Predictions revisited

By Jason Wojciechowski on September 11, 2005 at 4:58 PM

Oakland's back on the ball a little bit here, having taken two in a row from Texas in Arlington. Both games could have gone either way, though, so the A's aren't really doing a lot of inspiring work out on the field. This could easily be a three-game lead for Anaheim right now.

Since the White Sox are supposedly the best team in the American League (though I'll predict they lose in four games or fewer in the first round of the playoffs. And no, it doesn't matter who they're playing), it'd be nice to see them not get swept, in Chicago, by the Angels. Especially since the A's are matched up against Kenny Rogers today, and all they have to counter him is Joe Kennedy (who hasn't been bad, but I don't see good things happening in Arlington today).

With 21 games left for the A's and Angels (and many teams), how close are my predictions from the beginning of the year?

The format will bet his (because I don't want to make a table, that's why!): Team, Predicted wins, Wins now, Record needed to match the prediction.

Boston, 98, 83, 15-6 Yankees, 97, 79, 18-3 Baltimore, 87, 66, 21-0 Toronto, 81, 71, 10-11 Tampa Bay, 66, 59, 7-12

White Sox, 85, 87, XXXX Cleveland, 81, 81, 0-20 Minnesota, 88, 73, 15-6 Detroit, 73, 64, 9-13 Kansas City, 72, 46, XXXX

Anaheim, 91, 80, 11-10 Oakland, 89, 79, 10-11 Texas, 75, 69, 6-14 Seattle, 70, 61, 9-12

Atlanta, 92, 82, 10-10 Florida, 84, 76, 8-12 Philadelphia, 91, 74, 17-3 Washington, 69, 73, XXXX Mets, 78, 70, 8-12

St. Louis, 95, 91, 4-15 Houston, 92, 76, 16-5 Milwaukee, 78, 70, 8-12 Cubs, 83, 70, 13-7 Cincinnati, 70, 65, 5-16 Pittsburgh, 62, 57, 5-16

San Diego, 84, 71, 13-8 Arizona, 69, 65, 4-15 Dodgers, 84, 64, 20-1 San Francisco, 70, 64, 6-15 Colorado, 71, 56, 15-6

The teams that make me look good (likely to be within a few games of the prediction): San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Mets, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, Toronto, Tampa Bay.

Teams that make me look bad (impossibilities and virtual impossibilities): Colorado, Dodgers, Houston, St. Louis, Washington, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cleveland, White Sox, Yankees, Baltimore.

That's nine pretty good versus eleven pretty bad, which leaves ten in the middle. Would a random chooser do better or worse than this? I'd guess about the same, which means that I'm no better than a dumb computer. I guess I'll stick with law school.

blog comments powered by Disqus