Where Things Stand

By Jason Wojciechowski on December 22, 2018 at 12:04 PM

The A's have Made Some Moves the last few days, one of which fills a hole I didn't realize the team had and the other of which was wildly necessary, if uninspiring. This means it's a good time to take stock of the roster, even though more moves are surely to come. (There remain, for instance, more than 30 starting pitchers unsigned at all levels of the market, from Kendall Graveman through Dallas Keuchel.)

At catcher, the roster right now contains Josh Phegley, who hits righty and is essentially a replacement-level player, and Chris Herrmann, a new acquisition who bats lefty and doesn't do much more on defense but does play the outfield. Both are out of options. That sounds like a platoon, with the hope perhaps being that Sean Murphy will arrive and push Phegley off the roster on the sooner side of later. The best remaining free-agent catcher is Yasmani Grandal, who is not a realistic option; the best remaining free-agent catcher is probably Martin Maldonado or Matt Wieters, depending on whether you prioritize offense or defense. You're probably not going to sign either one only to shove them aside for Murphy the way you can Phegley; on the other hand, Murphy could probably use a full season at Triple-A anyway, and Phegley probably isn't helping a playoff push the way Maldonado or Wieters might.

Around the infield, three positions appear set the same way they were in October: Matt Chapman at third, Marcus Semien at shortstop, and Matt Olson at first. Chad Pinder is around to back up everywhere, Mark Canha can help out at first base (especially if the A's decide they can't tolerate Olson's .381 career slugging against lefties), and the newly acquired Jurickson Profar can also slide around everywhere. Second base is presumably Profar's main slot, but if Franklin Barreto is still on the squad come March, it's possible he could play himself into a starting role that has Profar lining up as a super-utility player. If Barreto makes the squad, it will come at the expense of either Canha or Chad Pinder (both of whom have options), so Profar would likely play against all lefties (covering for Nick Martini or Olson or Dustin Fowler, depending on what kind of configuration the A's carry) and could otherwise rotate around giving days off to Barreto, Semien, Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, and even Ramon Laureano (with someone else, presumably, sliding into center field), as well as stepping into the lineup full time every time there's an injury. You're probably not going to get 500 plate appearances out of him this way, but maybe you don't need to if you're paying him $3–4 million and gave up a decent draft pick and a mediocre prospect for him.

Even if Profar is the full-time second baseman, Barreto could see opportunities via injury similar to Jed Lowrie swapping over to third base last year to cover Matt Chapman's absence, except that this time, Barreto could fill in for Profar while Profar covers almost any position.

In the outfield, Ramon Laureano probably earned the Opening Day center field job with his 2018 performance, and Stephen Piscotty is your every-day right fielder. In left, it's hard to say no to Nick Martini's .397 OBP, though Baseball Prospectus' new metric, Deserved Runs Created, is skeptical. Dustin Fowler will get more chances to win a major-league job, and his defense might be a better fit in the corner anyway. There's always Canha, too. If the A's don't like the looks of a Martini-Fowler-Canha battle, they could look to the middle range of the free-agent market: Melky Cabrera, Derek Dietrich (who also has positional flexibility), Curtis Granderson, and Robbie Grossman remain available. If these players underwhelm, well, that's the A's.

On the pitching side, who the hell knows. Part of the problem is that we don't know, and probably won't know until the roster really solidifies, what kind of strategy the A's are going to roll out. All openers all the time? Two openers, two normal starters, and one bullpen day?

What we can say is that there are a number of near-locks for the roster: Blake Treinen, Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney, Lou Trivino, Ryan Buchter, Yusmeiro Petit, Daniel Mengden, and Mike Fiers all have some combination of talent, contract, and options that make it likely, from where things stand at present, that we'll see them on Opening Day. That's five short-burst folks, one multi-inning guy who's still clearly a reliever, and three more traditional starters. That leaves five spots open, and at present it seems likely that they'd be filled with Liam Hendriks (who's out of options and who pitched well after his DFA last year) and some mix of Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, Chris Bassitt, Ryan Dull, JB Wendelken, Tanner Anderson, and Paul Blackburn. Montas, Brooks and Bassitt are out of options, but would not be huge losses if they were cut, except that the A's don't have anyone around to replace them. James Kaprielian could put himself in the mix if he's healthy, notwithstanding that he hasn't pitched above High-A, and Jesus Luzardo seems certain to debut at some point this year, but seems just as certain to be held down for at least a few weeks, and more likely a few months. AJ Puk could be an option later in the year as well.

What that adds up to is that it's impossible to imagine the A's not making at least one more pitching move this offseason, whether through trade or mid-level free-agent deal. The A's best starter right now, Fiers, is a no. 4. The rest of the "rotation" are no. 5s at best. The situation is dire enough to make one grumble about missing out on the chance to give Lance Lynn a three-year deal.

Just as much as the position side seems more or less set from 1 to 12, outside of some wiggle at catcher and questions about left field and second base (all of which can be answered competently in-house without any more moves being made), the pitching situation remains incredibly fluid, and almost not worth speculating on outside of pointing to Treinen in the closer role and Soria as the main setup guy. And even then, might this be the year, with no fewer than three Proven Closers on board, that the A's get wild with the bullpen roles and put Treinen into more of an Andrew Miller/Josh Hader position? I won't necessarily suggest that's the right approach, but it's certainly a possible one, and therefore highlights just how little we know what the A's pitching staff is going to look like four months from now, much less six or eight.