team in a tough division. I'd root for them.

The Yankees? They're in the same situation as the Angels, but worse, given that their extra outfielders aren't valuable defenders the way the Angels' are. Plus they've got Giambi's cranky glove and Jorge Posada's aches and pains to deal with. No, I don't really see it, as much as it might help them. Seattle? Goodness what an update Thomas would be over Jose Vidro. They'd have to be willing to tell Vidro to take up a permanent spot on the bench, which won't make him so happy, but the on-field results ought to be enormous. It's a crime that Jose Vidro is an every-day DH in this league. Tampa? Hell, they just claimed Dan Johnson, so they're obviously ok with an immobile slugger type hanging around. But Johnson's different, of course, because he didn't just get released for complaining about a lack of playing time. If you sign Thomas, you've got to start him. I guess what happens is that Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes become the right field platoon, which isn't such a horrible situation. Minnesota's got plenty of room for him in the lineup (Craig Monroe?), but they're not really in a mode where they need to win today, so I'm not sure there's a lot of call for blowing a load of cash on Thomas. Cleveland's got Pronk, so they're out. If Texas wants to push Frank Catalanotto and David Murphy into part-time roles and install Thomas full-time as the DH, there's room for an upgrade there. Plus the West is wide open, so with a Big Hurt, a little luck, and an additional pitcher, they could be dangerous. Finally, Detroit? They've already got Gary Sheffield. Could they push him to left to knock Jacque Jones out of the lineup? I don't know if Sheffield is a DH by choice or necessity at this point, so it's hard to say. It might not be a bad idea, though.

So what'd we come up with? Kansas City, Seattle, Tampa, and Texas? I'd really enjoy seeing Frank Thomas with the Royals or Rays, although that might just be my hopes than an AL West rival doesn't vastly improve its offense in one fell swoop a week from now.

Dan Johnson officially gone

jasonw@beaneball.org (Jason Wojciechowski) — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:39:35 -0500

So 10 days later, there wasn't enough interest in Dan Johnson to actually get anything for him in a trade, so the A's waived him, and Tampa Bay has claimed him. I guess the theory is that Johnson is better than Nathan Haynes or Justin Ruggiano.